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KK flop decision

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KK flop decision - Wed Jan 25, 2012, 10:06 PM
(#1)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Hello guys:
my question focuses more on the mathematical aspect of the game.
i was playing a 4 man sng and one player was terribly loose, calling a preflop shove with J9 and hitting his jack on the flop. The very next hand I woke up with pocket kings on the btn. (the blinds were 25/50; stacks were aprox as follows: btn 1000 / sb loose player 2000 / bb 1000)
PREFLOP: two players limped, i raised to 2.5 bb, they both called. (pot: 375)
FLOP: the flop came 285 rainbow. It was checked around to me, and I made a 1/4 pot bet (pot: 468), the SB raises to put me all in, I was hoping he was overvaluing a pair of eights (hopefuly because he thinks i have air and i made a standard c-bet when it was checked around to me). The BB folds and I made a hero call (given this guy's crazy plays) knowing in the back of my mind the possibility of running against two pair or even worse... a set!

i pokerstoved this particular hand a while ago getting an equity of 25% against the top two pairs eights and fives, and the worst case scenario being a monster underdog of 8.4% against a set of 88. Against two pair I notice I still have outs to make better two pairs by the board pairing on the turn or river (how many outs do I have to make 2 pair by the board pairing? or is that a concept of proability two cards to come?).
I also have 2 outs (8.4% chance of improving or 11 to 1 odds) to make a three of a kind... although I was not getting 11:1 odds for a +ev call. Clearly my only clean outs were the two kings left in the deck as the board pairing could give the opponent a boat if he has a set (the remaining 8, 5, or 2 hitting the turn or river are likely to be anti outs).

the opponent shows 8 5 for two pair and I rivered him hitting my miracle two-outer. really bad call gets rewarded
On to the main reason why i posted this thread... I'm interested in the probability of the board pairing. I would appreciate If anyone could give me solid numbers to these questions. with those numbers i could make intelligent all in decisions in the future, based on the pot odds, board texture and more.

1- What is the probability of the board pairing on the flop?
2- With three unpaired flop cards, what is the probability of the board pairing on the turn?
3- With four unpaired cards, what is the probability of the board pairing on the river?
4- All in preflop (five cards to come), what is the probability of the board pairing by the river?

Knowing those odds will hopefully help us all make a profit in the future.
Thanks for your responses
 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 02:19 AM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Assuming the opponent has hit 2 cards on the board, you're left with 5 outs on the flop, and (assuming the turn doesn't pair the board) 8 outs on the river.

Say he hit the top 2: that leaves you with 3 outs for the card he didn't pair, and two kings. If the turn is a blank, like say a J, that adds 3 J outs for you on the river. Rough percentages: 5x2 = 10% to pair on the turn, and 8 = 16% to pair on the river.

When you have the kings and two players limp before you, a 2.5BB raise is too small. There's already 3.5BB in the pot, and you're adding another 2.5BB. The first limper then gets 25% to call your raise, so he only has to hit something or be right 25% of the time for his call to be correct. The second limper gets 20%, so he'll be coming along too.

General consensus here is to make a standard raise and add 1 BB for every limper before you, so in this case it should have been a 4.5 BB raise. Not sure that would chase this guy away, but normal players would be folding an 8,5 off there. Well, they probably wouldn't be limping with that rubbish anyway. As far as your flop call goes - I would have made it too. Basically I am only crushed by AA or the weird 2-pair hand that should never be there to begin with. If you play your kings assuming someone hits two pair on a flop like this, you should muck em preflop...

Now on to the math.

1: chance of hitting a paired flop (but not the 2,5,8,K): 5% for each of thee three options (AAB, ABB, ABA) for a total of 15%
2 and 3: chance the deuce pairs is about 6/45 = 13% (either turn or river - that's about 6.5% for the turn)
chance the turn and river are the same but not a 2,5,8,K: 6%
total odds of the board pairing giving you a better 2 pair: 19%
4: is imho not interesting. If you assume he hits the two pair, the answer is the same as 3, and if you don't, it's going to be something you shouldn't take into consideration I think.

Look at this listing of odds as well:
http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

-------------------------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 04:18 AM
(#3)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi Super Rascal,

I think your preflop raise and especially your flop bet are way too small. On the flop you want to get value from worse overpairs 99-QQ which will definitely call you down, as well as 8x, 77, and 66 which will probably at least call the flop, and draws like 67 that will too. It doesn't have to be a huge bet--1/2 pot is sufficient on a board like this, but you're leaving a lot of value on the table by betting so small.

When he shoves his range is probably wider than just 88, 55, 22, 85, 52. There are probably some 8-out draws like 67, 64, 34, AA, and weaker over pairs in his range. Possibly even some 8x hands. How bad is your call really?


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 02:59 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Super Rascal!

Here are a couple things that I'd have done with this hand.

Preflop: I'd have made a standard raise, whch for me is to 3BB+1BB for each limper. With two players limping, I would have raised to 5BB.

Flop: I have an overpair to the board that has a possible straight draw. With the overpair, I would c-bet the flop, but I would want to make sure that I bet enough to price out the straight draw and make drawing for the opp a -EV play. To do this against one opp, I would bet 1/2 pot. If there was a combo straight/flush draw, then I'd have bet 2/3 pot. By betting less, it prices in the opponent and will make it a +EV play for them to draw.

When the opp that is known to play ATC shoves, with my overpair, I'm calling it every time. If they got lucky and outflopped me, so be it, there are many worse hands that they could have that I'm ahead of. This is a good example of why bankroll management is necessary. If the opp got lucky, then I could then just start another similar tourney.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Misinformation in post - and missing tourney info - Thu Jan 26, 2012, 03:09 PM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by SUPER RASCAL View Post
Hello guys:
i was playing a 4 man sng and one player was terribly loose, calling a preflop shove with J9 and hitting his jack on the flop. The very next hand I woke up with pocket kings on the btn. (the blinds were 25/50; stacks were aprox as follows: btn 1000 / sb loose player 2000 / bb 1000)
PREFLOP: two players limped, i raised to 2.5 bb, they both called. (pot: 375)
FLOP: the flop came 285 rainbow. It was checked around to me, and I made a 1/4 pot bet (pot: 468), the SB raises to put me all in, I was hoping he was overvaluing a pair of eights (hopefuly because he thinks i have air and i made a standard c-bet when it was checked around to me). The BB folds and I made a hero call (given this guy's crazy plays) knowing in the back of my mind the possibility of running against two pair or even worse... a set!

I have to assume this is a 4 max; 1 winner; starting stack 1000; level 3; turbo format (5 minute level); next level 50/100.

First off – I had to do some digging to get to the actual facts of the hand, up to this point. There were a lot of misleading statements in your post. I also had to find the tournament info, which I posted above. I’m basing my evaluation on the info that I believe is involved in this hand.

After playing 3 levels, the only read you gave us was that the SB was a loose player. You referred to his last hand, which was an extremely loose call, considering at that point all players had around 20BB’s. When you have a villain, who has shown willingness to risk his tourney PF, you may want to ‘shove’ KK in the BTN.

I found lots of discrepancies in your post. I’m not sure you’re relating exactly what happened, prior to the previous shove call with J9. Was the villain 3bet or 4bet committed; was there history between to two players; was this late at night; was there any indication he was drunk, or tilting?

The hand you described in your post was that the hand was limped to you by both players; therefore you would have to be in the BB, which you weren’t! Hence, the replies criticizing you for making a poor raise sizing choice are moot.

After studying the play of the hand, you were actually in the BTN, and open/ raised 2.5BB. The blinds call, you now have a 3-way pot, with 375 chips, and a SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio) of just over 2. The flop is a pretty safe looking 853 rainbow; you proceed to make what seems to be a bluff inducing c-bet. At this point, you don’t want to ‘Value Own’ yourself (making a bet that only better hands will call), but at the same time you must build the pot to a level, that you can get the rest of your money in on the turn (hopefully, without chasing away players). In order to do that, the pot needs to be greater than your remaining stack; with a SPR of 2.3, this is an easy task. A c-bet for around 200 is a good balance to meet your needs.

As far as Poker Stoving – you need to put in a ‘range‘ of hands you believe the villain will take this action on. As stated in a prior post, you are way ahead equity wise. Also, the blinds are going to put you at push/fold stack when they go up (this is a turbo, that should be right around the corner).

Oops, got to run – will finish evaluation later today. I’ll show you how to figure the odds you requested.
.
 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 06:42 PM
(#6)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Thanks for the awesome feedback guys and yeah king_spadez1… it seems I was first to act preflop afterall in the BTN!..hence the 2.5 raise, sorry for the confusion
Btw I’ll keep in mind to bet larger post flop, at least 1/3 pot on a seemingly harmless flop to create an spr to play for stacks king_spadez1, and to get value from worse hands oriholic, especially playing against a loose opp. As far as my preflop raise JWK24 and Ov3rsight, I’ll make sure to follow the rule of +1 bb for every limper and use correct postflop bet sizing to deny the odds for chasers too. Nevermind about my board pairing question # 4 folks!
 
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SPR is guide set after PF action - Thu Jan 26, 2012, 07:29 PM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by SUPER RASCAL View Post
Thanks for the awesome feedback guys and yeah king_spadez1… it seems I was first to act preflop afterall in the BTN!..hence the 2.5 raise, sorry for the confusion
Btw I’ll keep in mind to bet larger post flop, at least 1/3 pot on a seemingly harmless flop to create an spr to play for stacks king_spadez1
SPR:
SPR is established at the end of PF action. It is a guide to help you plan a path for the hand. Because of the SPR (2.3) in this hand, and your over pair to the board... your plan was to get your stack in by the turn.
.
 
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Thu Jan 26, 2012, 10:35 PM
(#8)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
SPR:
SPR is established at the end of PF action. It is a guide to help you plan a path for the hand. Because of the SPR (2.3) in this hand, and your over pair to the board... your plan was to get your stack in by the turn.
.
you're right...thx for the help bro!
looking forward to discuss more hands with you all

Last edited by SUPER RASCAL; Thu Jan 26, 2012 at 10:37 PM.. Reason: rewording
 

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