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overplayed the set?

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overplayed the set? - Tue Jan 24, 2012, 01:17 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Hand 12 in a 27man...



Preflop, I'm calling to hiit a set. The set comes, but with 3 diamonds. I'm not folding there to one bet, so I'm calling the flop, even when it gets raised. The Landgrafin bet means squat since it's a minbet of 30 into 195. The raise could mean a flush, a flush draw, or a top pair trying to get rid of the draw. There's also some straight draws that might have limped preflop (QJ, AJ, AQ), so I figure I'm ahead of anything but the made flush .

Turn is a blank, it gets checked around, and the river is another blank. This time, the MP guy leads into two other people. Could be bluffing, could still be drawing, could have the flush. At this point I put him on a high pair, thinking that would be good - maybe JJ+, or AK - maybe some crazy 2 pair. Alas, he did flop it.

So here's the question - where did I go wrong? I like the preflop call. Maybe I should have raised to get rid of some people, we're in a 5-way pot now, but still. If I hit the set, that's just more people to put money into the pot.

On the flop, I hit my set. Should I have folded to the reraise here? I didn't since I didn't believe nemani here - the fact he folded the riverbet makes me think my read was right. My read on Landgrafin's bet was correct as well as he folded to the flop-raise. Looking back, I think I would make the flatcall on the flop again. I have 7 live outs on the flop to my full house, with an additional three if the turn doesn't pair the board.

Turn: the flop-raiser checks, I check behind. If he had the flush he would have bet I think. I generally don't put much trappy play into people at these stakes ($1.50 buyin). Kot_koto checks behind, making me think the same about him.

River - I pondered. Would he bet AK or QQ there? Probably, as following the same train of thought I did, neither me nor nemani would be holding a flush. I didn't think he was bluffing a missed draw here, but the only thing beating me would be KK, TT, 66, 88. The latter two he could be holding, but I think he would have reraised preflop with the kings or tens. Bad train of thought?

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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 02:13 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Played it perfectly imo.

Although I don't think QQ is betting the river. I think top/top, two pair, sets, and flushes (maybe AA) bet here. I actually think you're probably behind vs. the river bet (or very close to it), but you're getting odds to call that particular barrel, since you only need to be right ~30% of the time for it to be profitable. The key point is that I don't think you would have ever been called by worse had you raised, but your hand was too strong to just fold to a few medium-sized bets. I think you did great.
 
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Think about your 'turn' option on a drawy board - Tue Jan 24, 2012, 03:51 PM
(#3)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ov3rsight View Post
Hand 12 in a 27man...
Turn: the flop-raiser checks, I check behind. If he had the flush he would have bet I think. I generally don't put much trappy play into people at these stakes ($1.50 buyin). Kot_koto checks behind, making me think the same about him.
I like to see an in depth post! Problem is that there are no reads - not that it matters for this hand.

Your play and reasoning was spot on up until the 'turn'; at this point, I don't let any draws play for free, and there's a good chance I can take this 'big' pot down, right now; also, It may be the last time I can make any money with my set. From the action prior to my turn option, the only possible threat is that the OOP villain is trapping with a 'nut' flush. There are so many combinations of hands out there, the odds are extremely likely that I'm ahead right now.

I shove on the turn - oops, the OOP villain has the only hand that may have played this way. Set up hands (coolers) happen, but you still have a 22% chance of taking this hand down on the river.
.
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 04:13 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
There are so many combinations of hands out there, the odds are extremely likely that I'm ahead right now.
I would agree if we were HU, but this is a 6-way pot, and you're forgetting oversets. If we run into a flush or overset here, it's hardly a cooler, because lots of combinations of hands actually becomes pretty small when it's divided by five villains and when we're not even blocking diamonds by holding one ourself.

Flopping sets is great, but I think that if you always go into max value mode when you do flop one, you put yourself in spots that are very marginal or very -EV without realizing it, because you're not critically analysing the EV of the situation. Here, I think we should be calling until the board pairs or a diamond hits. If we see a board pair, get it in. If we see a diamond, fold. If neither occurs, pot-control and be very vigilant; this is a very tricky spot to manoeuvre.
 
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My post was for Turn action - not Flop action - Tue Jan 24, 2012, 05:01 PM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I would agree if we were HU, but this is a 6-way pot, and you're forgetting oversets. If we run into a flush or overset here, it's hardly a cooler, because lots of combinations of hands actually becomes pretty small when it's divided by five villains and when we're not even blocking diamonds by holding one ourself.
You read the post wrong - This is the Turn action!

Hand was checked to us in a 3-way pot. Considering the action up to this point, I would shove the Turn.
.
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 05:56 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Ov3rsight and everyone!

I'd actually try a bit different line than any of you suggested. Here's the way that I'd have gone about this hand.

Preflop: I absolutely have no problem limping into a hand like this with a low pocket pair. It's a perfect situation to setmine.

Flop: Yes, I hit bottom set, but three diamonds on the board makes this a very tough spot. Three checks, then a min bet. The min bet looks like a weak blocking type bet that someone might use if they're trying to draw to a single diamond. The CO then raises to 180 (80% of the previous pot). This to me, is most likely going to be a big K or even K10 or a higher set. It's a bet that someone is making to try and price out a flush draw.
With a set here, instead of calling or folding here, I'm 3-betting and I'm sizing the 3-bet of a pot sized bet, 405.
If I'm called, then I wouldn't make another bet without hitting a full house. It'll most likely get checked to me on the turn, so I'd check behind and see the river for free.
If I'm shoved on, then I'd have to go with whatever read I had on the opp and what their stack size is. If either of the two shorter stacks shove, I'm instantly calling, as even if they have the flush, I'd have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river. If a larger stack shoves, then even if I folded, I would still have a very playable stack left, since it's early in the tourney with small blinds.

As played, I'd have made a value bet on the turn, as I'd want to price out a single diamond. A single diamond would have 9 outs, so I would need to make a value bet of over 18%. I'd have bet about 1/3 of the pot, which is 250 chips..... looking at what I'd have done on the flop, it's a similar number of chips, but the opp wouldn't have seen the turn before putting the chips in.

On the river, after checking the turn and not seeing a 4th diamond, I'm calling their bet here, as a set does have showdown value here.

Hope this helps (or at least gets everyone thinking of a possible different way to play it) and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Pot committing flop bet, with players to act? - Tue Jan 24, 2012, 07:16 PM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi Ov3rsight and everyone!
Flop: Yes, I hit bottom set, but three diamonds on the board makes this a very tough spot. Three checks, then a min bet. The min bet looks like a weak blocking type bet that someone might use if they're trying to draw to a single diamond. The CO then raises to 180 (80% of the previous pot). This to me, is most likely going to be a big K or even K10 or a higher set. It's a bet that someone is making to try and price out a flush draw.
With a set here, instead of calling or folding here, I'm 3-betting and I'm sizing the 3-bet of a pot sized bet, 405.
If I'm called, then I wouldn't make another bet without hitting a full house. It'll most likely get checked to me on the turn, so I'd check behind and see the river for free.
If I'm shoved on, then I'd have to go with whatever read I had on the opp and what their stack size is. If either of the two shorter stacks shove, I'm instantly calling, as even if they have the flush, I'd have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river. If a larger stack shoves, then even if I folded, I would still have a very playable stack left, since it's early in the tourney with small blinds.
You're sitting in a very awkward position (relatively), and you have 5 players to act behind you. Your 3bet may get some possible draws to fold, but as soon as one player calls it, the other draws may feel they're priced in. As far as possibly folding to a 4bet (from the larger stack), because you still have a usable stack: You've just invested 40% of your stack (with a hand you want to get to SD), and now DON'T have a very playable stack, at the moment you are left with a 32BB stack, which will soon turn into a 13BB stack.

I really feel this line will get you into trouble more often than not. IMHO, a safer line is to just call (17% of your stack), and await further info.
.
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 08:29 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
You're sitting in a very awkward position (relatively), and you have 5 players to act behind you. Your 3bet may get some possible draws to fold, but as soon as one player calls it, the other draws may feel they're priced in. As far as possibly folding to a 4bet (from the larger stack), because you still have a usable stack: You've just invested 40% of your stack (with a hand you want to get to SD), and now DON'T have a very playable stack, at the moment you are left with a 32BB stack, which will soon turn into a 13BB stack.

I really feel this line will get you into trouble more often than not. IMHO, a safer line is to just call (17% of your stack), and await further info.
.
Hi King_spadez!

Either way, I'm going to be in an awkward position here, but I'd want to try and thin the field some and the smaller bet by the initial raiser here might be small enough to have the others look at it as they're priced in, especially since it won't cost them much of their stack.

By betting 405, I'd be leaving myself a stack of 660 chips at a blind level of 15/30, which is 22BB if I were to fold to a 4-bet shove. 22BB gives me plenty of chips and time to put them to good use. Even after the blinds go up, it would still leave me with a pretty good steal/resteal stack.

That's another thing that playing in the league games is good for... learning how to grind on a short stack and to turn it into a larger one.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 08:56 PM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
You read the post wrong - This is the Turn action!

Hand was checked to us in a 3-way pot. Considering the action up to this point, I would shove the Turn.
.
I'm looking to check every street here in a 6-way pot, or probably value bet the river if action is round-checked on the flop and turn. Action was raised on the flop, so the presumption that we can raise this profitably at any point is incorrect imo.

I should add that without looking at the flop, turn, and river action, with only the info that I flopped bottom set, 6-way on a 3-flush board, I can predict that I'm folding my set at some point most of the time. I want to show down this hand for as cheap as possible or not at all.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 09:00 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 10:09 AM
(#10)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Checking all the way is something I wouldn't like. 6-way, there's about a 99% chance someone's going to outdraw your set. I'd rather bet and limit the field and increase my chances.
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 11:02 AM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi all!

I'd like to chime in here if I may...

Looking through this hand, there really is no 'right or wrong" way to play this one, only shades of grey.

First we have to look at our pre flop decision...

To set mine, you really need to know that you will tend to get paid off well if you hit, and in an MTT setting you also need to know that it will be CHEAP to set mine. The "cheap-ness" of a set mine in an MTT situation is incredibly important, moreso than in a cash game, because your equity in the tournament overall is effected greatly by your stack size; lose a lot of "cheap" set mines and your stack may be too depleted to recover.

With 36.5BB in his start stack, the HERO is going to feel that a limp-along of 1BB is cheap, right? But is it?

It is true 1BB is really an amount we can afford to FOLD if we miss, but if you HIT and there are strong draw threats (or even strong made hand threats as on the flop we saw), is it going to be cheap to continue in the face of threats?

There are "inflection points" based on your stack size in MTT play that should effect your decision processes as to what TYPES of hands you play, and how you play them. These inflection points are generally based on the cost to your stack of a STANDARD betting line (standard = 3bb pre flop raise, half pot C bet, 1/2 pot 2nd barrel), and how you approach a COMMITMENT POINT by following along with a "standard line" (either as the lead bettor, or a caller).

EXAMPLE:

Pre flop here, you KNOW this pot will contain at least 5.5BB if you limp along, and quite often will contain 6BB if the SB calls (as he probably will far more often than not at a loose/passive table). Your cost = 1BB.

Flop comes, and you know that a standard bet will be AT LEAST 3BB, and because the pot is still multi-way, it probably should be at least 3/4ths to full pot. That means you should suspect that if you hit your set, you are going to see SOMEONE firing around 4BB at least. Your cost now will have moved up to 5BB, or about 14% of your stack; commitment is fast approaching!

If you call, and it gets HU, the pot will have grown to at least 15BB, and you know that you can expect around an 8BB bet (or that YOU will be making at least an 8BB bet). Your cost now is 13BB, or 35% of your start stack, and BAM...you are committed.

See?

What this means is...

When you drop to under 40 or 50BB, you really cannot "afford" to play passively any longer, nor play multi-way pots in MTTs, as the "standard" betting line cost will tend to move you too quickly to a commitment point. This means you should be looking to enter pots more AGGRESSIVELY, and/or be ready to play the pots you do enter (such as these set mining spots in position) more aggressively. In short, a 36.5BB stack size is really not a good one to set mine any longer UNLESS you intend to commit to a flopped set quite early.

When we see an all diamond flop, do we LOVE committing ourselves in the face of a ton of people who may have flopped a flush? THIS is where the "shades of grey" come in...

In a cash game, I will tell you now, I am NEVER folding this set on the flop, and I am playing it quite like the HERO played it here depending on opponent reads, or I am moving at the pot with early aggression while I still have about 30% total chance to draw out on a flush (again, depending on opponent reads).

In an MTT though, especially one this early on when the chips I might win do not ensure me a "lock" on a cash spot, but a loss of most or all my chips DOES ensure a cash will be quite hard (or impossible) to achieve, there CAN be reason for folding either on the turn, or on the flop even. There can also be reason for getting all your chips in early too, when you have a good chance of getting called lite by draws or top pair hands, and if you are behind you have max chance to draw out a FH. There can even be reason to play it as a drawing hand, much as the hero seems to do here, and take the consequences of stack loss if you were out flopped and do not hit your FH draw.

I think the thing to think about here really is the fact that by the river there will only be about 15% to 17% of ALL BOARDS that do not put a possible made straight or made flush into play. The playability of a set will largely be determined by the FLOP TEXTURE you see, and seeing a pot with a large multi-way field on a threatening texture is very quickly going to turn a "cheap" 1BB set mine on a 36.5BB stack, into one that could get quite expensive.

Yes, "threatening textures" such as this will be quite rare, so I am not suggesting you NEVER set mine in this spot on a 36.5BB stack, but I really think that before you immediately set mine a small pp on this size stack, you really should be thinking ahead to the possible consequences to your stack if/when your set may not be ENOUGH to win you the pot.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 11:40 AM..
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 11:26 AM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi All,

It seems to me we may be over thinking this situation a bit too much. I think it's pretty near impossible to overplay a set in a low spr scenario in hold'em with only 3 diamonds on the board.

In fact I think we underplayed our set. I would have gotten broke here on the flop personally.

Dave


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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 12:23 PM
(#13)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi All,

It seems to me we may be over thinking this situation a bit too much. I think it's pretty near impossible to overplay a set in a low spr scenario in hold'em with only 3 diamonds on the board.

In fact I think we underplayed our set. I would have gotten broke here on the flop personally.

Dave
Me too most likely.
I got what I played for, so I am getting em in when I have max chance of being ahead and max chance to draw out if behind.

If you are not willing to play that aggro on a diamond flop, then you probably shouldn't have set mined on a stack that is 36.5BB.


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