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Nut flush draw w/ 2 overs on the flop Vs LAG

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Nut flush draw w/ 2 overs on the flop Vs LAG - Mon Jan 23, 2012, 05:24 PM
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deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! guys, I have a little bit history with the opp who is a LAG. I think this was the 4th orbit in a row that he raised my bb. So I decided to 3bet for two reasons, firstly to gauge the strength of his holding and secondly value raise to build the pot in position.



I felt there were only two options there either shove or fold. I don't think the fold would be bad option either as our bet on the flop hasn't taken us beyond the commitment point yet. However given that the oop is a LAG I thought if he had JJ+ I would have heard it pre-flop so our two overs might be clean, giving us 13 outs to improve on 2 streets.

So taking all this into consideration and given that we have two overs w/ nut flush draw, was it the right move to shove on the flop?

Cheers
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 06:01 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post
Hi! guys, I have a little bit history with the opp who is a LAG. I think this was the 4th orbit in a row that he raised my bb. So I decided to 3bet for two reasons, firstly to gauge the strength of his holding and secondly value raise to build the pot in position.



I felt there were only two options there either shove or fold. I don't think the fold would be bad option either as our bet on the flop hasn't taken us beyond the commitment point yet. However given that the oop is a LAG I thought if he had JJ+ I would have heard it pre-flop so our two overs might be clean, giving us 13 outs to improve on 2 streets.

So taking all this into consideration and given that we have two overs w/ nut flush draw, was it the right move to shove on the flop?

Cheers
Hi dedeyez.

Versus a LAG player, in a blind on blind battle, I like your pre flop 3bet. AJs will tend to be better than most LAG ranges in these spots.

When he checks to you, I also like the aggressive action with the nut flush draw and 2 overs. Again, a LAG may have connected here in some what, and that means if you do not hit you are BEHIND at showdown, so by acting aggressively you could get "better" hands to fold. if his laggy ways will entail a call with 1 pair hit on the flop, you have decent equity versus that too, and are a math favorite.

If his C/R range consists of only hands that contain 2 pair+, your bet has certainly created pot odds to 3bet jam your nut flush draw and around 30 to 35% equity. I would not normally suggest using a pot that YOUR bet bloated as "reason" to jam, but when your bet is made in the expectation that you have an equity edge then the money form that bet is no longer "your's"; it IS part of the pot, and must be factored into to your pot odds.

Since this guy is a LAG, his range is far wider than normal. Let's take a look at what we can see about his C/R on the flop...

Worst case for us is a set, with villain holding 3s especially. That gives us about 25.5% equity, and prices us off a jam.

We have right around 34.2% vs the 2 pair combos, and that means we need a bit under 2 to 1 to jam; Getting just over 2.5 to 1 if we jam and he calls means we easily have that.

Accounting for just board over pairs (TT+), we have around 46.3% equity combined, and are still getting the right price to jam.

Versus any single pair 9, T9 and under, we have about 52.3% equity, and are a math favorite. Including the J9+ hands, we still have about 51.4%.

With only 3 hands we need to really "fear", this does look like a good spot to jam and stand, even if the C/R means we do have to lend a bit more weight than normal to possible sets. All we really need with the price his C/R lays us to jam is about 28.5% equity to break even, and with only sets denying that to us, and with sets being a small part of the total possible range...it is go time.

The main thing dedeyez, is that you not get "blinded" by the fact you have 2 overs to "justify" your shove: a lot of times 2 overs won't be the important factor. You have to look at the times 2 overs are good, AND the times they are not, and weigh your equity versus the price the pot is laying you.

This was a good spot, but versus a tighter range, where sets are more readily present for this level of aggression, you may not be getting a good enough spot to bet this big on the flop and CREATE those pot odds.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 23, 2012 at 06:23 PM..
 

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