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Should I have made this call?

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Should I have made this call? - Sat Jan 21, 2012, 07:16 PM
(#1)
bibliofagos's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 24
Huge pot for a 5/10c cashgame.

Opp was new at the table (his second hand), and for the first time here I used most of the time bank to go over the hand. My gut said he was bluffing (60-40), based on:

- If he hit the 7s on the flop, he could have check-raised, but considering him taking initiative on the turn, I put him on a flush-draw.

Was it a good call, or did I luck out?

 
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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 10:50 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Bibliofagos!

Well...based on the minimal info your provide in your description, yes, you did get kind of lucky.

I am not saying there isn;t REASON to stay with AA here, there are a lot of pp he could be betting here afterall. I say that because you say your read was based on the fact the villain COULD have C/R'ed the flop...

The villain DID C/R the flop.

He checked, you led for 33c, and he C/R'ed to 90c.

If your "feeling" that he was bluffing was based on the fact he DID NOT C/R the flop, then that feeling was faulty.

A C/R can indicate strength, but it is usually not done on the flop; most folks will let you bet the turn before triggering a C/R. So I'm not saying you were wrong to think you might still be ahead, but if the REASON you thought you might be was because he did not C/R the flop, then that reaosn is wrong.

As played...

Going to the flop, the SPR was a bit over 10.
This is a medium SPR, and that usually does not favor stacking off with an over pair.
Still, your raise was pretty soild pre flop, and not a lot of "normal" ranges will have hands in them that contain a 7 to call from the SB.

Since you lack reads on this opp, I could see a call down on AA certainly, even after the C/R.

When villain takes the initiative on the turn, and you call his $1.60 bet, not a lot has changed; if you were ahead on the flop you are probably STILL ahead on the turn. This may have been the place to decide if you were going to play him for his whole stack, not waiting until the river.

I think I'd prefer an immediate raise here if you intended to call his stack on the river if he jammed. The major reason I say this is because if he is behind, especially if he is drawing, you may NOT get the added value from him if he misses the river; he could check/fold. So why leave the initiative on him to bluff off the rest of his stack if you can either A) get him to put it in NOW when behind, or B) possibly fold out ANY threat to your holding on the river in a pretty large pot?

And...

If you were too worried about being beat to raise the turn, why not credit the flop C/R for strength, and fold the turn bet beore it gets too expensive to do so?

The river came, meh.

By that time, the villain has less than 1 pot size bet left in his stack, but the T pairing makes for a pretty good threat to you. You need to call $4.70 to win $10.40, and are getting 2.2 to 1 on a call. This means you msut be "right" about 31.25% of the time (a bit under a third) to break even on a call.

Without info, I cannot really say you have that, but I also cannot say you don't have it either...

I do know the river T takes away a good bit of this opp's range that you WERE ahead of, so it is a risk. A lot would go into what you'd range him on...

Without other info I'd generally say:

First, I am thinking much of his betting/raising range here is tied up in AT/KT/QT type hands. These are hands some opp's might C/R the flop on, thinking that your raise range is un-likely to have a 7 in it, as well as because he holds a blocker to you having TT.

KK/QQ are certainly strong enough to 3bet you pre, so you have to down grade those a bit.
JJ is the only likely "strong" PP he might have to C/R the flop, as most "normal" opp's will tend to check/call on pp 22 - 99 (any pp under T).

2 diamond hands are un-likely to be in his range, as he C/R'ed BEFORE he picked up the flush draw, although 98d specifically might be there. Again though, a lot of normal opp's will check/call oesd on the flop, not semi bluff them C/R them.

So it looks like too much of his possible range "got there" on you to really love calling the rest of his stack without more info. I wouldn't call it a HUGE MISTAKE that you called though, because the pot had grown, but I think if you had no intent of folding to ANYTHING on the river, you may have been better served by immediately raising his lead bet on the turn and committing yourself.

$4.70 is a pretty big chunk to call off on the river juut on "hope" when that T falls, although the pot was pretty big by that point and you may be making a crying call more often than not...

I'd prefer to raise earlier an make the river call a lot easier, and simplify my decisions when there is a lot bigger chance I am still ahead.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 03:04 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 03:17 AM
(#3)
bibliofagos's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 24
Hey JDean,

First of all thanks for taking the time on this hand. It I think it does help me. I can see why raising him on the turn would've made things easier for me there.

There was however a little misunderstanding:
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Hi Bibliofagos!
I am not saying there isn;t REASON to stay with AA here, there are a lot of pp he could be betting here afterall. I say that because you say your read was based on the fact the villain COULD have C/R'ed the flop...

The villain DID C/R the flop.

He checked, you led for 33c, and he C/R'ed to 90c.

If your "feeling" that he was bluffing was based on the fact he DID NOT C/R the flop, then that feeling was faulty.
-JDean
In my original post I was trying to say that, based on his check-raise on the flop, I did not think he had a 7. I thought he had an overpair, and he might have a 10, so my hand was still good (in my mind).
When he took initiative on the turn, I though he might be on a flushdraw.

Thing is, it was his second hand on the table, didn't see him before, and his betting 'felt' wrong to me after the turn, like he was trying to bluff me out of the pot. I know it can be quite costly to go on feelings.

It's not that I didn't have the intention to fold to anything on the flop. It's a micro table, and people call with anything from the small blind (I've seen it happen time and again), and with this being his second hand (he staid only for about 8 hands, losing about $10), I didn't have any reads on him whatsoever.

If the river had been a 3rd diamond I probably would have let him have it, and maybe even when it had been a J or 6, but I just didn't think he had the 7 or T.

Anyway, thanks a lot for the effort!
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 03:55 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bibliofagos View Post
Hey JDean,

First of all thanks for taking the time on this hand. It I think it does help me. I can see why raising him on the turn would've made things easier for me there.

There was however a little misunderstanding:


In my original post I was trying to say that, based on his check-raise on the flop, I did not think he had a 7. I thought he had an overpair, and he might have a 10, so my hand was still good (in my mind).
When he took initiative on the turn, I though he might be on a flushdraw.

Thing is, it was his second hand on the table, didn't see him before, and his betting 'felt' wrong to me after the turn, like he was trying to bluff me out of the pot. I know it can be quite costly to go on feelings.

It's not that I didn't have the intention to fold to anything on the flop. It's a micro table, and people call with anything from the small blind (I've seen it happen time and again), and with this being his second hand (he staid only for about 8 hands, losing about $10), I didn't have any reads on him whatsoever.

If the river had been a 3rd diamond I probably would have let him have it, and maybe even when it had been a J or 6, but I just didn't think he had the 7 or T.

Anyway, thanks a lot for the effort!
Hi again Biblifagos.

Sorry about mis-reading what you meant to put out there in your post. It totally colored my assessment of your play in the hand. My gut feeling was that you seemed a bit "confused" in that spot, having "missed" the fact the villain did C/R, and un-sure on the river especially.

I find that if I am confused, but facing a big bet, the better course can often be to FOLD and move on, saving what I can. That was why I wrote what I did...

My suggestion of a turn raise was largely designed to help alleviate confusion, as it would certainly lend clarity to your hand; your river decision is automatic after a standard type raise, come what may. It seemed simple to me when I saw your lead in: if you are going to flat, you may as well raise, or just fold to the bet on the turn if you do not feel comfortable raising.

After your clarification though, it is apparent you were NOT "confused" in the hand. As such, while I personally still favor a raise on the turn, simply because I too see a flop C/R there as somewhat "weak", I have no issue whatsoever in taking a call line so long as you have no intent to fold the river. May as well let a bluffer (or someone over valuing a worse hand) keep feeding the pot, right?

That T is the exact reason WHY I favor a raise on the turn tho...

Without info on whether this guy will bluff/semi bluff 3 barrels, it is more likely he is over valuing some holding. To me the most likely thing he could over value is a decent T. That river just saw the T get there...

I really do not want to leave a near pot bet in my opponent's stack that will test me quite strongly on a card like that. I am not saying your line was bad, since you did pull the trigger on a call. I just rather would avoid a touchy spot like that without more info on an opp myself.

So I like a turn raise when I have max chance of being "right" about holding a better hand.

Sorry for the mis-read.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 04:42 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 06:11 AM
(#5)
bibliofagos's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 24
Hi again JDean,

Again my thanks for the time you put into this. Funny thing: I read your second response, and went grocery shopping while thinking it over. I came back here to read it again, and I saw you changed your response quite a bit. Not very much in your analysis, but mainly in 'color' and 'tone'.

There are a couple of things I think I can make of this (correct me if I'm wrong):
- There are very little absolutes in Poker
- To avoid having to make the difficult decision I faced on the river, better try to win it at the turn when I had reason to think I was ahead
- I wasn't over-obsessing about this particular hand, if even you kept coming back to it

bibliofagos
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 07:04 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by bibliofagos View Post
Hi again JDean,

Again my thanks for the time you put into this. Funny thing: I read your second response, and went grocery shopping while thinking it over. I came back here to read it again, and I saw you changed your response quite a bit. Not very much in your analysis, but mainly in 'color' and 'tone'.

There are a couple of things I think I can make of this (correct me if I'm wrong):
- There are very little absolutes in Poker
- To avoid having to make the difficult decision I faced on the river, better try to win it at the turn when I had reason to think I was ahead
- I wasn't over-obsessing about this particular hand, if even you kept coming back to it

bibliofagos
Yeah, I re-read what I had written, and it was a jumble.

The thing of it was, the first analysis was written to account for the fact that I probably was going to call the river myself if I am being honest. I'd not like it, but I would have called.

While a lack of reads can be highly troublesome, you really do have to credit info you get in the play of a hand too, and someone who flops a 7 (or Ts full) isn't really going to run you out of the pot, nor put you on AA and bet immediately. That's why the first time around I really couldn't find "fault" in what you did (except in the mis-understanding).

There certainly are no absolutes in poker.

I am not saying raise the turn because you want to blow him off a bluff, mind you, I am saying raise for value because that is the point where you are likely to get called by less.

If this guy were someone who would over value a hand like AT (or someone who would flat a pre flop raise with KK/QQ), the turn is where your decision process is easiest, and most likely to get you paid off. He may well convince himself that YOU are bluffing on a flush draw you picked up, and call on the T. If you flat however, the fact he fired 2 bullets at you, and you did NOT fold, may well lead him to check/call on a T himself.

Of course all that is up in the air, pie in the sky speculation. We really did not have enough info to know WHAT might be going through this guy's head. Even the speculation I made regarding "normal" play tendencies are just guesses; at the end we see this guy is hardly "normal".

So it boils down to these simple facts:

- You saw a C/R on the flop, and that can often be weaker hand than AA on a dry paired board.
- You saw him continue with the betting lead into the turn, and the pot built.
- You saw the turn card that was pretty much a blank.

That is where we diverge really.

Me, I want to raise if I have sensed weakness, as if this guy is over-valuing a T, or JJ, or whatever, as that may get me paid. I have no clue what the river will bring, and whether or not this guy will continue to pay his chips in for me bad.

You elected to let him keep bluffing, and were going to (probably) pay him off if he were on a T.

My way is probably "safer", insofar if anything will wake him up to the fact he cannot river bluff, a turn raise would do it. Your way was more likely to get MORE VALUE, but at potentially greater risk (either of the villain drawing out, or in him seeing a card that he was un-willing to keep putting money in on, or in possibly making you think about a fold). to me, as long as you are NEVER folding the river, this is just fine.

Without info, it is really a toss up as to which is "better", ya know?

So yep, you basically got all the points I was laying out!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 07:12 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 12:30 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by bibliofagos View Post
In my original post I was trying to say that, based on his check-raise on the flop, I did not think he had a 7. I thought he had an overpair, and he might have a 10, so my hand was still good (in my mind). When he took initiative on the turn, I though he might be on a flushdraw.
Good discussion, just one thing I'd like to add regarding this. The villain is not taking the initiative on the turn... he already has it from the flop check-raise and is just retaining it by continuing on the turn. In order for him to have a flush draw on the turn, that would mean he had to check-raise the flop with air, but that wasn't your read on the flop. The one draw he could have is 98, but a flush draw is extremely unlikely (both combinatorically and as it's inconsistent with the action).

Dave


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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 03:03 PM
(#8)
bibliofagos's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 24
Erm... yes. You're right, lol. Thanks for you're added insight, Dave.

Still a lot of things that go by me and trying to incorporate all things that I see and learn in my game is gonna take a little while. But when you're just starting, the only way is up
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 11:17 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Good discussion, just one thing I'd like to add regarding this. The villain is not taking the initiative on the turn... he already has it from the flop check-raise and is just retaining it by continuing on the turn. In order for him to have a flush draw on the turn, that would mean he had to check-raise the flop with air, but that wasn't your read on the flop. The one draw he could have is 98, but a flush draw is extremely unlikely (both combinatorically and as it's inconsistent with the action).

Dave
I agree that a flush draw isn't really likely Dave. In fact in the first response to Bibliofagos, I mentioned that the only diamond draw that would fit the circumstances was specifically 98d.

That was part of the "jumble" though that caused me to edit what I wrote.

This is a good point in the discussion, but I took it out because it was taking us a bit too far a-field. My edited response put forth what I saw as the IMPORTANT points that argue toward a turn raise...

- You sense weakness in the flop line by the opp
- The turn is a blank
- You can then elect to leave the (near) pot size bet in his stack and CALL it on the river no matter what, or raise and prevent any scary card from worrying you.

Me, I prefer the turn raise, as that ensures I won't lose heart no matter what comes. Plus, it gets me value if the guy has JJ (or 55) and calls the raise. I would only prefer the call line to let this guy bluff himself off if I have info that says he IS a bluffer.

We lack that though.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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