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Fold or Call

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Fold or Call - Tue Jan 24, 2012, 02:50 PM
(#1)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
This is the info I had on the player:

Every time he was on the SB he would bully me to 3xBB ( I guess he was playing by the book and trying to steal the BB). The hands that I saw him play to the end were A or K high with any card. Also he was about 25% VP$IP (no HUD, just know that he was playing just over 1 hand by orbit). When he had a good hand he would over bet the flop.

So here's the hand:




I didn't think that his bet after the flop was scary and the fact he wasn't aggressive with his bet, I put him on A or K with a matching flopped card.
After the turn, another small bet, so I 2.5x raise him and he calls (was my raise big enough?). So now I think he's got a diamond A or K and he's hoping to catch the flush. Then comes the river and this HUGE bet!!!!!!!

Do I Call or do I fold?

Thanks
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 03:12 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Not jamming the turn but jamming the river seems weird on his part. I'd never fold to the river shove in just about any game format; it's super hard to put the PFR in a heads-up pot on a flopped flush, which is the only hand category that beats you. Also, since it's really hard to put you on a flopped straight, I think your perceived range is significantly weaker than what you actually have, so you can easily call down and be looking at a naked ace, probably with a pair and a diamond like you said, although jamming the low end of a four-board straight is certainly ballsy. I guess pocket aces would make a ton of sense.

I think your turn raise could have been bigger to try and induce a shove since you really really really don't want to see a diamond on the river, and you'd want an easy call if he shoves and you have no diamond. Then again, a bigger raise would reduce his calling frequency and possibly lose value.

Curious to see what other have to say.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 03:20 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 04:52 PM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
i'd snap call that bet sand. the likelihood of any A or even a six makes your nut str8 an easy , easy call for me. the flopped flush, while possible, is very unlikey. far more likely a wheel, set. or even a 6 high.
if he's overdoing sb steals, his range is wide enough to make this an ez call for me.
12 to win 28 with you r read, call call call and twice on sunday. hope your inner nit didn't poke his ugly head up here. hey if he flopped his flush, nh
i also prolly woulda made my raise a tad more, to make gettin it in on the river a lil easier, but hey, that wasnt an issue since he did that for you.
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 06:00 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Sandtrap!

Interesting hand...

Given your read info, I say call the river...

Pre flop, I am not certain I really like your blind defense on a hand like 67o vs an aggro blind stealer. He is going to test you pretty strongly on a lot of flops to continue abusing your blinds, so you are un-likely to be able to withstand the pressure with any 1 pair hand you flop, and the draws you flop are not as likely to get a good price. At least being suited would have increased your chances of flopping a stronger draw, but any draw versus an aggro bettor is going to be dice-y.

But you did call to defend...

Going to the flop, the SPR was just under 13, which is a medium SPR...

FLOP:

You hit a pretty solid flop with the nut straight, but on an all diamond board. With the villain being such a frequent blind stealer, I am certainly not putting him immediately on a better hand.

I like your flop flat here a lot.

While a straight is a valid hand to stack off on on this depth of money, the board texture really does not favor it much. You could reasonably raise, but it might be hard to pull the trigger if this aggro guy fires a big bet over you immediately. So I think I really prefer your line to that, as a 4th diamond can conceivably allow you to muck a lot cheaper.

TURN:

Aggro villain keeps firing on what appears to be a blank. This is the spot I do like your raise, as at this point, with only 1 to come, I think I would be ready to get my stack in.

I am curious about why you selected your sizing...

With 2 large bullets I am really not concerned about the flush really, as in light of the fact you've given up your blinds lightly in prior hands, he has to have you marked as someone who is not calling bad against a flush a lot of times.

If we range him, he could be betting strong to deny odds to a flush with a lesser straight, a set, 2 pairs, or an over pair (especially one with a strong D), and any of these are probably willing to call more than your bet.

If I think this aggro guy is going to call a bigger bet with less that your straight, I think I would make it around $7.50 to go, and really clarify the river decision while I am most certain I am still ahead. Afterall, in case he is just diamond drawing, the difference could be around $1 that we DON'T get out of him if he check/folds the river on another blank.

RIVER:

This really feels like a clear call...

Any Ad has "gotten there" to make a wheel, and can easily see you on just 2 pair or a set. He could still be betting an over pair big in a hopeless attempt to fold you off your hand because of the scare cards. He could believe you are too tight to ever call pre flop with any straight or flush in your range.

Or he could have the flush.

The balance of what he might have that we beat pretty clearly out weighs what might beat us.
We also have every reason to believe this guy is aggro enough to pull the trigger on a big river bluff, because we have folded before; the stacks are still quite large afterall. If he has the flush, so be it.

I am calling this all day long on the info we have.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 25, 2012 at 12:30 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 07:04 PM
(#5)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Thanks JD,

The size bet of 2.5 times his bet after the turn was to entice him to go all in. Probably betting higher would of made him fold. His bet after the river kind of told me, I've missed my flush, but I still have a straight 1-5, so I called.

This is how it turned out



I was very happy of my read on the player, but he wasn't so happy, as I heard him tell me off for the next 10 hands...LOL

Again, thx JD
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 07:05 PM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Hi all,

I have a question that this hand exemplifies.

Is calling a steal raise defending? My default in these situations is usually to 3-bet or fold although I might call an aggressive stealer with a power pair to let them barrel their way to oblivion.

Your thoughts please?


Joe
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 07:23 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Hi all,

I have a question that this hand exemplifies.

Is calling a steal raise defending? My default in these situations is usually to 3-bet or fold although I might call an aggressive stealer with a power pair to let them barrel their way to oblivion.

Your thoughts please?


Joe
It can be if you intend to try to act aggro after the flop and represent a stronger hand than you hold Joe. To be honest though, I tend to agree with the implications of your question...

67 is the type of hand that will tend to flop a little bit of value, but when facing an opponent likely to test you strongly, it will be quite hard to follow through. That is why I started my write up as I did...

Great point.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 07:28 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 07:29 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hey everyone!

I think I might have tried something else here if I were playing it. Please tell me what you think on it, as I want to be able to learn from this hand too.

The way the hand played out, I also like the call on the river. An aggro from the SB here could have easily missed a flush draw and have a hand much worse than a striaght.

If it were me in the hand, I'd have raised the flop instead of the turn. When the opp bets $1.07 into a pot that would be $3.64 if I call (29%) they are basically making a bet that would price in a flush draw, as a flush draw with 9 outs has 36% equity. I'd have made a pot sized raise to be able to price out a flush draw. If I can get the opps % into the pot on the flop higher than 36%, then I'm making it -EV for them to call to try and draw at it.

I'd have followed the same line on the turn... make sure the opp puts in more than 18% on the turn... to price out a flush draw (or a little higher still, to price out a combo draw).

Obviously, if a 4th diamond hits or a board pair leaving a full house out there, I'd have folded to a large raise, as the opp could easily have me beat.

I also totally understand about calling here lets a player muck cheaper if the board hits, but wouldn't we want to make sure that drawing is -EV for the opp on both streets... or have I been looking at this situation incorrectly?

John


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 08:57 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post

If it were me in the hand, I'd have raised the flop instead of the turn. When the opp bets $1.07 into a pot that would be $3.64 if I call (29%) they are basically making a bet that would price in a flush draw, as a flush draw with 9 outs has 36% equity. I'd have made a pot sized raise to be able to price out a flush draw. If I can get the opps % into the pot on the flop higher than 36%, then I'm making it -EV for them to call to try and draw at it.

I'd have followed the same line on the turn... make sure the opp puts in more than 18% on the turn... to price out a flush draw (or a little higher still, to price out a combo draw).

Obviously, if a 4th diamond hits or a board pair leaving a full house out there, I'd have folded to a large raise, as the opp could easily have me beat.

I also totally understand about calling here lets a player muck cheaper if the board hits, but wouldn't we want to make sure that drawing is -EV for the opp on both streets... or have I been looking at this situation incorrectly?

John
Hi John.

Your thought about leading the flop is fine if you think the villain will NEVER have a flush, and you NEVER fold to a 4th diamond in my opinion.

To me though, the threat of a flush possibly being there is a bit too strong to want to play for stacks without at least 1 more street of info...and this guy strikes me as the type who might try a huge semi bluff if we raise immediately.

As for flatting laying the villain odds to draw, that simply isn't true. While his bet does leave room to draw to 1 diamond if he is sure to see BOTH streets (turn and river) for that single flop bet, with Sand having position he does not have that surety at all. This means he needs a bit over 4 to 1 odds to get a good price to spike the TURN, as that marks the point Sand gets to bet or raise again.

If Sand is NEVER folding to a 4th diamond, then a bet to build the pot immediately is fine in my opinion. But in order to leave room to fold to a highly theatening card, or to avoid a huge semi bluff bet we may find hard to call, I'd prefer to wait on a raise until the turn.

We can be pretty confident given the info we have on the villain that a flat of the flop bet will simply be like "chumming the waters"; this guy does NOT strike me as the type to fail to continue his aggression through the turn. That means by waiting to raise the turn we will see a much larger pot, one we can confidently raise with the intention of committing ourselves if it comes a blank, and if a diamond comes we can muck just as confidently only for a far lesser cost.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 24, 2012 at 09:30 PM..
 
Old
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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 08:58 PM
(#10)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
I also forgot to mention that twice I re-raised and he called and after the flop he would 3 bet, basically making me fold. That is why I took the secure road. This time I decided to call his 3 bet.

 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 10:50 AM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Sand,

I would call this every time. He is extremely unlikely to have a flush given how the hand played out, and you beat everything else. I would say his most likely value holdings are the naked Ad that is now a wheel, or some holding with a 6 like Kd6s.

If he actually had a flush, he'd be likely to bet larger on the flop per you read, and/or 3b your turn raise. Sure it's possible, but I expect we'll be good the large majority of the time here.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 
Old
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 10:59 AM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Just watched the result, he was actually bluffing figuring he could get you off of all 2 pair and set hands. Nice.

@ Joe: Calling in position vs. a constant steal raiser is certainly defending. You're keeping spr high, and have the positional advantage on someone who will often flop weak or air (due to their super wide range). Personally I like to mix up my flats and 3B's for defense in these spots, I think we can flat a decently wide range here. I always laugh when the guy on my right auto-raises his SB every time it folds to him because, presumably, he thinks that's good poker. If he wants to keep playing raised pots out of position vs. me, I'm happy to oblige him.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 

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