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J,J vs TAGish OPP OOP - Sun Jan 22, 2012, 10:58 AM
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! guys, not sure if I played this hand right and if it was a good fold.

I had been on the table for about 60 hands and I had a tight image. Most of hands I won without showdown and those that went to showdown I won all but one hand.

The opp had been on the table before I joined the table and he had been playing tight as well from what I saw over those 60 hands or so.

I thought about min. 4betting pre-flop with a plan to fold to 5bet or if we get called than go for set mining and if our hand does not fit the flop, check fold on the flop. Could this be a better line in this situation considering we would loose the same amount but maybe we can get more info about the strength of the opp's hand this day?

Instead I decided to flat call the 3bet and once the opp double barrels on the turn I decided to fold the hand since I wasn't sure where I was at in the hand.

I had raised the previous hand before this one and won the blinds pre flop. Could this be a factor in the opp's play? Having said that he hadn't 3bet me before so its possible he did pick up a hand.

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 09:46 PM
196bulb's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1
Im never Folding There im atleast seeing a river, if it's not a club im calling it off
Sun Jan 22, 2012, 11:35 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi deadeyz,

I know what I'm about to say is going to raise eyebrows, but bear with me until the end please.

It is actually not terrible to fold preflop to his 3b.

The reason is a tight guy 3-betting (from early position) the UTG raise of another tight player is going to have a very strong range. JJ does not play well vs. this range, and you'll be out of position without the initiative if you call, making calling unattractive. 4-betting is also unattractive, since we'll only fold out the few hands in the bottom of his 3-betting range that JJ plays well against and get action from all the better ones.

This is an idea I picked up a while back from one of Dusty Schmidt's books. He was talking about similar spots with JJ but he was referencing 6 max games vs. solid 3-bettors... here it's full ring vs. a tight 3-bettor which makes the ranges even worse for us. Dusty ended the discussion with something along the lines of "I realize it sounds incredibly weak to fold in this spot, but I've got a database of over a million hands that says continuing is costing me money." After reading that I went to my own database (a few hundred thousand hands) and found the same thing.

I'm not saying we should just always muck JJ pre to a 3b, of course not, but out of position vs. a tight 3-betting range, it's just hard to continue in any remotely profitable manner.

In the case of this hand, the stacks are actually deep enough that you can probably call to set mine, starting 176bb deep effective you have implied odds of about 22-1. But it's not quite that simple. If you flop a J it's easy, if overcards flop it's easy, but the tricky part is on rag flops like this. His range is still tight, but it's hard to release an overpair to a single bet since he may just be following through with AK. So now it's costing us more than the initial preflop call... there go the implied odds. On the turn I think this is a good fold. Sometimes we'll be laying down the best hand to AK with the Ac, but the vast majority of the time we're no good here. Stats I would look at if we had the history would be turn c-bet (how often does he barrel, i.e. does this turn bet mean he's likely got it, or is he sometimes pressing simply because we checked), and how often does he go to showdown (can we rep a scary turn or river card)?

Very tough spot to play well 176 bb's deep... even with a starting hand that's generally very strong, when we're this deep out of position and are facing aggression, it creates a lot of difficult and bad spots for us, especially when the aggressor is solid or has a tight range.


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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 04:54 PM
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! Dave, Thank you very much for your analysis. That makes me feel a lot better that I made the right decision, be it 2 streets late but none the less the right decision in the end. My reason for folding was that I had only invested 23bb in the pot so rather than being stubbron fold this hand and maybe find a better spot down the line.

As I said in the original post that I did think about 4bet (which I gather from you feedback is -EV in the long run) and even folding pre-flop as well for the reason being OOP but I thought that would be way too nitty so I went for a coward's route of flatting instead.

I must give credit to PSO and you guys - the hand analyzers - cos 3 months ago I would have lost a lot more in a similar spot. So here is to you guys.


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