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Value betting over pair to the board

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Value betting over pair to the board - Sun Jan 22, 2012, 12:49 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! guys, Not an eventful hand but just wondering what are the pros and cons for value betting over pair to the board in this spot?



I don't have any solid reads on the opp, up to this the opp had been playing very snug. After the opp takes the initiative pre-flop and taking a stab on the flop gives up on the turn and river, we can be pretty sure that our hand is good here. If the opp had J,J+ you would expect him to continue with his aggression but once he shuts down on the turn I put him on big Ace or broadway cards maybe with flush draw. If you are pretty certain you have the best hand, what would be the best course of action to take on the river in this spot?

Cheers
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 01:30 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
the way this went down preflop,personally i'd be good with getting 2 streets of value here w/ a pr. of 10s from a "very snug" opp.
if he put all that $ in peeling w/ overs, (which doesn't really, sound like it fits that category) then your not gettin' any more outta him anyway.
you got showdown value, but if you bet and are played back at, your crushed. he's not calling with underpairs to 7s . that only leaves big aces, better pairs than yours and sets.
check it down and rake your pot or lose the minimum. just my .02

Last edited by mtnestegg; Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 01:38 PM..
 
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Sun Jan 22, 2012, 11:49 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,496
(Head Trainer)
Hi deadeyz,

I have 2 responses, because they're inter-related.

The first addresses your sentiment that you feel pretty certain you're ahead on the river. I would not feel so certain. The villain is snug (tight), he's 3b pre and c-bet the flop with presumably a very strong range and been called twice. It's very common for snug/tight/nitty opponents to go into check/call mode at this point in the hand with premium pairs. So I don't think we can just rule out AA/KK/QQ/JJ, in particular QQ and JJ which he's also worried about bigger pocket pairs. If he had AK it's very likely he just check-folds to your turn bet, so when he calls, I'm really not liking my hand any more. Even if he does have AK (maybe with the flush draw), he's never calling with worse hands than TT on the river, so there's no more value to be extracted imo... like mtn said 2 streets has got to be the max we can get from worse in the hands of a snug player. So I would check it down and hope I win, but tbh I'll be pleasantly surprised if I do.

The other part I want to address is the question how do you proceed if you're sure you've got the best hand. Well if we're certain we have the best hand then we should always value bet something, even if it's just a token (smaller) value bet. Even if it seems like the villain can't ever call, if we can't be beat then there's no downside to the bet and all upside since sometimes villains make mistakes. (In your hand however my confidence in our holding goes down when the villain calls our turn bet).

Dave


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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 12:58 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello dedeyez.

If you think the opp is tight, I'd prefer to not bet this river for value, not even token value.

I agree totally with Dave: this guy can be on a flush draw with 2 overs, but he also might put you on that and not bet something like JJ or even QQ (if he is passive too).

By v-betting the river you are re-opening the betting, and without info on this guy's ability to try a river bluff or his willingness to call lite, that can be dangerous. If you had QQ+ here I'd favor a v-bet on the river certainly, but I'm not so sure on TT or JJ that is going to get you anything from a tight player except maybe a raise you might have trouble calling, or a fold.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 04:52 AM..
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 01:59 AM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi deadeyz

Definitely checking back the river here. We do beat a decent amount of his possible holdings for sure. AK, AQ, QJ, A high clubs (probably down to AT), K high clubs (down to KJ). But will even one of them call a bet? We also lose to JJ+, and some hands like JT and sets. Will even one of them fold?

I think the answer is no to both, so we're best off checking back and hoping we're against a busted draw. Is there a chance he folds JJ? Maybe, but that actually turns this into a really thin bluff since he simply has no worse calling hands in his range. Do you really think he'll bluff-catch us two streets with AK/AQ figuring that we missed our draw? Probably not on this board.


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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 04:34 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Actually...

I may have been rash in saying QQ+ is a definate V-Bet. KK/AA is clear, but a discussion has me re-thinking QQ specifically...

My initial statement was base largely on the fact that, combinatronically we are ahead of 2 over pairs (JJ/TT) and behind 2 (AA/KK); QQ is quite un-likely as we hold blockers of course. To my initial thought, that meant it was a clear V-Bet because we are "breaking even" on made hands that call in terms of what we beat and what we are behind.

It now occurs to me, after the convo I had...can we really say a nit, about whom you have minimal info, has enough info on YOU to think you might bet a busted draw there?

If we lack that info, then QQ is no longer "break even" because he may NOT call 100% of the time on TT/JJ, whereas he probably is calling 100% of the time (or near enough) on AA/KK. So the balance of a V-bet is still tilted slightly in favor of folding out worse and getting called by better even with QQ.

So the only clear V bet hands are probably KK/AA, and any other hand is a check behind.


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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 04:48 AM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Hi deadeyz

Definitely checking back the river here. We do beat a decent amount of his possible holdings for sure. AK, AQ, QJ, A high clubs (probably down to AT), K high clubs (down to KJ). But will even one of them call a bet? We also lose to JJ+, and some hands like JT and sets. Will even one of them fold?

I think the answer is no to both, so we're best off checking back and hoping we're against a busted draw. Is there a chance he folds JJ? Maybe, but that actually turns this into a really thin bluff since he simply has no worse calling hands in his range. Do you really think he'll bluff-catch us two streets with AK/AQ figuring that we missed our draw? Probably not on this board.
Hey Jared,

In this spot, giving creedence to our minimal info, I am not certain we need concern ourselves with sets or JT. Those are not likely 3betting hands of a UTG raiser for a tight range...Flat hands possibly, but not 3betting hands. If we are looking at our info as MINIMAL, then you are going to have to include those at least some of the time of course, in case we are wrong about him being "snug".

To be honest, I am not highly crediting sets here though, because of the action pattern (villain slowed on the turn, when draws increased slightly, making 56 an oesd rather an a gut). JT is a possibility though if we are un-sure of our read info, esp JTs.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 04:51 AM..
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 06:05 PM
(#8)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
So I don't think we can just rule out AA/KK/QQ/JJ, in particular QQ and JJ which he's also worried about bigger pocket pairs. If he had AK it's very likely he just check-folds to your turn bet, so when he calls, I'm really not liking my hand any more. Even if he does have AK (maybe with the flush draw), he's never calling with worse hands than TT on the river, so there's no more value to be extracted imo... like mtn said 2 streets has got to be the max we can get from worse in the hands of a snug player. So I would check it down and hope I win, but tbh I'll be pleasantly surprised if I do.

The other part I want to address is the question how do you proceed if you're sure you've got the best hand. Well if we're certain we have the best hand then we should always value bet something, even if it's just a token (smaller) value bet. Even if it seems like the villain can't ever call, if we can't be beat then there's no downside to the bet and all upside since sometimes villains make mistakes. (In your hand however my confidence in our holding goes down when the villain calls our turn bet).

Dave
Thanks guys, your comments are greatly appreciated as always.

@TheLangolier The reason I felt our hand was good in this spot is that the opp had folded on either the turn or river on 3/4 occasions after taking a similar line. This info I did not include in my original post. But apart from that the opp was generally playing tight and even trappy cos once he flats 3x OR w/ A,A in position and flats K,K,x flop. Then checks the turn w/ Aces full and bets the river.

If we can't rule out the premium pocket pairs even though the oop checks the turn so then our bet on the turn is wrong, right?

@JDean Yes I would have to agree with you eliminate the possibility of opp holding J,10 or 7,7-9,9. Given the way the play had been so far I would expect the opp to flat with those holdings rather than 3bet pre-flop.

Cheers.
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 06:46 PM
(#9)
darkmajik365's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 191
What was the end result of the hand?
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 08:00 PM
(#10)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post
Thanks guys, your comments are greatly appreciated as always.

@TheLangolier The reason I felt our hand was good in this spot is that the opp had folded on either the turn or river on 3/4 occasions after taking a similar line. This info I did not include in my original post. But apart from that the opp was generally playing tight and even trappy cos once he flats 3x OR w/ A,A in position and flats K,K,x flop. Then checks the turn w/ Aces full and bets the river.

Cheers.
all more reason to check here
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 08:13 PM
(#11)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
all more reason to check here
Thats what I did and tens were good. It would have been very thin value bet and you open yourself up to get checked raised in that spot.

Cheers
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 11:16 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,496
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post
If we can't rule out the premium pocket pairs even though the oop checks the turn so then our bet on the turn is wrong, right?
Actually I do still like betting the turn:

If he has the overpair, he'll call, but we can check down the river and only give him that 1 street of value. If we check the turn, he'll probably bet the river, and we still give him the same 1 street of value.

If he has AK, he will either make a bad turn call or fold it to a bet. But if he's folding it, he's unlikely to call a river bet either unless he sucks out on us. If he won't make a hero call on the river anyway after we check the turn, then it's better to just bet the turn and deny him the ability to realize his equity in this hand (a 6 outter).

Dave


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