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Difficult call

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Difficult call - Sun Jan 15, 2012, 06:42 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Last 7b in a $1.50 27man SnG.

Villain shows a 17% VPIP/8% PFR over 64 hands I've seen him dealt. This was the 33rd hand at this final table he was dealt, he played 6 of them, and every one of those 6 was an open-shove or a 3-bet shove for well over 20 BBs



Would you have called him?

edit: he didn't get called once, he pulled the same move over and over. If he played the hand, he shoved. Until we burst the bubble, after that he started seeing flops...

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keeping track of my poker semi-career

Last edited by Ov3rsight; Sun Jan 15, 2012 at 07:37 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 08:47 AM
(#2)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,022
(Community Coordinator)
Hi there Ov3rsight,

I think a fold is fine here.

Your position at the table cost you 500 chips but with 30 bigs left there is no need to risk a chance of making the money.

Sit back and wait to see what kind of hands he has at showdown if you get to see one from him.

Calling in this spot just has too much uncertainty to it for my liking.

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Call or Fold - Tourney life at stake - Sun Jan 15, 2012, 02:30 PM
(#3)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by royalraise85 View Post
Hi there Ov3rsight,

I think a fold is fine here.

Your position at the table cost you 500 chips but with 30 bigs left there is no need to risk a chance of making the money.

Sit back and wait to see what kind of hands he has at showdown if you get to see one from him.

Calling in this spot just has too much uncertainty to it for my liking.

Raiser
There are often many lines to take, when playing some hands. But, when it's a close 'call' or 'fold', with your tourney at stake, it's more black and white. Here we have a gray area. I respect Royals choice, to fold. By his posts, I know he out-classes the players at this buy-in level, and can outplay the field to place ITM.

I'd like to give you some food for thought, when facing a situation like this:

What we know/don’t know:
The chips are distributed pretty close to even among the players. We started this hand on a 33BB stack (just a bit over average), before our PFR. It's seems like the table is playing cautious, and the villain is taken advantage of this dynamic. We don’t have enough hand data, and haven’t seen a SD when he shoves, to range him properly. At this buy-in level, I feel this definitely shows us a pattern. It’s important to know what our image is, and if the villains shoves and 3bets came from a positional advantage. The blinds are 2 off at 5th place, which gets 8% of the pool. Winning this pot would make us chip leader, on a table that seems to be tight (maybe not), and our chances for at least 3rd place (18%), will greatly improve.

When there is a ‘shove monkey’ at the table, I will tighten my opening range. If our plan is to fold when this villain shoves, then I like reducing my PFR a bit, so I can get away from the hand. Considering the rate the villain’s shoving at this final table (6 of 33; 18%), his range would be any broadway, half the Aces, middling pairs and up. Of course this range may vary greatly, due to rushes, position, table dynamics, and lack of hand data.

There’s still a lot of tourney to play. The levels are 10 minutes long, with the next level, only adding a small ante to the same blinds (100/200 25 ante). I hate coin flips in this situation, but the following stats may change my mind; my hand equity (* 57%); pot odds (1.28:1; needing at least 44% equity for 0EV); tournament payout % potential (if I win the hand), will more than double the bottom payout %; and the villain’s SHOVING 18% of his hands! I’m rarely dominated, and will dominate my opponent a fair amount of the time. I expect going into the flop, I’m a coin flip at worse.
* We have 57% equity against his 18% shoving rate. Plus, I feel the villain’s shoving rate for this hand, is higher, due to his position, and past shoving success.

Taking all things into consideration, I’m going to take a stand against this ‘shove monkey’, and hopefully get in a much better position to take this tourney down.

I’m calling!
.

Last edited by king_spadez1; Sun Jan 15, 2012 at 02:37 PM.. Reason: clarified starting stack (33BB), prior to PFR.
 
Old
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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 02:43 PM
(#4)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Given our situation at the table, AQ does not look great, even if he has been shoving a bit light. We need concede that his range is going to be a little better if some one has raised before him even though he has position. Of course with the all in the position is bye the bye.

so it boils down to what range do you put him on and how does your unsuited Ace look to fair against that range.

I'd rather be first to get all my chips in rather than call, so all things considered, I'd fold.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 05:50 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,812
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Ov3rsight!

I like the standard opening raise in this situation, as it helps to conceal the hand. When the button shoves here, I'm going to fold. This would be an easier decsion knowing the opp's numbers.

Since 5 here cash, I would want to preserve my chip position and be sure to get ITM first, instead of calling a shove when I did not know that I had the best hand. I can't win a tourney if I don't first get ITM.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jan 15, 2012, 08:28 PM
(#6)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
no need to rush

it's a good fold

it's not a difficult call - It's an easy fold

even if your ahead it's still your tournament life right here, so risking here personally is not good

JWK is right you can't win big if your already out, agree with JWK it's a good raise

just keep raising with your premium hands like that and just keep folding to your opp's shove until you get AK AA KK QQ or even JJ then when he shoves that's the time you call.

it's good to have a shoving opp, i will keep raising and folding till i got the right card to call. 2.5BB is your investment. just keep giving your opp 2.5BB think of it like your just saving in a bank then when it's time to withdraw you get your investment back plus big interest.
 

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