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Being gready...

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Being gready... - Mon Jan 23, 2012, 04:23 PM
(#1)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
This hand I had not reads on anyone. Post flop and on the turn the reads I had was that someone was on a probable set. Did I play it well on the whole as I tried and managed to obtain the most of it.



Regards
Etienne
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 11:27 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello Etienne,

Pre flop, I like your raise with AK on this depth of money after a small raise in front.
By doing this you set up a beneficial SPR (even with a single caller) to make commitment easy on any top/top hit, but your raise is not so large you cannot play "fit or fold".

On the flop though, I am not sure I like that call. It increases your investment in the pot to about $1.25, and with multiple callers of a raise AND 3bet, you really cannot be certain if an A or K hit will not give someone else 2 pair+. That means you are drawing at just a gut shot, in a now bloated pot.

With 4 outs you have about an 8.5% chance to spike a straight on the turn. That means you need to receive 10.7 to 1 pay off on 80c to call ($8.56). The pot has $3.45, but your stack only has $3.50 more, so to get the right implied odds price you'd need BOTH villains who have called the 80c to call the REST of your stack if a J comes and puts 3 running cards to a straight on the board. That's is a bit far fetched to really expect without reads of looseness Etienne. You just do not have the odds to risk an additional 80c on your 4 clean outs...

When you do stay, and you do hit your gut shot for the broadway straight, the only concern you have is getting the most money in as possible; that's the easy part. The hard part is recognizing that you are drawing WAY THIN on the flop, and let the hand go before you boost your investment more than is reasonable.

In my opinion, you really got lucky here Etienne, and far more often than not, without reads you are going to be seeing an opponent stacking your chips if you make this play.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 11:43 PM..
 

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