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folded AA on the river

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folded AA on the river - Thu Jan 19, 2012, 01:59 PM
(#1)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
i know my opp is loose and will chase any draws

the flop and the turn he took some time calling

the moment the 3rd spade comes out he instantly shoves

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

crying call or good fold
 
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Thu Jan 19, 2012, 02:42 PM
(#2)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
This is extremely dependent on his postflop tendencies, but it looks to me like he either hit his flush or flopped two pair or a set, trying to act weak on the flop and turn. I see these guys do it quite a lot. Definitely a good fold with the info we're given.

Last edited by Feskprins; Thu Jan 19, 2012 at 03:56 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 19, 2012, 02:51 PM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
the opp may of floated and bluffed you,two pair a possibility,and the obvious flush,but tough decision when opps do that,i think he put you on ak and floated 2 pair something like kt off suit or even possible hit set with tens either way quality fold i recon.
 
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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 12:29 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello Marvinsytan!

I can understand your fold on the river, as this guy was not likely bluffing less than 1 pair there a whole lot of the time. But I'd like to present a possible alternate line for you if I may...

PRE FLOP:
Your action is fine really.

You can possibly try raising a LARGER amount to set up a low SPR going to the flop, and making a commitment on your over pair easier. The problem with raising larger with a hand you'd gladly commit on, is that this could possibly throw off "patterns" in your betting that opponents may use against you.

Add in the fact that even a LARGER RAISE, one that would set up a good SPR for AA vs. the shorter stack in the SB, may not set up a good SPR vs the larger stacked BB. So without knowing who may call along, a standard raise is fine.

so if you cannot set up a good SPR going to the flop for commitment on an over pair, you really want to have an idea ON THE FLOP how deeply into your stack you are going to go with AA.

FLOP:
This is the spot you must now decide what your opponent might have, and decide whether or not you intend to fold your over pair to any "scare cards" on the board (or indeed, fold at all). Are there enough threats to your over pair to make you even think of folding later?

Since you bet an amount which left the SPR going to the flop just above the range you would want to make comittng on jsut a single over pair easy, folding IS a perfectly acceptable option, but only if you do not "stick" yourself excessively deeply into the pot.

So in my opinion, if you have ANY intent to fold to a spade, or a lead jam by the opponent at any time (in case he flopped 2 pair or a set), you should have bet more around half pot. That amount still denies odds to most likely draws, it adds value for you in case you are ahead, but does not make a fold too pricey to contenence.

TURN:
When the villain flats your bet on the flop, you have to feel he has caught something he likes on the flop.
- He could have a good K, and you are well ahead
- He could have a set, and you are well behind
- He could have a draw, and you are ahead, but you may feel a fold is "necessary" on the river if a spade comes.

Again, this is a spot where I elect to bet smaller than you did, around half pot, if I have ANY intention of folding to a river spade, or to a river jam that could be a set.
By betting as you did, you created a large pot in relation to the remaining stack of the opponent, but one that was not LARGE ENOUGH to force you itno a "crying call" on the river.

RIVER:
As played, you really do bnot give enough info on the opponent to let us know if a fold or a call is the best paly here. Without that info, the best I can do is fall back on this info:

The pot = $4.12 going to the river.
The villain jams $2.73 on the 3rd spade.
That means I have to decide to commit $2.73 more for a chance to win $6.85.
Getting a price of 2.5 to 1 to call, I only need to feel the villain is on a K, or is bluffing a "scare card" about 28.5% of the time to break even on a call.
I KNOW that if I fold, I will be giving up any chance to get back the $2.00 or so I have invested already.
So I would probably make the crying call and hate it...

But I also know that if I had wanted to leave ROOM for a fold, I would have not bet large chunks on the flop and turn to make a fold too "expensive" to really be an option.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 01:25 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 02:12 PM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
good analysis

this helps a lot

i forgot to think that i will still fold at the river -- this i should put into my poker mind

i think i should have bet bigger post flop and bigger turn so that i committed myself not to fold on the river

maybe pot size bet on flop and turn so it will be easier for me to call an all in

lessons learned
 
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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 05:56 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hey Marvin, this is definitely an interesting and really important spot. Please elaborate on "loose and will chase any draws".

Is he a loose passive player? Is he loose and aggressive? Is he capable of making good or bad bluffs? Would he bluff this river? Do you really think he thinks he can get you off AA? If he's not bluffing then how wide is his value range? Can you really win with AA 30% against his value range?

Against your typical loose passive player this is a standard fold as he got there or is value-jamming T8 or better and maybe a couple kings (but not likely). Against his value shove range you're in pretty terrible shape. Good fold.

You could definitely consider betting smaller or even checking the turn if you can be scared off a bad river. This keeps your investment smaller if he does get there and you have to fold. Or you can bet much larger and really charge all hi weaker hands. You won't ever be folding the river though.


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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 06:28 PM
(#7)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
I must say. This is really a good place to learn.
I so appreciate you people putting in the time, especially JDean, he's a real schoolteacher - and schoolteachers rank top of the tops in my rankings of people, but obviously not just him.

If this link works... guess at what point in the graph I started reading here :)

Link does not, you'll have to sharkscope my graph yourselves if you want to waste a search.

Last edited by Don B. Cilly; Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 06:30 PM.. Reason: Link does not
 
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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 09:24 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi Marvin,

I think this is a good fold without further reads... if the guy were capable of big bluffs then I think we have to look him up, but in the absence of that info, the facts are:

-Not all players are capable of bluffing the river
-A large river bet is most often for value
-The insta-shove when someone hits a draw is a timing tell, designed to look bluffy and get a call
-You have played the hand strongly on all streets, he has no reason to think you're folding (in fact most of the player pool at microstakes would call with AK+ in your spot), so he should be expecting a call which makes this more likely a value shove.
-He is check-calling flop and turn either with a made hand or draw... the only holdings that make sense for him to be jamming now are spades, all the made hands don't like the spade any more than you do. And spades is consistent with the timing tell.
-The only flopped draw is spades. 2 pair or a set would generally raise the flop or turn, and never really take this line of check/call twice then bomb the river all in when the flush comes, 2 pair+ will generally check-call again on this river card. So it's likely the villain either has the flush, or a worse 1 pair hand that he's turning into a bluff. I don't think most microstakes random opponents even know what turning 1 pair into a bluff means, much less do it.

All the indicators seem to point to him having it. Once in a while we'll be folding the best hand but I think the vast majority of the time we're getting shown a flush in this spot.

Dave

PS @ Don... love the screen name.


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