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River Decision DEEP in a micro MTT

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River Decision DEEP in a micro MTT - Fri Jan 20, 2012, 01:35 PM
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CannonLee's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,418
check fold river, check call river....... thoughts?




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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 04:10 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hey Cannon, good question. Reads on dJ Star? Looks like he's just trying to pick up the pot on the turn although that card does hit a decent part of his range. He can also be value-betting a lot of hands here.

By jamming this river you are turning your hand into a bluff, but is that a bad thing? If you can fold out his two-pair hands, QJ+, etc. I think it's well worth it to pick up the pot. Your hand looks a lot like a pair+straight draw here and they all get there on the river. He's going to be hard-pressed to call without a 5 in his hand.

Funny thing is with his bet on the turn, pair+straight draw is in fact a pretty unlikely holding for him since he might be afraid to get raised off it and really can't get value from worse. What is he trying to get value from 54 with his 65?

So I love your river shove. He can fold a ton of better hands. If you check he will just check back all those sets and two pairs that beat you. Yes his shove range will mostly be bluffs, and hands like 57 and 55, so you would probably be right to call a shove, but you take down the pot so often by just shoving yourself that it's a better play. Yes if called you're beat, for sure, but the rest of the time you double your stack!


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Last edited by oriholic; Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 04:16 PM..
 

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