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A9s Facing AI HU

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A9s Facing AI HU - Mon Jan 23, 2012, 07:52 PM
(#1)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Villain got here by winning two big pots: with an A3 BTN he open/shoved 6BB; and, 3-betting AI (13BB) with KT over a BTN ‘min raise steal’. Otherwise, he seemed to play fit or fold post-flop. I only have 117 hands of data: VPIP 36; 8 PFR; AF 1; AG 9%. I always refer to HEM stats, to gain an insight as to how the villain may play HU. At this point I feel the villain is a risk taker, and may over value his hands PF.

Starting HU, we are even in chips, and the blinds are 50/100. The villain has already shoved twice during HU play. About the 10th hand of HU, I’m facing an AI for the tourney; it seems I have a coin flip. If villain has a pair lower than J’s, I’m slightly ahead; if villain holds Qx, I’m a slight ‘dog’. There are other holdings villain might have, from sets, slow played premium hands, flush draws (with or w/o a pair), to ‘air’, but combinatorically, they all wash out (equity wise). I had to Poker Stove the previous hands to get the equity: I’m behind sets, 75/25, but ahead of flush draws, 80/20. The blinds are going up NEXT hand, if I fold, I will only have 13BB's (compared to villains 17BB's).

Should I call? Click right controller button on replayer, to update hand status.
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 09:14 PM
(#2)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
for the tournament win it's a call for me

it's gambling time
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 09:26 PM
(#3)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
A9S heads up is very strong, I call all day long
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 09:26 PM
(#4)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Its probably close to 50/50 for me.
If you think you can out play him, I would fold.
Or if he is a really good player, Call and you have close to a 50% chance to win.
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 11:50 PM
(#5)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
You have 9 outs to a nut flush, and your ace is probably good if it hits for 3 more, I think this is a call. I don't usually like calling an all in without a made hand, but heads up in this situation I think I would go for it.

13 BB vs 17 BB isn't really a big deficit to overcome if you don't make your hand. I would have probably shoved pre-flop to put pressure on your opponent

 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 01:53 AM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi Spadez,

Would he ever play 22 66 or QQ like that preflop heads-up? You're against worse flush draws and pair+flush draws sooooooo often.

Also, if he had a set or top pair I don't expect him to just shove here. Too likely to blow you off your hand. Raise to charge draws, sure, but a 4x pot jam?

I think his range consists mostly of K-high flush draws, gutshot-flush draws like , and pair + flush draws like with the occasional big value hand. Considering we're wayyyyy ahead of the weaker flush draws (80% against the pure flush draws, 70% against the flush+gutshots) and about 47% against the 6x of hearts hands.

Assuming he can have any set, or any big draw (any flush draw really) we have, I'll say about 60% equity. If we add in the big pairs, we still have about 54%. I left out a lot of wacky hands but he could totally have like too as well as maybe some top pair hands or like AJ.

I think we often have the best hand here, and when we don't we have a ton of outs (worst case only 8 outs against 66). That makes this look like a pretty easy call.

I hope you called


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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I agree, this villain would have shoved pair PF - Tue Jan 24, 2012, 07:59 PM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Hi Spadez,

Would he ever play 22 66 or QQ like that preflop heads-up? You're against worse flush draws and pair+flush draws sooooooo often.

Also, if he had a set or top pair I don't expect him to just shove here. Too likely to blow you off your hand. Raise to charge draws, sure, but a 4x pot jam?

I think his range consists mostly of K-high flush draws, gutshot-flush draws like , and pair + flush draws like with the occasional big value hand. Considering we're wayyyyy ahead of the weaker flush draws (80% against the pure flush draws, 70% against the flush+gutshots) and about 47% against the 6x of hearts hands.

Assuming he can have any set, or any big draw (any flush draw really) we have, I'll say about 60% equity. If we add in the big pairs, we still have about 54%. I left out a lot of wacky hands but he could totally have like too as well as maybe some top pair hands or like AJ.

I think we often have the best hand here, and when we don't we have a ton of outs (worst case only 8 outs against 66). That makes this look like a pretty easy call.

I hope you called
Yes, I agree that this villain would have jammed any pair PF, (so were not facing a set). I feel I’m a flip in this scenario, and with the blinds going up next hand, made it an even easier call.

Not sure what I would have done if we were deeper stacked (say 40ish each), and he had played the last 3 out of 10 hands with a shove (once pre, twice post). Also not sure what I would have done if I was sitting on , and the blinds were NOT going up (I’d have a 23BB stack).

Just wanted to get some feedback, to help my game.

Thanks everyone!

Conclusion of hand:
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 06:47 PM
(#8)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
I still think if you had any reads on this player that he is willing to stack off with middle pair,
Some consideration has to be given to folding.
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 07:17 PM
(#9)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
Yes, I agree that this villain would have jammed any pair PF, (so were not facing a set). I feel I’m a flip in this scenario, and with the blinds going up next hand, made it an even easier call.
Then you're better than a flip against his range. And you're on the strong side of a coinflip against his actual hand. And with all that dead money in there this is super +EV.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
I still think if you had any reads on this player that he is willing to stack off with middle pair,
Some consideration has to be given to folding.
Actually, this adds even more hands that you're flipping (as the slight favorite) with balancing out the times you're crushed by 222. This should make it an even easier call! Especially with all that dead money in the pot.

Plus we can already have the best hand here a lot of the time. More than half of the time we win the tournament on this hand (against his range, not just his specific hand). A bit less than half we lose it.


4 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by oriholic; Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 07:27 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 07:52 PM
(#10)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Do we want to be flipping, against a bad player ?
If we wait we could have a chance to get our money in when we are dominating.
I am not saying I would fold here every time, but against a player like this i would consider it.
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 08:20 PM
(#11)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Yes we do. We have a HUGE equity edge! And we're still better than flipping! We're taking what I expect to be a 60/40 against his range, while only ~43% of the chips are his immediate contribution!

If I thought we were only 50/50 against his range I would STILL take this edge! If I thought we were like 45/55 then I would consider a fold. Here I think we're a 55/45 favorite minimum! And I'm not folding a 10% edge with 18% of the pot being dead money ever.

Say we're 50/50. Half the time we add 3350 to our stack, half the time we lose 2500.

So our EV of this call would look like .5(3350)-.5(2500)=+425 chips or a bit over 4 BBs in our favor!


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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