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Tricky spot with pocket tens

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Tricky spot with pocket tens - Wed Jan 18, 2012, 09:58 AM
(#1)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
I've had a few similar situations recently with middling pocket pairs. The flop leaves me with an overpair but on betting the flop I am raised, leaving me guessing whether I am facing an overplayed top pair, an aggressive bluff/semibluff or 2 pair or better.

In this hand the villain was loose passive, playing 43/10 over about 80 hands, calling open raises at about a 45% rate. I will occasionally just flat call preflop in this spot but in this case I raised, wanting to build a pot against a perceived weak opponent.

With an overpair on the flop, I bet out more than 2/3 of the pot, with the intention of charging draws to stay in, and hoping to get called by a weaker one pair hand. When villain raised I tried to make a mental list of his possible holdings. Any set (88,44, 33), an overpair (99, JJ perhaps, unlikely anything higher), A8 (would he really raise with this? unlikely perhaps, but less so if the Ace was a club), two pair hands, plus a range of straight, flush and especially combi draws.

I was running out of time to respond and so decided to call and await developments. I'm still not sure if this was the right thing to do. Perhaps it just comes down to how likely he was to raise with some combi hand (pair and flush draw, overcards and flush draw). With no specific read that he would be aggressive with these, would it be too nitty for me to just fold?

The turn card was obviously bad for me, as most of his draws would have been made. At this point I had few doubts about check/folding. It felt bad to call the flop raise then just give up, but did I really have much option?

As I said at the top, I do have problems playing these sorts of hands. I find it difficult to get a firm idea of how strong an overpair on the flop really is, when it is as low as TT, 99 or 88. Even if ahead on the flop, there will be a lot of turn cards that will make life difficult. I am coming round to the idea that the standard line should be a single stab at the flop and then give up unless the turn card is a notable dud. Any advice on this?

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Wed Jan 18, 2012, 10:31 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Man that is kind of nasty. It seems like a close decision between call or fold on the turn to me. I think folding was the right play though, considering your read on villain being a loose-passive player. Villain is taking an aggressive line post-flop. If that is out of character for him, it is very important to realize this and ask why.

You say villain is passive, but doesn't 43/10 mean he is raising preflop with 10% of his hands? Doesn't seem that passive to me. If that is a 10% preflop raise range, I wouldn't expect villain to limp in position with 99-JJ. That would make me weight his range post flop more towards small pocket pairs and (suited)connectors.

Against a perceived 'passive' player I would have to lay down TT here. He is probably going to be check/calling with most hands that our TT actually beats. So the fact that he is raising is a red flag. Villain is probably not going to raise the flop with A8, 89s, or a flush draw. Villain could raise flop with a set or overpair most of the time. If he has a set, then the only outs you have are flush and set draws. Your getting 3:1 pot odds and have 4:1 odds of hitting an out. Not worth chasing if you think your behind.

Against a loose-aggressive player I'd probably just reraise on flop and get stacks in if he wants. Without any reads on villain I would probably opt to fold and not get stacks in (which would probably happen going to showdown).

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Wed Jan 18, 2012 at 10:39 AM..
 
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Wed Jan 18, 2012, 03:13 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mytton View Post
I've had a few similar situations recently with middling pocket pairs. The flop leaves me with an overpair but on betting the flop I am raised, leaving me guessing whether I am facing an overplayed top pair, an aggressive bluff/semibluff or 2 pair or better.

In this hand the villain was loose passive, playing 43/10 over about 80 hands, calling open raises at about a 45% rate. I will occasionally just flat call preflop in this spot but in this case I raised, wanting to build a pot against a perceived weak opponent.

With an overpair on the flop, I bet out more than 2/3 of the pot, with the intention of charging draws to stay in, and hoping to get called by a weaker one pair hand. When villain raised I tried to make a mental list of his possible holdings. Any set (88,44, 33), an overpair (99, JJ perhaps, unlikely anything higher), A8 (would he really raise with this? unlikely perhaps, but less so if the Ace was a club), two pair hands, plus a range of straight, flush and especially combi draws.

I was running out of time to respond and so decided to call and await developments. I'm still not sure if this was the right thing to do. Perhaps it just comes down to how likely he was to raise with some combi hand (pair and flush draw, overcards and flush draw). With no specific read that he would be aggressive with these, would it be too nitty for me to just fold?

The turn card was obviously bad for me, as most of his draws would have been made. At this point I had few doubts about check/folding. It felt bad to call the flop raise then just give up, but did I really have much option?

As I said at the top, I do have problems playing these sorts of hands. I find it difficult to get a firm idea of how strong an overpair on the flop really is, when it is as low as TT, 99 or 88. Even if ahead on the flop, there will be a lot of turn cards that will make life difficult. I am coming round to the idea that the standard line should be a single stab at the flop and then give up unless the turn card is a notable dud. Any advice on this?

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Hello Mytton!

Middle pairs can be really tough to play, even when they are over pairs on a flop.

PRE FLOP:
I like the raise against this guy's range with TT.
There is simply too much value in it for you against his range not to raise.
The one thing that is important to note is that you cannot raise enough on this depth of money to make it possible for you to "stand" on 1 pair.

The opponent is simply too wide to really like OVER RAISING TT (as you could conceivably do with AA/KK versus a loose caller who is this deep), so the vulnerability of your hand on a lot of flops, and the smallish investment you are making pre flop, has to color the rest of your decisions.

FLOP:
While not normally a very scary board for TT when it raised pre, versus this opp, someone who will conceivably limp/call 2 random clubs or a 56 type hand, this is a little more worrisome.

Please note I am not saying "worrisome" in terms of thinking we are beat; we are RARELY beat here. I say "worrisome" from the perspective that we can bet any normal amount and this guy would probably NEVER fold if he had an 8 or 9 out draw. The only concern I have is balancing my value extraction with the possible future concern I might have about folding.

Because of this, I think I would prefer to lead for around half pot here, not 2/3rds Mytton.

Half pot still amply serves to deny odds to the most likely draws, but it allows us to continue an aggro line thru the turn without making a fold too expensive if a scary card comes. When we get min raised, a smaller C-Bet sizing also allows us to more easily 3bet our over pair than does a 2/3rds pot bet. If we 3bet over this min raise after betting 2/3rds pot, we are getting near to half our stack into the pot with a BIG question in our head:

"What do I do if another club or another straight card comes?"

TURN:
As played Mytton, I can really see why you'd check/fold the turn when the 5c falls. So MUCH of this guy's potential min raising range got there on you. You'd have to be "hoping" he raised an 8, or that he was on exactly 99 to really beat him now.

It just seems to me that your line, which started with a pretty large C-Bet when you were really going to fold on a decent number of turn cards, was the place things started to go wrong for you.

My opinion is that a half pot bet on the flop would have allowed you to 3bet your minor over pair for value on the flop. If/when this villain calls that bet, you could then lead the turn club with an intent to bet/fold if the villain raises again.

To me, while this might have cost you more than you actually lost (80c your way vs. about $1.50 to $2.00 my way), at least that extra money would have resulted in yu being quite SURE you were beat if you folded. It strikes me that as your line played out, you have to be wondering if you may still have folded to A8...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Jan 19, 2012 at 04:22 AM.. Reason: edited to tighten this.
 
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Thanks for the analysis - Thu Jan 19, 2012, 07:45 AM
(#4)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
Many thanks for the feedback. Lots of food for thought there.

RockerguyAA: Good point about villain likely raising 99-JJ, though with the small sample size I'm not sure how accurate a guide the 10% raising range actually is. I certainly could have been a bit more thorough in ranging the caller. It was the amount of limping, plus a tendency to call rather frequently postflop that led me to read villain as Passive (looking back at his stats, he had called 6 of 8 c bets). That and the fact that he was only playing the one single table of 5NL, often an early indicator that one might be dealing with a loose passive style fish.

JDean: Nice analysis, thanks. I take the point about the flop bet size giving me more room to manoevre later. Also good to have a reminder to take more notice of SPR even when the pot is initially quite small.
 
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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 01:09 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Missed the part about sample size being 80 hands. Definitely a small number. Going with your observations of his recent limping and postflop calling takes priority over (80hand)HUD stats.
 
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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 08:52 AM
(#6)
Sjekkkk's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 141
I totally agree with JD.
on the other hand you could also bet bigger about pot size then fold to any raise.
2/3 is just in between the little bet and the big bet.
personally I play these hands pretty cautiously.
This flop is really good for (semi) bluffing, generally most hands do not hit this flop. Therefore A big bet to get them to fold or a small bet and be ready to 3-bet.
From experience a lot of limping loose passive players do not bluff and usually only call with one pair
 
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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 09:48 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjekkkk View Post
I totally agree with JD.
on the other hand you could also bet bigger about pot size then fold to any raise.
2/3 is just in between the little bet and the big bet.
personally I play these hands pretty cautiously.
This flop is really good for (semi) bluffing, generally most hands do not hit this flop. Therefore A big bet to get them to fold or a small bet and be ready to 3-bet.
From experience a lot of limping loose passive players do not bluff and usually only call with one pair
^^ This is an option too, definately.

I think my personal preference would still be to bet half pot though, as I WANT him calling bad on a draw. So I still think I'd prefer a half pot bet, but a pot bet here is definately an option too.

Not so certain I agree with folding Immediately to a min raise type raise though; will have to think on that a bit.

Anyone else have thoughts about folding a minor over pair to this guy's range after a full pot bet, and a min raise?


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