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Sunday Warm Up Satelite

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Sunday Warm Up Satelite - Sun Jan 22, 2012, 09:43 AM
(#1)
AJEI's Avatar
Since: Oct 2008
Posts: 61
We have 4 seats to be won, and $33 for 5th, i had invested $51. I reached final table as big chip lidder and was playing extremely tight. Only had played like 3 hands at all on final table. Now with the blinds so high and only 5 left i had lost the chip lead but was still near the top.



Should i have let this AK gone and not risk 1/2 my stack, or its just one of those coin flips ? The all-in player was a supernova, and i had not seen many of his hands since most hands where done pre-flop.
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 03:12 PM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
It is a flip but everyone is pretty deep, even if you count the antes: it is really close whether to call or fold and so read dependent but the odds are wrong so I would have folded the AK in this case as it is a satty and you want the ticket I assume!

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 03:15 PM..
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 05:21 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,801
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi AJEI!

With this being a satellite, the goal is to do whatever possible to guarantee a top 4 position and get the ticket. Winning the tourney is not the goal, only to get into the top 4.

If this was a std mtt, then I like the call here (I'd actually overshove, to put more pressure on the BB to fold, as I'd want to be isolated against the shortstack).

With this being a satty, I'm going to be more cautious here and fold. AK is a hand with great potential, but it's only ace high. I wouldn't want to be calling a large enough stack that could knock me out of the top 4 without a made hand.
The opp should be shoving here with a bit better hand since they have 17+BB's left. They shouldn't put their tourney life on the line without a hand that has playability.

Also, if the opp had a much smaller stack, where losing the hand would not knock me out of the top 4, then I'd be much more tempted to call (overshove) here.

Due to wanting to preserve my top 4 chip position, I'd fold in this situation, to hopefully guarantee the ticket.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 05:27 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi AJEI, nice run in the Sunday Warm-up satellite! Tough field I'm sure as some of the top players play the satellites to get a cheap entry. A satellite plays very different than any other tournament at this point though, which makes the answer strange sometimes.

Pretty sure it's a fold and I don't think it's even close... This is a very straightforward ICM question.Top 4 spots pay 215, 5th is 51, or effectively at this point, top 4 pay 164, 5th is zero.

That's the difference between a satellite where top x spots pay the same and a tournament where they pay differently. There is no incentive to be 1st place. All you need to do is survive the bubble.

Let's assume for a minute that he's pushing any two cards here. Against that range AKo has about 66% equity. Is that good enough to call? For it to be good enough to call we have to think that there's a very high chance that we can't outlast this guy with half our stack.

[Sorry this is going to be very number-full]

If we fold our equity is about $141.
If we call and win we get $164 (the game is over)
If we call and lose our equity is about $101.

So if we win this all-in we win $23, but if we lose we lose $40! Losing hurts almost 2 times as much as winning helps us!

If we win this 2/3 of the time and lose 1/3 of the time then our +$EV looks like this:
2/3*23-1/3*40=+$2

So against a range of any two cards we do make $2 every time we make this call.

But that's if he's pushing any two. With 18 BBs he's not yet desperate enough to jam any two. What about 20%? That seems pretty loose to shove 18 BBs. [55+ 98s+ A2s+ K7s+ JTo+] Now we're about 60%.
.6*23-.4*40=-$2.20

Now we lose about $2 when we call.

Also if you were big chipleader you should basically be folding every hand and making sure you don't bleed too low in chips.

You can call with AA though.

Say he's still pushing 20% and we have AA. We have about 84% equity. We still win $23 when we win and lose $40 when we lose.

.84*23-.16*40=+$12.92

On these stack sizes we still win $EV by calling with AA no matter what, which is nice (and not always the case!)

Can we call QQ?

Well against 20% range we have about 70% equity

.7*23-.3*40=+$4 so we're still okay if he's that wide.

But I don't believe he's pushing that wide on 18 BBs. We do see him with 88, so let's give him a 10% range and assume he pushed with something near the bottom of it.

QQ is 64% against a 10% range.

.64*23-.36*40=+$0.32 So it's basically a break-even call.

Calling with QQ against a 10% shoving range in this spot is super marginal!

So yeah, I think AKo is a pretty easy fold in this spot, but QQ is close. I'd probably fold QQ though, as I really don't know this guy's range and it's only marginally +$EV but pretty high variance. If he's pushing <8% it's a fold and the line here is too close. The only hands I'm calling with are probably KK and AA. It's unfortunate, but that's the nature of satellites.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 09:59 PM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
wow great job

just fold

lots of numbers in here

learned something here too



Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Hi AJEI, nice run in the Sunday Warm-up satellite! Tough field I'm sure as some of the top players play the satellites to get a cheap entry. A satellite plays very different than any other tournament at this point though, which makes the answer strange sometimes.

Pretty sure it's a fold and I don't think it's even close... This is a very straightforward ICM question.Top 4 spots pay 215, 5th is 51, or effectively at this point, top 4 pay 164, 5th is zero.

That's the difference between a satellite where top x spots pay the same and a tournament where they pay differently. There is no incentive to be 1st place. All you need to do is survive the bubble.

Let's assume for a minute that he's pushing any two cards here. Against that range AKo has about 66% equity. Is that good enough to call? For it to be good enough to call we have to think that there's a very high chance that we can't outlast this guy with half our stack.

[Sorry this is going to be very number-full]

If we fold our equity is about $141.
If we call and win we get $164 (the game is over)
If we call and lose our equity is about $101.

So if we win this all-in we win $23, but if we lose we lose $40! Losing hurts almost 2 times as much as winning helps us!

If we win this 2/3 of the time and lose 1/3 of the time then our +$EV looks like this:
2/3*23-1/3*40=+$2

So against a range of any two cards we do make $2 every time we make this call.

But that's if he's pushing any two. With 18 BBs he's not yet desperate enough to jam any two. What about 20%? That seems pretty loose to shove 18 BBs. [55+ 98s+ A2s+ K7s+ JTo+] Now we're about 60%.
.6*23-.4*40=-$2.20

Now we lose about $2 when we call.

Also if you were big chipleader you should basically be folding every hand and making sure you don't bleed too low in chips.

You can call with AA though.

Say he's still pushing 20% and we have AA. We have about 84% equity. We still win $23 when we win and lose $40 when we lose.

.84*23-.16*40=+$12.92

On these stack sizes we still win $EV by calling with AA no matter what, which is nice (and not always the case!)

Can we call QQ?

Well against 20% range we have about 70% equity

.7*23-.3*40=+$4 so we're still okay if he's that wide.

But I don't believe he's pushing that wide on 18 BBs. We do see him with 88, so let's give him a 10% range and assume he pushed with something near the bottom of it.

QQ is 64% against a 10% range.

.64*23-.36*40=+$0.32 So it's basically a break-even call.

Calling with QQ against a 10% shoving range in this spot is super marginal!

So yeah, I think AKo is a pretty easy fold in this spot, but QQ is close. I'd probably fold QQ though, as I really don't know this guy's range and it's only marginally +$EV but pretty high variance. If he's pushing <8% it's a fold and the line here is too close. The only hands I'm calling with are probably KK and AA. It's unfortunate, but that's the nature of satellites.
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 11:53 PM
(#6)
Fillmore 59's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 131
+1 great job oriholic.

So close to my goal in a satty I fold AK easily in this spot. Still, the ICM hocus pocus and math razzle dazzle is really fun to see. And I learned from it too.
 

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