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Did i miss turn value here?

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Did i miss turn value here? - Sun Jan 15, 2012, 02:49 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
PokerStars Hand #73870942027: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05 USD) - 2012/01/15 0:14:31 ET
Table 'Mizuho III' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: v0ero0v ($6.16 in chips)
Seat 2: Johnyboy756 ($4.46 in chips)
Seat 3: Foxtel21 ($4.95 in chips)
Seat 4: TargaMini ($5.94 in chips)
Seat 5: Nashy1996 ($7.93 in chips)
Seat 6: Mojo8 ($12.85 in chips)
Mojo8: posts small blind $0.02
v0ero0v: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Nashy1996 [Qs Qh]
Johnyboy756: calls $0.05
Foxtel21: folds
TargaMini: raises $0.10 to $0.15
Nashy1996: raises $0.40 to $0.55
Mojo8: folds
v0ero0v: folds
Johnyboy756: calls $0.50
TargaMini: calls $0.40
*** FLOP *** [7s 9h 5s]
Johnyboy756: checks
TargaMini: bets $0.65
Nashy1996: calls $0.65
Johnyboy756: calls $0.65
*** TURN *** [7s 9h 5s] [Js]
Johnyboy756: checks
TargaMini: checks
Nashy1996: checks
*** RIVER *** [7s 9h 5s Js] [3d]
Johnyboy756: checks
TargaMini: bets $1.30
Nashy1996: calls $1.30
Johnyboy756: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TargaMini: shows [Ad Qd] (high card Ace)
Nashy1996: shows [Qs Qh] (a pair of Queens)
Nashy1996 collected $5.97 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $6.27 | Rake $0.30
Board [7s 9h 5s Js 3d]
Seat 1: v0ero0v (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Johnyboy756 folded on the River
Seat 3: Foxtel21 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: TargaMini showed [Ad Qd] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 5: Nashy1996 (button) showed [Qs Qh] and won ($5.97) with a pair of Queens
Seat 6: Mojo8 (small blind) folded before Flop

I'm holding the queens and i just wonder if i missed some value on the turn here,i decided to check because of board texture and because i was playing against 2 opponents.But after thinking about it more i think maybe i missed some value.
i felt like they were both pretty weak with their checks to me on the turn,i still had alot going for me on the turn given my position and my hand but also my opponents were ralitively loose from what i'd seen.
i just wanted to get peoples thoughts feel free to comment
 
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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 08:29 AM
(#2)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,020
(Community Coordinator)
Hi There Nashy,

Welcome to PSO!

Preflop I thought you played your Premium holding perfectly. The fact that we went to the flop 3-handed indicates that your opponents believe they have strong starting hands too.

Regarding your question about the Turn, I would have liked to see you bet out on the Turn. Your in the best position here and when your opponents check to you like that it usually means that they are worried about the Flush. Of course it can also mean that they have just hit a monster and are waiting for you to bet so that they can raise you.

The best way to find this out is to make a bet. If they re-raise you it usually means that they have hit strong. if they fold all the better and you take the pot.

If your opponent is going to suck out on you here make him pay to do so, don't give him the chance to catch a free card here.

That's just my opinion but I'm sure somebody with more experience will come along shortly and give you some solid advice.

Great first hand for review by the way! Why not drop a few lines into the New Member section and introduce yourself!

Regards,

Raiser

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner


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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 09:47 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello Nashy1996!

Actually, in my opinion when Targi led the flop for 65c, you can make a solid case for jamming over him immediately. This was a flop that was un-likely to hit a ton of ranges that would call a 3bet pre, and by making that 3bet you set up a low SPR going to the flop (vs Johnyboy756's stack) of about 2.7. This means you should not fold an over pair often at all.

Since Targi did not 4bet pre, it is less likely he holds a pp bigger than your QQ, and while he may have 99/77 in his range (seeing as you state he is somewhat loose), if he has anything it is likely a lesser over pair (that he'd stack off on because of pot size), or a draw (that he also might stack off on behind). He may well have air here and not pay anything, but no sense in letting draws get there for free in a pot this large already.

An alternate to an immediate 2 times pot shove (roughly), which you may feel value owns you a bit if Targi and Johny756 CAN fold, would be to bet at least a full pot bet, with the intent of jamming the turn...I still think this spot might be a bit better for just an open shove though, that might look bluffier.

With this said, it is quite possible that this line would actually win you LESS than you won as played. We know by looking at the results that Targi may well have snap folded to a jam by you seeing as he had no pair and no real draw aside from 1 over. So it could be said that your more "careful" line on a coordinated board in a multi-way pot netted you more money BECAUSE you checked the turn after flatting the flop bet. But judging our decisions based on the results can lead us to faulty adjustments in our play.

I will say it just feels to me like a "mistake" to play your hand slowly here when there may have been hands that paid you off MAX value on the flop, and by not seeking that max value immediately in a beneficial SPR situation, you DID increase your chance of a suck out without getting paid for it..

If you ARE worried these opponents are so loose that they may call 3bets with hands that would flop 2 pr./straights, your careful line takes on a lot more benefit. But to me, the point to get max value was on the flop, when Targi had shown interest enough to possibly stay for max price in an already fat pot.

A question for you Nashy1996: What would you have done if Targi JAMMED the river, instead of betting an amount that was quite easy to call?

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 15, 2012 at 10:01 AM..
 
Old
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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 12:26 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

I agree with JDean on the flop, with a stack to pot ratio of 3 I think we can come over the top of his donk bet profitably in this spot and get worse hands to stack off, as well as perhaps fold out hands that have reasonable equity in what's already a large pot.

As played, I'm not betting the turn. Ask yourself is a turn bet for value, or as a bluff? Clearly not a bluff in this case as no better hands will fold. But what are we getting value from? We were already losing to AA/KK and sets on the flop. Now we're losing to JJ and spades, TT and A9 (and worse 1 pair hands) are going to have a hard time finding a call unless it's A9 with the As... I think it's too thin personally. Add to that the presence of the 3rd party, who's calling shows lots of strength... if he's been fishing along with something not that good he'll fold to our bet, but if he's snowing a set or was on the flush draw and got there, we don't want to be betting for him now... if we bet the turn and get raised all in we'll likely have to call with our overpair+flush draw because the pot will be so large, but personally I won't like it. So I will begrudgingly check back the turn as played, and plan to call any safe river card + reasonable river bet.

It's just such a horrible turn card for us... the hands we could get value from shoving on the flop over the donk bet... worse 1 pair hands and flush draws, it's the worst turn card in the world for us because it either gets all those hands there, or is scary to them when we're still ahead.


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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 11:47 PM
(#5)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Hi JDean!
thanks for the analysis! it really does help alot,you really got me to think about the hand differently i have to admit i didnt even really concider the SPR and value on the flop there.
i may have won more money playing it the way i played it but i really put myself in some potentially tough spots later in the hand by playing it in a more cautious fashion.

And to answer your question, if he shoved on the river there, if i'm honest with myself i probably would have folded on the end due to the spot i really got myself into but i was lucky he just made a bet that was comfortable to call.

thanks again for your analysis i cant believe i havent posted before now i'm sure i'll have plenty in the future

thanks!
 
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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 11:59 PM
(#6)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
Hi The langolier,
thanks for your analysis also,
your spot on,what do i get value from on the turn alot of better hands thats for sure, once i played the pot like i did on the flop and that awful J comes on the turn it gets so many of those hands there as you said.
thanks again i really appreciate it alot!
 
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Mon Jan 16, 2012, 12:26 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi,

As played, I'm not betting the turn. Ask yourself is a turn bet for value, or as a bluff? Clearly not a bluff in this case as no better hands will fold. But what are we getting value from? We were already losing to AA/KK and sets on the flop. Now we're losing to JJ and spades, TT and A9 (and worse 1 pair hands) are going to have a hard time finding a call unless it's A9 with the As... I think it's too thin personally. Add to that the presence of the 3rd party, who's calling shows lots of strength... if he's been fishing along with something not that good he'll fold to our bet, but if he's snowing a set or was on the flush draw and got there, we don't want to be betting for him now... if we bet the turn and get raised all in we'll likely have to call with our overpair+flush draw because the pot will be so large, but personally I won't like it. So I will begrudgingly check back the turn as played, and plan to call any safe river card + reasonable river bet.
Dave,

I was actually torn about this myself when I wrote this middle paragraph, and was looking for someone to discuss this aspect.

An alternate to an immediate 2 times pot shove (roughly), which you may feel value owns you a bit if Targi and Johny756 CAN fold, would be to bet at least a full pot bet, with the intent of jamming the turn...I still think this spot might be a bit better for just an open shove though, that might look bluffier.

I flip/flopped on that paragraph because I agree it REALLY is the only real card that makes Nashy's flop flat reasonable as a "safety precaution". I'd far prefer to end ANY decision I have pre flop with a jam, than possibly see a completely horrible card like that and maybe make mistake fold if I happen to get too scared.

I finally settled on presenting it as an option to the immediate shove only because it sticks us SO DEEP in such a large pot we cannot really continence a fold at all. That meant to me, no matter what we are going for it if even we are doing so only on the strength of the fact we picked up a flush draw to the Q.

I totally agree that Js completes just about ANYTHING that we might have gotten to call of a full pot bet on the flop, and if we are not all in when it comes we probably do not benefit a ton from getting all in now. I looked at it as an option ONLY because the 3rd board spade presented us with a draw to the Q hi flush, and if the J beat us, we at least picked up a decent number of possible outs.

So my question is: do you, or anyone, think that a full pot flop bet, followed by a turn shove when we pick up the draw to the Q hi flush, is valid in this spot?

I mean given we are really deep, the pot is really big, and we did not shove the flop in part because we thought we might NOT get called?

Is it at least a possible option rather than flatting or check/calling, any turn bet?

(Please note, we are in the middle of 2 players, so even by checking we cannot know if we are getting a free card, or will have to pay a bet anyway.)


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Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 16, 2012 at 12:41 AM..
 

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