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Folded my set

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Folded my set - Tue Jan 17, 2012, 05:56 AM
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*********** # 1 **************PokerStars Hand #73978489789: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2012/01/17 0:27:48 UTC [2012/01/16 19:27:48 ET]Table 'Centaurus V' 6-max Seat #6 is the buttonSeat 1: Lucas.G0 ($2 in chips) Seat 2: dbolRAGZ ($2.53 in chips) Seat 3: rTOSGA ($2.18 in chips) Seat 4: davidgp_16 ($6.57 in chips) Seat 5: namdo26 ($2.21 in chips) Seat 6: holdemace486 ($2.86 in chips) Lucas.G0: posts small blind $0.01dbolRAGZ: posts big blind $0.02*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to holdemace486 [5c 5h]rTOSGA: folds davidgp_16: calls $0.02namdo26: calls $0.02holdemace486: calls $0.02Lucas.G0: calls $0.01dbolRAGZ: checks *** FLOP *** [5d 9d Qd]Lucas.G0: checks dbolRAGZ: checks davidgp_16: checks namdo26: bets $0.02holdemace486: calls $0.02Lucas.G0: folds dbolRAGZ: folds davidgp_16: calls $0.02*** TURN *** [5d 9d Qd] [8s]davidgp_16: bets $0.12namdo26: calls $0.12holdemace486: calls $0.12*** RIVER *** [5d 9d Qd 8s] [6s]davidgp_16: bets $0.10namdo26: folds holdemace486: folds [5c 5h]Uncalled bet ($0.10) returned to davidgp_16davidgp_16 collected $0.50 from pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $0.52 | Rake $0.02 Board [5d 9d Qd 8s 6s]Seat 1: Lucas.G0 (small blind) folded on the FlopSeat 2: dbolRAGZ (big blind) folded on the FlopSeat 3: rTOSGA folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 4: davidgp_16 collected ($0.50)Seat 5: namdo26 folded on the RiverSeat 6: holdemace486 (button) folded on the River

sorry about the format this is how its coming to me and my hand generator tool still does not work,
was i right to fold this thought it was a easy fold but maybe should of folded on the flop?davidgp had sat tight playing tag the other op well he was the cashier giving away his chips
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 08:21 AM
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JDean's Avatar
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Howdy HoldemAce486:

PokerStars Hand #73978489789: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2012/01/17 0:27:48 UTC [2012/01/16 19:27:48 ET]
Table 'Centaurus V' 6-max
Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Lucas.G0 ($2 in chips)
Seat 2: dbolRAGZ ($2.53 in chips)
Seat 3: rTOSGA ($2.18 in chips)
Seat 4: davidgp_16 ($6.57 in chips)
Seat 5: namdo26 ($2.21 in chips)
Seat 6: holdemace486 ($2.86 in chips)
Lucas.G0: posts small blind $0.01
dbolRAGZ: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to holdemace486 [5c 5h]
rTOSGA: folds
davidgp_16: calls $0.02
namdo26: calls $0.02
holdemace486: calls $0.02
Lucas.G0: calls $0.01
dbolRAGZ: checks
*** FLOP *** [5d 9d Qd]
Lucas.G0: checks dbol
RAGZ: checks
davidgp_16: checks
namdo26: bets $0.02
holdemace486: calls $0.02
Lucas.G0: folds
dbolRAGZ: folds
davidgp_16: calls $0.02
*** TURN *** [5d 9d Qd] [8s]
davidgp_16: bets $0.12
namdo26: calls $0.12
holdemace486: calls $0.12
*** RIVER *** [5d 9d Qd 8s] [6s]
davidgp_16: bets $0.10
namdo26: folds
holdemace486: folds [5c 5h]
Uncalled bet ($0.10) returned to davidgp_16
davidgp_16 collected $0.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $0.52 | Rake $0.02
Board [5d 9d Qd 8s 6s]
Seat 1: Lucas.G0 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: dbolRAGZ (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: rTOSGA folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: davidgp_16 collected ($0.50)
Seat 5: namdo26 folded on the River
Seat 6: holdemace486 (button) folded on the River

There is a re-format (for some reason I could not get this one to load into the re-player either).

Hmmmm...interesting fold. Not sure I like it, nor your overall line.

My opinions on the play:

While the texture is pretty scary on the flop, I really do not think on this depth of money you must immediately go into pot control mode when you flop bottom set on this suited board. If you've VERY specific opponent info, this may become more viable an option.

BUT...

You post no reads on the villains who limped along in the hand regarding specific bluff tendencies though, so it is hard to tell for sure. When the effective stack is $1.98 after the limp, and the SPR going to the flop is in the high range (19.8), you do have a little bit of room to raise the min bet lead by nambo without building such a large pot you cannot maintain some control.

I think I'd favor making it around 16c to go (a full pot bet) here, and re-assess after that.

A bet this size does these things for you:

- It increases the value you get from any worse hands which will likely call (like Ad hands, or JT hands. 2 pairs)

- It serves to thin the field, and minimizes your risk of "cascading calls" pitting you against multiple draws, any of which might get there on you.

- It more clearly defines your hand for you in terms of a bad board texture, where a limp-along leaves you guessing.

- It begins builds the pot a bit to where if you ARE behind, but your boat draw gets there, you can see a healthy implied odds return (in all likelihood).

Over-calling the min bet does none of that for you...

On the turn, davidgp, who you say is a TAG player, suddenly bets 3/4ths pot. When you range a TAG, does he open limp 67 UTG +1 really?

I mean I can see TAGs seeking to balance their ranges playing 67/JT oop on occasion, especially depending on how passively/aggressively the table has been playing, but is it REALLY all that scary? or are you sure davidgp is a TAG?

I mean wouldn't a turned straight have to worry at least a bit about controlling the pot in case a flush is already there (for the same reasons, does he suddenly strong lead a better set oop?).

Does a TAG who is slow playing a flopped flush trigger his flop slow play by leading for a 3/4ths pot bet, or is he more likely to C/R another donkey min bet by nambo?

Isn't it possible that davidgp may limp to fit or fold a hand like AQ/KQ in EP if he is a TAG, as well as have JT/67? Especially if his A or K is a diamond, wouldn't a hand like AdQx be looking like a hand with good value, value enough to take the betting lead, when the only person to bet a suited flop was the player you have marked as "spew-y"?

It strikes me that when no one else has shown an aggressive interest in this pot, a TAG is exactly the player type who may bring pressure on more passive opponents in a hand if he believes they may be still drawing. 1 or 2 pair hands would be sufficient for that purpose, especially if they contained a strong diamond.

As played, I think the sudden appearance of a new lead bettor who is now putting chips into the pot in more standard bet size amounts is reason enough to seek pot control with a flat call by you (afterall, the pot is small enough that if you tried a turn raise, davidgp has decent fold equity to bluff or semi bluff), so I do like your turn call; there ARE hands that beat you here afterall. I just do not think think I am ready to give up on my set as the best hand quite yet. So I like your flat of the 12c turn bet...

Now with davidgp firmly in the betting lead going to the river, but with his bet failing to thin the herd, if he is on a straight that he backed into on the river, is he REALLY not extracting more value that 10c in this 50c pot after drawing at thta straight?

Again, the pot is small enough, and the board is coordinated enough, that you really cannot profitably raise your set for value on the river in my opinion HEA486 (at least not without more specific info than TAG or spew-y), but with you only needing to be right a bit under 17% of the time to make a call at least break even, AND with the amount being such a small portion of your stack, I really think you have to make it here.

Were I caught between namdo and davidgp, with a chance that namdo may well shove the river over a call by me for the ~$2.00 left in his stack, I think a fold would be more reasonable on this board. But not when you are last to act...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 09:20 AM..
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 09:32 AM
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great analysis again dean most impressive,i did have a good read on the opp i earlier called a hand and said in the chat box you have quad kings 3 kings on the board and ace i had ace queen,and he checked crafty the turn then shoved i knew he had this but still called like a donk to see i was right,on the hand in question i put the guy craftily playing qq and had a higher set,maybe wrong but thats how i saw it at the time,thx again for evo,
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 09:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
great analysis again dean most impressive,i did have a good read on the opp i earlier called a hand and said in the chat box you have quad kings 3 kings on the board and ace i had ace queen,and he checked crafty the turn then shoved i knew he had this but still called like a donk to see i was right,on the hand in question i put the guy craftily playing qq and had a higher set,maybe wrong but thats how i saw it at the time,thx again for evo,
Good reply HEA486...

More specific info can certainly change things, but if you had him on a better set, I'd have to ask:

Why do you draw at 1 live out?

Did it feel like he woke up to the value of top set only after no one aggressively contested the pot on the flop?

I can see a better set as a real possibility (especially 88), but if you range opponents only on very specific hands, and dis-count completely the chance they may have other hands, you could lead yourself into folds that are too tight.

Now do not get me wrong, I can easily see a full pot river bet by davidgp being too rich to call: the pot has been kept relatively small afterall. I simply think you might be giving too much credit to a tiny bet which could be tiny because he is un-sure of his hand, as well as because he is SO sure of it he is making certain he gets paid.

Did you perhaps pick up any bet patterns that says he only value bets monsters small on the river?

Inquiring minds want to know...

(nice hand to post btw...ty.)


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Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 09:45 AM..
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 09:53 AM
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holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Good reply HEA486...

More specific info can certainly change things, but if you had him on a better set, I'd have to ask:

Why do you draw at 1 live out?

Did it feel like he woke up to the value of top set only after no one aggressively contested the pot on the flop?

I can see a better set as a real possibility (especially 88), but if you range opponents only on very specific hands, and dis-count completely the chance they may have other hands, you could lead yourself into folds that are too tight.

Now do not get me wrong, I can easily see a full pot river bet by davidgp being too rich to call: the pot has been kept relatively small afterall. I simply think you might be giving too much credit to a tiny bet which could be tiny because he is un-sure of his hand, as well as because he is SO sure of it he is making certain he gets paid.

Did you perhaps pick up any bet patterns that says he only value bets monsters small on the river?

Inquiring minds want to know...

(nice hand to post btw...ty.)
the opp was playing tag but when he did have a hand really tried to play it smart to get max value,e.g

*********** # 1 **************PokerStars Hand #73996100800: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2012/01/17 12:30:02 UTC [2012/01/17 7:30:02 ET]Table 'Chromios' 6-max Seat #5 is the buttonSeat 1: IIras ($0.97 in chips) Seat 2: dropucoffee ($1.68 in chips) Seat 3: ilnorth ($0.44 in chips) Seat 4: DraaiBoek ($3.11 in chips) Seat 5: holdemace486 ($1.59 in chips) Seat 6: Mr.Konri ($2.13 in chips) Mr.Konri: posts small blind $0.01IIras: posts big blind $0.02*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to holdemace486 [Ah Qd]dropucoffee: raises $0.06 to $0.08ilnorth: folds DraaiBoek: folds holdemace486: calls $0.08Mr.Konri: folds IIras: folds *** FLOP *** [Ts Kd Ac]dropucoffee: bets $0.10holdemace486: calls $0.10*** TURN *** [Ts Kd Ac] [Kh]dropucoffee: checks holdemace486: bets $0.15dropucoffee: calls $0.15*** RIVER *** [Ts Kd Ac Kh] [Kc]dropucoffee: bets $1.35 and is all-inholdemace486 said, "fook u got quads"holdemace486: calls $1.26 and is all-inUncalled bet ($0.09) returned to dropucoffee*** SHOW DOWN ***dropucoffee: shows [As Ks] (four of a kind, Kings)holdemace486: shows [Ah Qd] (a full house, Kings full of Aces)dropucoffee collected $3.06 from pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $3.21 | Rake $0.15 Board [Ts Kd Ac Kh Kc]Seat 1: IIras (big blind) folded before FlopSeat 2: dropucoffee showed [As Ks] and won ($3.06) with four of a kind, KingsSeat 3: ilnorth folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 4: DraaiBoek folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 5: holdemace486 (button) showed [Ah Qd] and lost with a full house, Kings full of AcesSeat 6: Mr.Konri (small blind) folded before Flop
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 09:57 AM
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to me it was worth calling this to know i was right about this opp,and with another 80c buyin in fact came off 2,50 or so.Because i had this read on the opp so took them back and obvious folded my set.
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 09:59 AM
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HEA486...

Just curious, were you mutli-tabling here?

The hand you posted originally has davidgp the winner when you fold your set.

the 2nd HH you put up had "dropucoffee" who played the quad Ks for value pretty well.

I can see a mix up in names that similar in a multi-table situation, that is why I ask...

OR...

Are you merely pointing out this hand won by dropucoffee as an example of a hand by someone else wher you got caught out by a call you see as too loose in retrospect?

I am asking just to be sure...


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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 10:00 AM
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holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
to me it was worth calling this to know i was right about this opp,and with another 80c buyin in fact came off 2,50 or so.Because i had this read on the opp so took them back and obvious folded my set.
sorry think i mixed my opps up lol sorry jd but yet another interesting hand for you
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 10:10 AM
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holdemace486's Avatar
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Posts: 1,760
oh no a silly mistake on my part was thinking about the quads and why i called when i said in the chat i know he had them,omg then in turn folding my set to well not that much info on him just seemed an odd bet,but was still thinking about the quads grrrr i did it to myself jd thx m8t but in effect did take my chips back off the quad guy and the other guy lol!
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 10:29 AM
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LOL! No problem at all mate! It happens, and the more HH to review, the btter, right?

2nd hand = sick spot for you in my opinion HEA486...

You have a huge bet in a pot you are chopping way more often than not. I often make huge over bets myself in spots like this where a chop looks a near certainty.

You can tie yourself up in all kinds of "leveling wars", especially if you have history with a villain in situations like this for sure, and wind up making a "mistake" quite easily...

...but how big a mistake is it really?

You are essentially losing your 33c invested, plus your share of the 3c in blinds, if you fold.

If you call and you are RIGHT, you win back 33c (that is in the pot, and thus not yours any longer), plus 1c (usually the extra penny goes to the player oop if it didn't get eaten by rake).

If you are wrong, you lose an additional $1.26.

Some tiny % of the time the villain is running a very sophisticated bluff, and you win about $1.92...

Seems to me that you have to be right and at least chop on the order of about 75% the time that this is at least a chop to break even 9assuming you call always)?

I have never thought about a situation like this before, so I must be honest I have no clue if that is right or not. Let me check my work here if I may...

100 times we find this spot...

75 times we call and win 34c.
75 x .34 = 25.50

24 times we call and lose $1.26.

24 x 1.26 = -30.24

1 time we call and win 1.92.
1 x 1.92 = 1.92

25.50 + 1.92 = 27.42

27.42 - 30.24 = -2.82 / 100 = -2.82c -eV per call at 75% correct....

uh uh...

80%?
27.24 + 1.92 when we are right
-23.94 when we are wrong.
total...+5.22 / 100 = +5.22c +eV.

Looks like we need to be right about 76/77% to break even on a call.

The REAL question is...can we be right that often if shoved into?


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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 10:50 AM
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holdemace486's Avatar
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Originally Posted by JDean View Post
LOL! No problem at all mate! It happens, and the more HH to review, the btter, right?

2nd hand = sick spot for you in my opinion HEA486...

You have a huge bet in a pot you are chopping way more often than not. I often make huge over bets myself in spots like this where a chop looks a near certainty.

You can tie yourself up in all kinds of "leveling wars", especially if you have history with a villain in situations like this for sure, and wind up making a "mistake" quite easily...

...but how big a mistake is it really?

You are essentially losing your 33c invested, plus your share of the 3c in blinds, if you fold.

If you call and you are RIGHT, you win back 33c (that is in the pot, and thus not yours any longer), plus 1c (usually the extra penny goes to the player oop if it didn't get eaten by rake).

If you are wrong, you lose an additional $1.26.

Some tiny % of the time the villain is running a very sophisticated bluff, and you win about $1.92...

Seems to me that you have to be right and at least chop on the order of about 75% the time that this is at least a chop to break even 9assuming you call always)?

I have never thought about a situation like this before, so I must be honest I have no clue if that is right or not. Let me check my work here if I may...

100 times we find this spot...

75 times we call and win 34c.
75 x .34 = 25.50

24 times we call and lose $1.26.

24 x 1.26 = -30.24

1 time we call and win 1.92.
1 x 1.92 = 1.92

25.50 + 1.92 = 27.42

27.42 - 30.24 = -2.82 / 100 = -2.82c -eV per call at 75% correct....

uh uh...

80%?
27.24 + 1.92 when we are right
-23.94 when we are wrong.
total...+5.22 / 100 = +5.22c +eV.

Looks like we need to be right about 76/77% to break even on a call.

The REAL question is...can we be right that often if shoved into?
thats some good poker maths,so in generall its a good idea to call even on thiis occassion when i knew he had it?or is that the time to fold when i was 99.99 percent sure he had the quads?
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 11:02 AM
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HEA486,

It seems to me, we are rarely 99.99% sure of anything...

If I were the one jamming into you on the 3rd K, after i tell you i do it often in this forum, do you think I might jam it more often than 23% of the time with just Ks full of A, same as you have?

What might there be in THAT player, in THAT situation, that makes you 99.99% sure...see? If thee is some tangible reason you can point to that makes you that certain, then folding is better for you.

We would need pretty strong info to say that though....

Math seems to say if you call 100% of the time, somewhere around 23% to 24% of the time, if you are wrong, it is ok.


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Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 11:06 AM..
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 11:23 AM
(#13)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
HEA486,

It seems to me, we are rarely 99.99% sure of anything...

If I were the one jamming into you on the 3rd K, after i tell you i do it often in this forum, do you think I might jam it more often than 23% of the time with just Ks full of A, same as you have?

What might there be in THAT player, in THAT situation, that makes you 99.99% sure...see? If thee is some tangible reason you can point to that makes you that certain, then folding is better for you.

We would need pretty strong info to say that though....

Math seems to say if you call 100% of the time, somewhere around 23% to 24% of the time, if you are wrong, it is ok.
i do not want to sound daft in this conversation lol,but i always know for some reason,i have played that much online holdem i just see it all the time,i also can do this in live play i should never lose in theory lol,but back to the point 99percent,its just the way he played the hand from the instance he first bet and i had aq i had a gut feeling thinking he had ak! this is why i use to think the game was rigged lol but in fact my brain just poker computes fast if i can put it that way,instant maths i think or something like that,
If you noticed from my bad beats rampage i went on on ere one thing you may off noticed i always knew were i was at in the hand and was indeed big favourite to win it. Like i said before on hear and all came out the wrong way i have practiced for ages calling all the time to see i was right no one beleived me but it was the truth and the reason i can read the game so well.And thx to yours and every1s support i am starting to beleive in myself which as always been a problem in my life,the percentages you use etc i do not know to be honest,never considered needing to know the maths side of it,always gone with the way they play their hands and so on,percieved image.
But after seeing a lot of maths in poker might be my next learning curve i think just hope i dont mess up my game again as learning small ball did lol.
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 12:14 PM
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 01:17 PM
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Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner


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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 01:25 PM
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I haven't read through this lengthy thread, but my take on the hand in general is pretty simple. Personally I would have been raising right on the flop, I would have raised the turn, and as played, I would never fold for .10c into a pot of .62c on this board. We only need to win 14% of the time to break even on a call, and our hand strength is totally under repped. The villain can have a flush of course, or a straight (less likely) or even a bigger set, but he will also show up with 2 pair, top pair, and busted flush draws here too considering everyone just called both the flop and turn. I expect our hand is good well over 50% of the time even, which if accurate would warrant a raise on the river, but beyond that there is no way we aren't good at least 14% of the time in this spot so at least a call is in order.

Dave


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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 01:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
i do not want to sound daft in this conversation lol,but i always know for some reason,i have played that much online holdem i just see it all the time,i also can do this in live play i should never lose in theory lol,but back to the point 99percent,its just the way he played the hand from the instance he first bet and i had aq i had a gut feeling thinking he had ak! this is why i use to think the game was rigged lol but in fact my brain just poker computes fast if i can put it that way,instant maths i think or something like that,
If you noticed from my bad beats rampage i went on on ere one thing you may off noticed i always knew were i was at in the hand and was indeed big favourite to win it. Like i said before on hear and all came out the wrong way i have practiced for ages calling all the time to see i was right no one beleived me but it was the truth and the reason i can read the game so well.And thx to yours and every1s support i am starting to beleive in myself which as always been a problem in my life,the percentages you use etc i do not know to be honest,never considered needing to know the maths side of it,always gone with the way they play their hands and so on,percieved image.
But after seeing a lot of maths in poker might be my next learning curve i think just hope i dont mess up my game again as learning small ball did lol.
HEA486...

It can be rough dealing with the swings involved in poker. I mean at the core of it, any 2 cards can win pre flop, and no matter how big a favorite you are, if there is even a tiny chance you can lose, play long enough and you will lose when that tiny chance happens.

Let me put this question to you HEA486...

Let's say I offer to flip a coin with you.
I have a machine that is guarenteed by the most reliable authorities to be 100% fair in flipping the coin, so you know there is no bias one way or the other; we are straight up gambling on a 50/50 outcome...

If I win, you pay me $1.
If you win, I pay you $1.05.

Would you take the bet?

You should...

For each flip you can expect to win 2.5c.

If we flip long enough, you could break Bill Gates on that kind of deal (Well, maybe not, it depends on how fast the machine flips the coin, because Bill Gates makes $ pretty fast! ).

But even though it is in your best interest to gamble in that spot until your pockets are stuffed full of dollar bills, that is no guarentee that you will not LOSE the first 6 or 7 times the coin is flipped. If that happens, that happens. Keep flipping, eventually things will even out.

That was my whole point about the very first post in this thread...

If the EXACT same circumstances occur over and over, and you have no reason to assess the chance that your opponent has better than your set of 5s any more often than 83% of the time, you will break even on the final call; and just because you lose a time or 2 in that spot by making the call does not mean your decision was BAD...unless the info you were operating under was bad.

In your 55 hand, there were probably more than 16.67% of all hands that might have fit a TAG's playing style, that were worse than your set. So just being able to eliminate some of the wilder holdings that beat you (like 7d2c or 83h) from his overall range, increases the overall percentages of hands that he might have that you beat. That is what ranging an opponent based on your observations of his play is all about.

If the signs point to a decision being profitable, win or lose, you simply cannot let the results dictate your future actions...at least not without falling into habits that cause you to play losing poker.


Double Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 05:05 PM
(#18)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
lol i thought that when i read it back
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 05:08 PM
(#19)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
HEA486...

It can be rough dealing with the swings involved in poker. I mean at the core of it, any 2 cards can win pre flop, and no matter how big a favorite you are, if there is even a tiny chance you can lose, play long enough and you will lose when that tiny chance happens.

Let me put this question to you HEA486...

Let's say I offer to flip a coin with you.
I have a machine that is guarenteed by the most reliable authorities to be 100% fair in flipping the coin, so you know there is no bias one way or the other; we are straight up gambling on a 50/50 outcome...

If I win, you pay me $1.
If you win, I pay you $1.05.

Would you take the bet?

You should...

For each flip you can expect to win 2.5c.

If we flip long enough, you could break Bill Gates on that kind of deal (Well, maybe not, it depends on how fast the machine flips the coin, because Bill Gates makes $ pretty fast! ).

But even though it is in your best interest to gamble in that spot until your pockets are stuffed full of dollar bills, that is no guarentee that you will not LOSE the first 6 or 7 times the coin is flipped. If that happens, that happens. Keep flipping, eventually things will even out.

That was my whole point about the very first post in this thread...

If the EXACT same circumstances occur over and over, and you have no reason to assess the chance that your opponent has better than your set of 5s any more often than 83% of the time, you will break even on the final call; and just because you lose a time or 2 in that spot by making the call does not mean your decision was BAD...unless the info you were operating under was bad.

In your 55 hand, there were probably more than 16.67% of all hands that might have fit a TAG's playing style, that were worse than your set. So just being able to eliminate some of the wilder holdings that beat you (like 7d2c or 83h) from his overall range, increases the overall percentages of hands that he might have that you beat. That is what ranging an opponent based on your observations of his play is all about.

If the signs point to a decision being profitable, win or lose, you simply cannot let the results dictate your future actions...at least not without falling into habits that cause you to play losing poker.
understood thx again jd
 
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Tue Jan 17, 2012, 05:13 PM
(#20)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I haven't read through this lengthy thread, but my take on the hand in general is pretty simple. Personally I would have been raising right on the flop, I would have raised the turn, and as played, I would never fold for .10c into a pot of .62c on this board. We only need to win 14% of the time to break even on a call, and our hand strength is totally under repped. The villain can have a flush of course, or a straight (less likely) or even a bigger set, but he will also show up with 2 pair, top pair, and busted flush draws here too considering everyone just called both the flop and turn. I expect our hand is good well over 50% of the time even, which if accurate would warrant a raise on the river, but beyond that there is no way we aren't good at least 14% of the time in this spot so at least a call is in order.

Dave
cheers dave and yes i played it weak looking back thx for the incite appreciated and thx for generating the hand can see how bad i played it.
 

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