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2NL 6-max Flop trips with T7o fairly tight/passive SB shoves for 150 BBs

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2NL 6-max Flop trips with T7o fairly tight/passive SB shoves for 150 BBs - Fri Jan 20, 2012, 05:46 PM
(#1)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Okay so I'm playing 2NL 6-max against a bunch of fish. I decide to see a flop in position with T7o. I'm playing a lot of hands, trying to push my postflop edge. We see a flop 6 ways. It checks around to me and I bet 20¢ into 24¢ for value. The small blind instantly check-raises all in!

It folds around to me and I have a decision to make. The small blind is pretty tight and passive. Yes I flopped trips but what can I beat in the SB's range? What would he be jamming for 150 BBs here?

Seat 4: oriholic (4.49 in chips) - The button
Seat 6: mikeemike (1.74 in chips) - Big Blind
Seat 9: ArmanS (3.27 in chips)
Seat 5: Seaflake (2.98 in chips) - Small Blind
Seat 7: Royal Ace (2.67 in chips)
Seat 8: Kjomcdo (2.00 in chips)
Seaflake: posts small blind 0.01
mikeemike: posts big blind 0.02
Kjomcdo: post now 0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to oriholic
Royal Ace: calls 0.02
Kjomcdo: raises 0.02 to 0.04
ArmanS: calls 0.04
oriholic: calls 0.04
Seaflake: calls 0.03
mikeemike: calls 0.02
Royal Ace: calls 0.02
*** FLOP ***
Seaflake: checks
mikeemike: checks
Royal Ace: checks
Kjomcdo: checks
ArmanS: checks
oriholic: bets 0.20
Seaflake: raises 2.94 to 2.94 and is all in
mikeemike: folds
Royal Ace: folds
Kjomcdo: folds
ArmanS: folds
oriholic: ???

What I did, and why, to follow...


4 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by oriholic; Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 06:15 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 06:09 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hey ori!

In this spot, it feels to me like the pot is too small going to the flop for you to want to call here.

Sure, the nit may have AA and be jamming, but the paired board would probably worry a nit a little bit too. I would really think he is on AT here a bit too often to want to chase 24c with another 2.70.

As a LAG, I think I can just find too many better and more clear spots to get this guy's stack to want to pay him off.

I fold.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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Fri Jan 20, 2012, 09:11 PM
(#3)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I don't have a lot experience at these levels, but my gut feeling is a scared over pair. Opp could have a better ten, but could just as easily have a worse one. If I'm not bothered too much about losing the bet, I'm calling. I've seen much worse than trips push in this situation.

Isn't worrying about the other ten kinda like seeing monsters under the bed here...

 
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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 04:19 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Well it's 44¢ not 24¢, so at least I have that going.

There's 24¢ in the pot when I bet 20¢ so now it contains 44¢. When Seaflake jams for 294¢ (I'm just gonna use cents instead of dollars) I have to call 274¢ to win a pot of 44+294=338¢. To make this call +EV I need to win the pot 274/(274+338) = about 45% of the time.

So despite having what appears to be a very strong hand, is this the case here? What is the villain's range here? Obviously I expect them to jam any 10 and maybe even some overpairs (weiiiiird way to play them preflop though). But realistically how many worse 10s can he have? He's a fairly tight player and I think it's super unlikely he calls a raise from the SB with T2-T6. At the same time, maybe he can have a hand like T5s because it was so cheap to see a flop (and thus I really can't eliminate them from his range as I sometimes could), but I digress.

Let's assume he can have any 10, overpair, or 44. I don't ever expect him to jam a big diamond draw. In this case I'm about a 45/35/20 favorite (lots of chops). This is about a 55/45 edge, which is fairly nice.

But how does he really get here with an overpair? And would he really jam his whole stack in? He'd most likely 3-bet them preflop. At least QQ+. If we allow him to just call with JJ and then shove it here (which is really strange still) as well as any ten, we're now a 30/42/28 dog. And if we remove JJ we're even worse with about 23/45/32. So we're about 40/60 here.

This isn't a spot where we're 3-bet/getting it in against an aggressive player who has a fairly wide range on this flop, this is calling a 7x pot shove from someone relatively nitty. And to this point I have not yet seen this player shove like this.

Other considerations may include the fact that I'm playing a $3 buyin on a ~$18 bankroll and may prefer to take lower variance +EV spots. Also, similar to a tournament mindset, my skill edge is too great for me to risk such a large percentage of my bankroll in such a marginal spot when there will be much juicier ones later at a table full of fish.

Obviously I wasn't able to do this math or really think this detailed in the 10 seconds allotted, but I did think about some of this stuff. I was unsure about my actual equity against his range, but it didn't really look too great when I thought about it.

After thinking about it for most of the 10 seconds allotted I made my decision.

I moved my mouse towards the fold button.



...And I called.

I misclicked call. Predictably he showed up with AT and I did not bink my 3-outer to save 1/6 of my bankroll. He disappeared pretty quickly afterward, having achieved his double-up.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 04:47 PM
(#5)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Well it's 44¢ not 24¢, so at least I have that going.

There's 24¢ in the pot when I bet 20¢ so now it contains 44¢. When Seaflake jams for 294¢ (I'm just gonna use cents instead of dollars) I have to call 274¢ to win a pot of 44+294=338¢. To make this call +EV I need to win the pot 274/(274+338) = about 45% of the time.

So despite having what appears to be a very strong hand, is this the case here? What is the villain's range here? Obviously I expect them to jam any 10 and maybe even some overpairs (weiiiiird way to play them preflop though). But realistically how many worse 10s can he have? He's a fairly tight player and I think it's super unlikely he calls a raise from the SB with T2-T6. At the same time, maybe he can have a hand like T5s because it was so cheap to see a flop (and thus I really can't eliminate them from his range as I sometimes could), but I digress.

Let's assume he can have any 10, overpair, or 44. I don't ever expect him to jam a big diamond draw. In this case I'm about a 45/35/20 favorite (lots of chops). This is about a 55/45 edge, which is fairly nice.

But how does he really get here with an overpair? And would he really jam his whole stack in? He'd most likely 3-bet them preflop. At least QQ+. If we allow him to just call with JJ and then shove it here (which is really strange still) as well as any ten, we're now a 30/42/28 dog. And if we remove JJ we're even worse with about 23/45/32. So we're about 40/60 here.

This isn't a spot where we're 3-bet/getting it in against an aggressive player who has a fairly wide range on this flop, this is calling a 7x pot shove from someone relatively nitty. And to this point I have not yet seen this player shove like this.

Other considerations may include the fact that I'm playing a $3 buyin on a ~$18 bankroll and may prefer to take lower variance +EV spots. Also, similar to a tournament mindset, my skill edge is too great for me to risk such a large percentage of my bankroll in such a marginal spot when there will be much juicier ones later at a table full of fish.

Obviously I wasn't able to do this math or really think this detailed in the 10 seconds allotted, but I did think about some of this stuff. I was unsure about my actual equity against his range, but it didn't really look too great when I thought about it.

After thinking about it for most of the 10 seconds allotted I made my decision.

I moved my mouse towards the fold button.



...And I called.

I misclicked call. Predictably he showed up with AT and I did not bink my 3-outer to save 1/6 of my bankroll. He disappeared pretty quickly afterward, having achieved his double-up.
missed this one what an interesting senario,
 
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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 05:36 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Well it's 44¢ not 24¢, so at least I have that going.
By "chasing 24c" I meant the amount you had invested in the pot yourself.


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