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Tricky one...

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Tricky one... - Mon Jan 16, 2012, 05:38 PM
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etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116


I had to raise with 66 from late position but against tricky and v aggressive players I like to get a good read on them first..

On the flop I did not believe him and need more info
On the turn I think he had a Q but the board might help me with a shove on the river if he doesn't start betting big...
On the river he is v short less than 1/2 the pot and checks so he might be afraid of the board plus now I have a set and he is committed.

Would you have folded on the turn?

Etienne
 
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Mon Jan 16, 2012, 05:51 PM
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joker41673's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,850
I would have folded the flop with an underpair to the board but that's just me.

 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 02:33 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post


I had to raise with 66 from late position but against tricky and v aggressive players I like to get a good read on them first..

On the flop I did not believe him and need more info
On the turn I think he had a Q but the board might help me with a shove on the river if he doesn't start betting big...
On the river he is v short less than 1/2 the pot and checks so he might be afraid of the board plus now I have a set and he is committed.

Would you have folded on the turn?

Etienne
Hi Etipac;

Yes, you picked up outs on the turn versus some of the villain's range, but the improvement you saw was really mostly "phantom" improvement.

- You have a draw to a 6 hi flush, which may well be no good at all.
- You have a gut shot draw to 3 non-diamond 9's to make the bottom end of a straight, again which may be no good.
- You have 2 6's to draw at a set, again which may be no good.
- Even your "cleanest out", the 9d to make a straight flush, may be no good (if villain had Jd).

In short, you have ZERO clean outs...

If your opponent has any possible semi bluffs in his bet range on the flop, most of those got there on the turn; at least enough to beat 66. It was fine too peel to see the turn if you believed the villain was loose enough to fire on a complete miss, but when he barrels a 2nd time, that was the point to give up in my opinion.

If he credits you with calling 2 barrels from him with ANY draws in your range, he cannot really call any river bet by you because YOU got there most the time on the turn. So you cannot, in effect, make any more money by staying in the hand to see the river (unless the villain is really BAD), and calling his 2nd barrel may have led you to lose far more money.

The turn is a clear fold in my opinion, unless you still dis-believed him, and then you really cannot bet anything on your set on the river at all unless you are positive he checks a 1 pair hand all the time, and pays off a bet on 1 pair (or 2 pair) with this very coordinated board.

That is a lott-a "if's" to be working on...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 02:46 AM..
 

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