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OESD – Fold or Call

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OESD – Fold or Call - Tue Jan 24, 2012, 01:24 PM
(#1)
Nimed's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4
Hi

I'm playing pretty TAGish (folding or raising) and I decided to flat call my suited connectors here.
The Button was a bit Tight Passive and the Blinds were more on the Loose Passive side. So I'm expecting a multiway pot and/or to get position.

The PF raiser was playing 22/17/AF:1.9 (200 hands), looks tight, no further reads.

Flop: Villain's Cbet% and TurnCbet% are 79 and 75 respectively. By process of elimination I don't see folding or raising as good options. I can call / float and see another card.

Turn: Villain's bet seemed to me as a value bet. 2nd-barrell % may not be very accurate (3/4) and I don't have enough River stats or reads.

Generally (assuming that this is a common situation with an average foe) should I go after the implied odds and call the Turn?

Thanks in advance.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 07:01 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nimed View Post
Hi

I'm playing pretty TAGish (folding or raising) and I decided to flat call my suited connectors here.
The Button was a bit Tight Passive and the Blinds were more on the Loose Passive side. So I'm expecting a multiway pot and/or to get position.

The PF raiser was playing 22/17/AF:1.9 (200 hands), looks tight, no further reads.

Flop: Villain's Cbet% and TurnCbet% are 79 and 75 respectively. By process of elimination I don't see folding or raising as good options. I can call / float and see another card.

Turn: Villain's bet seemed to me as a value bet. 2nd-barrell % may not be very accurate (3/4) and I don't have enough River stats or reads.

Generally (assuming that this is a common situation with an average foe) should I go after the implied odds and call the Turn?

Thanks in advance.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
Hi Nimed.

What % of the time will the villain pay you his entire stack on a lesser hand if you peel the river?

Going to the turn here your total implied odds are around 7.9 to 1 if the villain will put his entire stack in on a 3 straight card board. With 4 "clean outs" to the straight, and 4 outs (the 3d and c/8d and c) that you should discount somewhat (unless the villain NEVER has semi bluff sin his range; un-likely with a C-Bet and 2 barrel % that high), you have a 13% chance to spike (discounting diamond/club outs to .5 out each). This means you must expect to get 7.6 to 1 to break even. That equates to MOST this guy's stack...

If you call, the pot on the turn grows to about $6.

An alternate to flatting would be to move him all in, but I agree with you: that is VERY risky in only a $6 pot.

If the villain launches another 3/4ths pot bet, you are right around 1 pot size bet from getting him all in, so you MIGHT get the ability to put him all in if he has a hand to call or fire a 3rd barrel. The problem is that he will not have a hand to fire a 3rd barrel often enough to not make you SURE of getting him in. If he doesn't fire a 75% pot bet, you are quite un-likely to be able to get him all in, and you will not be anywhere near the right price.

So I think I lean in the direction you did, and let this go on the turn as well unless I had the potential to win as much as 12 or 13 to 1 at least.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 07:17 PM..
 

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