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Way too loose? Or good price?

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Way too loose? Or good price? - Wed Jan 25, 2012, 03:25 PM
(#1)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
I called because the raiser had been raising a bit too much and my hand had potential to stack him. Though someone behind reraised though the reraise was too small so I thought of AA as in this level people reraise but many times they do not reraise enough so I was priced in plus would have position.

Flop... the reraiser bets around 3/4 pot so for me he has mostly a premium. the initial raiser calls so or he has a draw like me or he has a very good hand like 2pair or set and is slowplaying... But the flop is good for my hand and again against 2players and in position I think I am priced in.

Turn... Gives me more outs but the guy I am putting on a premium shoves and the other guy calls!!! So I say that or they both have a pair or a set at this point. Against a set I am in bad shape and the price is giving me not so good odds with 1 is to 3. I thought about it and I called... Well the river was the best card possible and won a good pot but did I play it right or as I think it was a bit too loose.

About the reads I was glad they were right so I managed to put them in the right hands... Luckily he did not make a fullhouse.



Thanks in advance
Etienne
 
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Wed Jan 25, 2012, 06:05 PM
(#2)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Although super passive, I think you played it perfectly. You're priced in to call at every spot and raising is pointless as well as you know you're never getting a fold, and look to have around 11 outs or more. (with a pair, straight draw and flush draw in a 3-bet pot you're in pretty good shape against QQ-AA, and even in decent shape against JJ (your worst case scenario other than T9)). Even against two tens you have a ton of outs (any 9 or club). I like it. You're getting about 3 to 1 and your draw gets there often enough that I think you should call.

Against two ranges of [TT+ ] and [JJ+ +] which I think is pretty reasonable, you have about 29% equity, making this a very solid call. Nice hand.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 03:46 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
I called because the raiser had been raising a bit too much and my hand had potential to stack him. Though someone behind reraised though the reraise was too small so I thought of AA as in this level people reraise but many times they do not reraise enough so I was priced in plus would have position.

Flop... the reraiser bets around 3/4 pot so for me he has mostly a premium. the initial raiser calls so or he has a draw like me or he has a very good hand like 2pair or set and is slowplaying... But the flop is good for my hand and again against 2players and in position I think I am priced in.

Turn... Gives me more outs but the guy I am putting on a premium shoves and the other guy calls!!! So I say that or they both have a pair or a set at this point. Against a set I am in bad shape and the price is giving me not so good odds with 1 is to 3. I thought about it and I called... Well the river was the best card possible and won a good pot but did I play it right or as I think it was a bit too loose.

About the reads I was glad they were right so I managed to put them in the right hands... Luckily he did not make a fullhouse.

Thanks in advance
Etienne
Hi Etienne.

I'd like to break down you play by each comment you make if I may...

Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
I called because the raiser had been raising a bit too much and my hand had potential to stack him.
On the button, I really do not mind this thought line if it were me playing the hand. You do have position, and with a medium depth SPR going to the flop, the chance of you flopping either a strong value hand (2 pair+), or a very strong draw that you may well be able to play 'fast" versus a perceived loose range, can make for a good gamble in this spot. You have the added benefit of a loose raiser against whom a top pair 9 or 8 (rare, but possible) will be good enough to win the pot some of the time. I would prefer a bit more info on the opponent's range though, and on his post flop play patterns to really love it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
Though someone behind reraised though the reraise was too small so I thought of AA as in this level people reraise but many times they do not reraise enough so I was priced in plus would have position.
This is where things start to go a bit "off" for you though...

Yes, the raise was "small" (a min raise), but you were not calling the raise, you were OVER CALLING the intial raiser as well. Since the initial raiser had called the raise ahead of you, you know that you will see a very low SPR going to the flop if you also continue (Pot = $1.26, effective stack = $4.28, SPR = 3.4). This SPR does not really favor the one way OESD or Flush draws you are likeliest to flop with a hand like 89s, and the rarity of flopping value hands (2 pairs+, ~5.5%) you can believe are best on this action pattern does not really bode well for you.

You see Etienne, un-like set mining small pocket pairs that are cheap to fold if you miss, weak straight or flush draws may lead to expensive "chases" that never get there. That means to continue past the flop you'd really need a 2 pair+ hand, or a strong combination draw on this depth of money. Weaker drawing hands, the one way draws that are pretty common with hands like 89s (~20% of flops will see an oesd or flush draw for you), really prefer smaller pots with deeper stacks than you see being created here.

I am NOT saying "taking a shot" here to possibly see a strong draw on the flop for you is terrible, but I'd really prefer that my stack were LARGER, on the order of the same size as the intial raiser's $8.80, to really make me want to call to continue here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
Flop... the reraiser bets around 3/4 pot so for me he has mostly a premium. the initial raiser calls so or he has a draw like me or he has a very good hand like 2pair or set and is slowplaying... But the flop is good for my hand and again against 2players and in position I think I am priced in.
Are you priced in?
Is this REALLY a "strong draw"?

Per your read, you believe the 3bettor who leads 3/4ths pot has a premium hand, most likely an over pair to the board. The caller you believe has 2 pair or a set. How many outs do you have?

- You cannot count on a 9 being good for you, as you believe one of the opponents might hold a set. That would also put a 4 straight on the board and any T would beat you.

- You cannot fully count on an 8, as you believe one of the opponents has 2 pair or a set; that 8 could boat them.

- You do not have a flush draw (yet).

- Only the 4 x Ts appear to be "clean" outs for you.

4 outs, with 47 unknown cards, means you have an 8.5% chance of hitting the turn, before you must decide whether to call another bet. This means you must get somewhere around 10.7 to 1 on a call to continue. With $3.06 in the pot, and facing a call of 90c, you are only getitng about 3.4 to 1 to call. Even if you consider that the lead bettor will go all in if you hit a T, you are only seeing a maximum of 7.15 to 1 implied odds from his stack; so you'd need to assume that BOTH players will get all in on a T turn to have the implied odds to call.

In my opinion, you were NOT "priced in" on this flop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
Turn... Gives me more outs but the guy I am putting on a premium shoves and the other guy calls!!! So I say that or they both have a pair or a set at this point. Against a set I am in bad shape and the price is giving me not so good odds with 1 is to 3. I thought about it and I called... Well the river was the best card possible and won a good pot but did I play it right or as I think it was a bit too loose.
On the turn, you are getting 3.1 to call (roughly). Given your reads, we now can think we have 4 x Ts, and 8 x clubs (non Tc) as outs. With 12 outs, and 46 unknown cards, we have a 26% chance of spiking the river. Well, needing just 2.8 to 1 odds to break even on a call, we NOW have a decent price per our reads. The thing is, we will still lose near the maximum about 3/4ths the time, and there are also some times that hitting our flush or straight may not be "good enough" to win the whole pot. So in large part, it was our loose calls when we were NOT likely to have been getting a good price, which set us up to possibly lose the maximum, or win a HUGE pot.

(By the way: If we are going to risk the loss, and take the price we are given, we should move in NOW for our remaining $3.52, as that will at least guarentee we get an extra 24c value if we hit).

So overall Etienne, I think you over played this hand a bit, and probably should have thought aobut dropping pre flop when the SPR stopped favoring play of the most likely flop hits your hand would see. Failing that, you missed the chance to get away from what was pretty much a very WEAK DRAW per your reads on the flop, and that stuck you even deeper. The fact you ended up winning really does not make up for the fact that you had little business sticking it out that far in my opinion.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 03:52 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 05:03 PM
(#4)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
Indeed as I thought I played it loose and got v v lucky.. thanks as this is the way you learn. Maybe I could have played it if the stacks had been much larger too.

Etienne
 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 05:20 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by etipac View Post
Indeed as I thought I played it loose and got v v lucky.. thanks as this is the way you learn. Maybe I could have played it if the stacks had been much larger too.

Etienne
^^ That, sir, is the right attitude to take!

This is a situation where someone can easily THINK they made "all the right moves" because they won the fat pot. But do this over and over again, and you will lose tons of $ in the long run, and none of us want to do that!

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 

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