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Set of 3's Call or Fold on river?

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Set of 3's Call or Fold on river? - Thu Jan 12, 2012, 06:58 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114


Hi! guys, we have no solid reads on the opp. After being passive the whole hand suddenly the opp shows aggression by shoving on the river. By calling pot size bet on the turn you would expect the opp to be at least drawing to the nuts which As on the river takes out of the equation. Qs,10s is possible as it gives the opp additional outs on the turn but unlikely or 5s,2s is another possibility.

Obviously pot odds are too good to fold our hand on the river as I think we only need to be right about 1/3 of times in this situation to make this call profitable. What other factors do we need to take into consideration to make our decision in similar spots?

Cheers
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 01:38 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post


Hi! guys, we have no solid reads on the opp. After being passive the whole hand suddenly the opp shows aggression by shoving on the river. By calling pot size bet on the turn you would expect the opp to be at least drawing to the nuts which As on the river takes out of the equation. Qs,10s is possible as it gives the opp additional outs on the turn but unlikely or 5s,2s is another possibility.

Obviously pot odds are too good to fold our hand on the river as I think we only need to be right about 1/3 of times in this situation to make this call profitable. What other factors do we need to take into consideration to make our decision in similar spots?

Cheers
Hello Dedeyez!

Looking through this, you are in a sick spot with no reads in my opinion...

As played:

The way I see it is pretty simple- I am going to call here most all the time based on simple SPR thoughts.

The reason I say this is a sick spot is that my willingness to call here is based entirely on MY personal willingness to accept high variance into my cash game play. To me, the fact I only need to be right that this is a bluff 1 in 3 times is enough to let me make the call; if I lost to a suck out or was crushed all along, so be it...

Your willingness to accept a loss here may be totally different than mine though, and facing a loss of about $3.69 of the $6.50 still in your stack, the river card may well represent ENOUGH of a threat that you are un-willing to stack off without info, even with an SPR going to the turn of around 3, and under 1 going to the river, after a bet on the turn. There really are not a lot of hands that could have reasonably stayed for the river that did not get there to beat our bottom set after all; some maybe, but not a lot.

So I suggest you fall back on the K.I.S.S principle (keep it simple, stupid), and for me that means to go with my gut and call. You might NOT see it the same way though (not saying you do or don't). We simply lack the info we need to tilt us one way or the other really, so it is pretty much a 50/50 proposition (without info) as to which one is better for us long term. We are just guessing which is best.

What you might be able to do differently:

It is pretty clear to see after the fact that your real "decision point" here is your turn bet in my opinion.

If you have ANY intention of folding to any sort of scary card, you simply cannot make that bet pot sized. Doing so builds the pot too much to allow a fold on any river card (SPR to the river is under 1 with a call).

Checking behind with a set on a board where the villain has called a raise to continue, thus allowing a free card, may not SEEM like a decent option, but a case can be made for doing so if you have intent of folding at least SOMETIMES on the river. You lack info to do anything else EXCEPT pay off like a slot machine if he out flopped you, or if he spikes the river, after making a turn bet pot size though; at least not unless you want to risk a HUGE mistake of losing the whole pot after putting a good chunk of chips in.

But do you HAVE to bet here to ensure the villain might pay off with less?

Consider...

- A check behind on the turn allows the villain to widen his call range to pay off a river value bet by you if a scare card does NOT show; he checks, you vbet, and he may now call on lots of weaker hands that may have folded if you barrel a third time on the river.

You essentially make the same profit vs. worse hands by getting more river calls than you'd make by barreling 3 times and seeing him fold many hands to the river 3rd barrel, as you'd make by barreling twice getting called, and seeing him fold the river because of your apparent strength.

- A check behind may SAVE you money if he is not drawing at all (he has a better set), or if he spikes his draw and decides to bet SMALLER because you under-repped your set on the turn.

By checking the turn and under-repping the strength of your set, you control the pot size a bit (although an SPR of 3 is still gunna see you stack off a lot on over pairs), and make it SEEM like the strength of your hand is not one that you will pay off on to a jam. This could result in a smaller vbet by a better hand, one that might be call-able with your real strength but also be less costly for you.

If you have zero intention of folding the river no matter what comes Dedeyez, then in my opinion your line is perfectly fine. But if you want to leave room to POSSIBLY fold the river, or if you want to possibly save a little bit of money without giving up on the whole pot in case your were out flopped or out drawn, you might want to think about checking back the turn here...

...the money is just too shallow to bet this turn without sticking yourself for whatever the villain might fire on the river, and your info is just not enough to tell you whether he will be bluffing often enough to make a call for the last of his stack profitable in my opinion.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 02:29 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 09:25 AM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
As played I think you're stuck. given you only have to be right 1/3 of the time.
I' not making a turn bet, unless I plan AT THAT POINT to get it in on the river regaurdless.
btw It doesn't have to just be just flushes, straights, and bluffs that make the move he made on the river either.two pair will be there a %age of the time as well. so I think its a call, taking that ratio into concideration (but make that descision b4 your turn bet and spots like this become less difficult) pretty sick if you haven't already made that descision.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 09:28 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 01:29 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

Just so people can see the actual math on the river call, here it is:

We have to call 3.69 into a pot of 11.89 We can divide the call by the total final pot size to determine the break even point (EV neutral... if the call is right more often it will be profitable, less often and it will be a net loser). 3.69/15.58 (final pot size) = .237 or 23.7% of the time is our break even point.

You can check your math by verifying that the EV of the call is zero at this % over 100 trials:

23.7 times we win the $11.89 pot for a total gain of $281.79
76.3 times we lose our $3.69 call for a total loss of -$281.55
Net EV ~ 0 over the 100 trials (there's a small difference due to rounding of the call %)

You can also use the pot odds to approximate this in game. 11.89 - 3.69 = 3.2-1 the pot is laying you. With pot odds of 3-1, you have to win 1 time out of 4 trials to break even (losing your 1x call 3/4ths of the time, and winning the 3x pot 1/4th of the time). So with 3-1 pot odds the break even point is 25%. With a bit better odds that we have here (3.2-1) the break even point is a bit less than 25%. Looking at it this way is a bit easier to do in game on the fly, and approximating is fine, you don't need to know in game precisely 23.7%, just knowing it's "a bit less than 25%" will do for your decision making process.

I would call btw unless the villain is a complete nit. A nit is going to have the nuts here or close too it virtually always, so there's no way our set is good 25% of the time (vs. a nit it's not good even 10% of the time imo). Vs. most other players, they will sometimes have a flush for sure, but they will also sometimes have aces up, and maybe have a few random bluffs repping the scare card. So without reads I'd say either we're good easily often enough, or it's pretty close most of the time. If it is close, it's usually better to chose the action that if wrong, is only a small mistake and not a big one. Losing $3.69 calling with the worst hand is a much smaller mistake than folding the best hand in a $12 pot.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 01:32 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 01:42 PM
(#5)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi,
If it is close, it's usually better to chose the action that if wrong, is only a small mistake and not a big one. Losing $3.69 calling with the worst hand is a much smaller mistake than folding the best hand in a $12 pot.

Dave
also very prudent. Thnx Dave
 
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Sat Jan 14, 2012, 12:16 AM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I find this hand interesting, it's such a close call. I've often seen cash game players bet any pair on the flop, opp could have a 4, K or a medium pair (3 is not likely since 3 are accounted for). On the turn, he checks but still calls a fairly hefty raise by you. After the river, A4 crossed my mind as well as AK (a lot of bad cash players won't fold big slick).

Somehow I can't see him having a flush draw, but this might just be my inner nit. Bottom line, I'm making the call here, to me having the read is well worth the price (your BR may have different variance). If he's shoving with two pair here, I want to know so I can follow him around!! Really interesting spot.

 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 06:42 PM
(#7)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Thanks for your comments guys. I did call on river and you would be please to know that we were good as the opp was goofing around w/ K,2o. There were couple of reasons for calling. Firstly I felt the pot odds were too good fold in this spot and I kind of committed myself by betting almost the pot on the turn. 1x lead by the opp was very strange, either he has a monster or a very weak hand. I mean the opp could be playing K,K tricky but I doubt it cos it is tough to play K,K out of position vs two opps. The A,K does not make sense either cos with strong hand like that I would expect to hear from the opp either pre-flop or on the flop unless the opp is very passive. If that is the case then why suddenly on the river the opp becomes suddenly very aggressive. So on the river I felt either the opp has the stone cold nuts or complete air.

The reason behind post the hand was how to avoid putting yourself in tough spot such as this one on the river. As Dave suggested it would have been better to take pot control line on the turn once our pot size bet is called by the opp as set of 3's on the flop is a good hand but not a monster. So in hindsight I think my bet sizes on the flop n turn were a bit large which put us in awkward spot on the river.

Once again thanks for your comments guys.

Cheers
 

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