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5 NL river mistake

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5 NL river mistake - Mon Jan 23, 2012, 04:02 PM
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Riekstis's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
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I want to know what you think about this play .
Thanks.
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 04:42 PM
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Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Rieksis,

What range of hands did you put him on. When he flatted the flop what hand are we giving him credit for, no cards came that really changes the strength of any holding he has compared to what we hold.

If we are ahead on the flop we are ahead on the river still.

With 2 Aces on flop I'm not sure i think kings are behind but after the flat i'm going to be racking my brains as to what hes calling with. Not sure i could have got away from my FH on the river.

Grade b


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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 04:54 PM
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etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
Well I can tell you how I would have played it.

First did you have any reads that the opponent might can with a weak hand like A6 off?

Pre Flop is fine

Post flop you bet and he calls and that is fine.

On the turn when you bet again and he calls once more you should start asking yourself if he might have called with an A.

River for me it is a check and maybe call if he bets small like 1/4 pot but if he bets more I am folding unless you saw him bluffing in weird spots. Though your bet made it even more costly to get to a showdown.

Eti
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 05:03 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Riekstis View Post



I want to know what you think about this play .
Thanks.
Hiya Reikstis.

Pre Flop = fine. KK is plenty strong to raise oop.

Flop, this is where we get to be more read dependant. the board is paired on the A, so that means it is less likely that the either villain still in on the flop will hold an A, but BECAUSE A hands tend to make up a lot of the calling range of opp's with position on you, you cannot consider this a "dry" flop as you could if it had come J77.

In most spots, I do not really mind your lead, as long as you think the button will flat it with a J at least some of the time; you want to bet KK for value vs someone who may call with a J, but even a flat of your bet defines your KK better than a check/call line would.

In this spot though, you have no real "need" to lead out with the low SPR created going to the flop vs the effective stack. Depending upon how you range the short stack (you give no info), you really should be ready to play him for stacks if he has a good bit of non-Ace hands in his EP raise calling range. As this normally looks like a decent bluff spot for a short stack to represent an A, you can check for relative position and see what that big stack will do without putting any money in at all.

Example:

- If the short stack bets or shoves, and the BTN folds, depending on the short stack's range and play tendencies, you can call or fold cheaply.

- If the short stack bets, and the BTN raises, you can reasonably assume at least 1 of them has an A and fold.

- If the short stack bets, and the BTN flats, again, one of them probably has an A, and you can find a fold in a SMALL-ish pot, without adding to a big potential loss.

You did lead though...

Your lead for 50c (about 50% of the pot) serves to fold out the short stack, and the BTN flats.

To me, a flat of a standard lead like this is pretty dangerous, as that is something a J or an A (or AJ) might do on this depth of money; a J might do it to peel and see if you really have the A, and an A would do it to see if you will keep building the pot. This is largely why I would prefer to try inducing the short stack to bet by checking...our lead does not really tell us anything if the short stack folds.

Since you did lead though, I think a flat is worrisome enough versus most standard ranges that you have to think about going into "pot control" mode, and checking the turn. If the BTN has shown extremely "bluff" tendencies, and will fire strongly on the turn behind a check by you, then the check on the turn IS "risky" as you may fold the best hand. But in my opinion, I'd rather fold the best hand than lose a BIG chunk of my money trying to make a "hero call" in a pot my aggression made overly large.

The turn comes and the villain flats you lead of around half pot again. Now you REALLY have to be asking yourself "wtf!"...

- If he really letting you get that deeply into his stack holding just a J? (this needs more read info that you give)

- Is he really someone who will "float" 2 streets on an AA flop versus an EP raiser who is quite likely to have an A in his hand a lot of the time? (again, read dependant)

- What can you BEAT that can call 2 barrels of standard value bet sizes?

...not a lot.

All that would signal to me to definately slow down on the river.

River comes, and it is the third A. This LOOKS like a good card, because it tells you the villain is less likely to have an A in his hand, but it does NOT make an A "impossible". If we go back to ranging on the turn, we see his likely range for calling 2 barrels as:

- JJ (Js full of As),
- a hand with an A in it, especially AJ,
- QQ (MAYBE, if he is the type to call you down a lot)
- bluffs, waiting to fire hard if you slow down.

The fact you raised in EP puts an A in your hand a lot of the time, so QQ, and calling 2 barrels to bluff, really must be down graded in my opinion.

Since we are ahead of JJ now, but crushed by any A, I would favor a check on the river. Our hand DOES have value at showdown, so we can call some bet sizes, but big bets, or big raises are really going to put us in a trick bag.

Leading out on the river and seeing the raise as this one played out is exactly what I mean:

- If the guy is "bluffy", you are stuck now calling off most all your remaining stack when he raises; he will show up with quads a good part of the time, but sometimes he won't..

- If the guy is tight, then the pot is too big after a river bet by you to love folding; again you are stuck calling off most your stack, and he will likely show up with quads even more often.

...

So all together Reikstis, this hand strikes me as one where you had a bit of a failing in ranging, and accounting for the fact your raised EP made it MORE LIKELY you were facing an A here. By continuing an aggro line with KK, you took a small pot and turned it into a big one on a threatening board texture. When the river looked good for you, the large pot that was created earlier caused you to over value a hand that SHOULD win far more often than not...Aces full of Kings.

The problem is that hold 'em hand values are not absolute things, and are totally relative to the possible nut hand on the board. When you had every indication to think that the nut hand COULD be here, putting your full stack in this deep on 2nd nut can be very costly in the long run.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 05:49 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 10:37 AM
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Riekstis's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 2
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TNX for your time ..
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 04:50 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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No problem


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