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Catching the 3outer after calling 2all ins with a flush draw...

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Catching the 3outer after calling 2all ins with a flush draw... - Mon Jan 16, 2012, 08:10 PM
(#1)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116


I believe I did the right thing shoving over here right guys? The guy who won the hand was very loose so was v v v unlucky to lose this one... to a str flush...

Etienne
 
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Mon Jan 16, 2012, 09:45 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
he had to call 3.70 to win a pot of 10.40 or 2.8/1 pot odds
he has 11 outs here (he would assume 12) any 6 (4outs), any spade minus the 6 (for 8 more)
using a very simple in game rule of thumb (the 2,4 rule) he can (and so can you) roughly calculate his % chance of hitting by the river.
just multiply your outs times 4 with two cards to come and by 2 with 1 card to come. so he had a roughly 48% chance to catch a winner getting 2.8/1 on his call.
 
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Mon Jan 16, 2012, 09:47 PM
(#3)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
just one of those ..........
you know you're going broke and can do nothing about it, imo

next hand
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 02:55 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post


I believe I did the right thing shoving over here right guys? The guy who won the hand was very loose so was v v v unlucky to lose this one... to a str flush...

Etienne
Hi again Etipac!

Yes, I believe your shove when you flopped the set was the right move if there were at least a couple of hands that are worse within the call range of the opponent's here, and there certainly are most of the time.

Worst case for you is a higher set, but the time to sweat those 2 hands was before you decided to set mine. You only have 1 out versus those hands, and if you live in fear of those "monsters under the bed" you should never set mine.

With the possibility of a possible 17.5 to 1+ pay off in implied odds versus just the effective stack, and having about an 1 in 9 chance to spike a set, I don't mind set mining for 15c more with a flat of this raise on this depth of money at all.

Next worst are the 2 specific straight hands; 69/64.
Neither of these are highly likely given the pre flop action, and you have at least 30.1% equity versus those 2 hands if there are still here after the pre flop raise.

Next worse for you would be 76s spades, and vs. that you have about 53.5% equity.

Every thing else is worse...

this board is coordinated enough that a lot of draws may find reason to stack off, and SPR going into the flop is low enough to have plenty of over pair hands are ready to do so too. Only 4 of all those hands are ahead of you, and 2 shouldn't really be there to see the flop after the raise(s)...

Seems like a good spot to jam right away to me!

Bad luck happens though...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 10:43 AM..
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 02:27 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi Etienne,

I like getting it in on the flop just fine here. Your equity vs. their ranges should be plenty good on such a wet board.

The only guy that misplayed his hand imo is the AA. You and the 97s were fine.

Dave


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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 03:21 PM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi Etienne,

I like getting it in on the flop just fine here. Your equity vs. their ranges should be plenty good on such a wet board.

The only guy that misplayed his hand imo is the AA. You and the 97s were fine.

Dave
 
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Reraise - Wed Jan 18, 2012, 01:12 AM
(#7)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
I think the guy with the AA had to reraise in order not to let others enter the pot right? and value his hand..

Etienne
 
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Wed Jan 18, 2012, 03:52 AM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
I think the guy with the AA had to reraise in order not to let others enter the pot right? and value his hand..

Etienne
Yes Etipac,

He should have raised to prevent exactly hands like yours, set mining hands, from staying around cheaply enough to get there on him. The problem is his raise was too low to do that.

You had limped your 55 to set mine. 2 people called behind you.

The AA raiser should not have raised making it 20c to go, he should have raised more on the order of AT LEAST 36c, and given the effective stack size between the AA and all the limpers, I'd favor making it at least 40c to 50c in order to allow easy commitment on any flop by my AA.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 18, 2012 at 09:37 AM..
 
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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 09:38 AM
(#9)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
You have done nothing wrong, you could fold or limp the 55.
You made a correct decision going allin on the flop, your other decision would be to fold, here is why:
You bet and get raised and then got flat called. It would really depend on my read because the guy who won the hand eventually could easily have trips also. you merely have bottom set. Think of that next time.

The mistakes have been made by the guy with the AA.
Furthermore I wish you best luck
 

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