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45ppl sng qq v aj

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45ppl sng qq v aj - Fri Jan 27, 2012, 07:06 AM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
PokerStars Hand #74546701909: Tournament #506992034, $0.23+$0.02 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2012/01/27 4:04:34 UTC [2012/01/26 23:04:34 ET]Table '506992034 4' 9-max Seat
#6 is the buttonSeat 1: heekinho (2265 in chips)
Seat 2: skathead (10865 in chips)
Seat 3: tuckeralb (6590 in chips)
Seat 4: sellomatiko (7420 in chips)
Seat 5: kartenpabst (2465 in chips)
Seat 6: KvazaRV (3011 in chips)
Seat 7: AKbadia (2300 in chips)
Seat 9: holdemace486 (2110 in chips)
AKbadia: posts small blind 75
holdemace486: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to holdemace486 [Qc Qs]
heekinho: folds
skathead: folds
tuckeralb: calls 150
sellomatiko: raises 300 to 450
kartenpabst: folds
KvazaRV: folds
AKbadia: folds
holdemace486: raises 1660 to 2110 and is all-in
tuckeralb: folds
sellomatiko: calls 1660
*** FLOP ***
[Kh Ad 9h
]*** TURN ***
[Kh Ad 9h] [3h]
*** RIVER **
* [Kh Ad 9h 3h] [3d
]*** SHOW DOWN ***
holdemace486: shows [Qc Qs] (two pair, Queens and Threes)
sellomatiko: shows [Ah Jh] (a flush, Ace high)
sellomatiko collected 4445 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 4445 | Rake 0 Board [Kh Ad 9h 3h 3d]Seat 1: heekinho folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 2: skathead folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 3: tuckeralb folded before FlopSeat 4: sellomatiko showed [Ah Jh] and won (4445) with a flush, Ace highSeat 5: kartenpabst folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 6: KvazaRV (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 7: AKbadia (small blind) folded before FlopSeat 9: holdemace486 (big blind) showed [Qc Qs] and lost with two pair, Queens and Threes

hello guys my questions about this hand and some info before i made my play.

Of recently i have been practicing +ev play i think you call it
to be honest as been a bankroll wipe out

my opponent i had watched carefully as i doubled up early on with kk against this opp,he lose called a6 suited.

when my opp raised i instantly put him on Ax,and with some thought decided to push against this opp using what i decifered as +ev play.

My question is this +ev style of play
my initial thought playing my own way i would of folded
but using +ev decided to try this without any success all day

thankyou in advance look forward to your analysis
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 07:43 AM
(#2)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,024
(Community Coordinator)
Hi there holdemace486,

I'm not evaluating the hand here but I will give you my opinion on it.

Personally I have no problem with your shove in this spot and here's why.
  • You mentioned that your opponent was a loose player. With your premium holding here you are also ahead of most tight players. This is definitely a +EV spot.
    With only 14 Big Blinds left in a tournament it's definelty getting close to Fold/Shove mode. The opponents raise means that if you decide to get involved here you are better to shove like you did.

The worst thing you could do here is call the raise preflop and then fold to the overcards post-flop. I think you did OK here.

Just out of curiosity I Pokerstoved the Queens against a tight opponent (In this example I put the opp on 11.5% VPIP range). On this range your Queens would be ahead.



Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 07:59 AM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by royalraise85 View Post
Hi there holdemace486,

I'm not evaluating the hand here but I will give you my opinion on it.

Personally I have no problem with your shove in this spot and here's why.
  • You mentioned that your opponent was a loose player. With your premium holding here you are also ahead of most tight players. This is definitely a +EV spot.
    With only 14 Big Blinds left in a tournament it's definelty getting close to Fold/Shove mode. The opponents raise means that if you decide to get involved here you are better to shove like you did.

The worst thing you could do here is call the raise preflop and then fold to the overcards post-flop. I think you did OK here.

Just out of curiosity I Pokerstoved the Queens against a tight opponent (In this example I put the opp on 11.5% VPIP range). On this range your Queens would be ahead.



Raiser
thanks royal appreciated,does make me feel sick tho that im generally getting my money in good and losing still,and thanks for the poker stove equity first time ive seen that in use.
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 08:26 AM
(#4)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Holdemace I am trying to be constructive here so please do not take offence. If you are ever folding QQ here in a $.25 45 man from the BU where you have 14 bb's and you are gonna be losing 225 more chips as the blinds go through you and who knows when the next level is then just stop playing poker right now!
What hand are you waiting for assuming this is the bbl that is going to be better read or no read? I don't frankly care what he has!
Now regarding your comment about generally getting it in good. We are not concerned about getting it in good but making +EV choices period!

 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 08:49 AM
(#5)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Holdemace I am trying to be constructive here so please do not take offence. If you are ever folding QQ here in a $.25 45 man from the BU where you have 14 bb's and you are gonna be losing 225 more chips as the blinds go through you and who knows when the next level is then just stop playing poker right now!
What hand are you waiting for assuming this is the bbl that is going to be better read or no read? I don't frankly care what he has!
Now regarding your comment about generally getting it in good. We are not concerned about getting it in good but making +EV choices period!

good point but when you have played +ev play all day and lost i was bound to be weary with only 1 doller br left,and had lost the same style tourney ,a similar way the one before,
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 08:57 AM
(#6)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Why are you playing games other than $.25 with such a low bankroll?
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 09:02 AM
(#7)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Why are you playing games other than $.25 with such a low bankroll?
because i stupidly did not listen to everyones advice and stuck to br managment like the stubbord numbnuts i can be
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 09:37 AM
(#8)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
You got it in with pocket queens against AJ. That's a +EV move as far as I can see since the odds are in your favor. He just sucked out, that's what happens in poker. If you play 1000 QQ against AJ, you can assume you're going to win about 2 out of every 3 hands. It seems you're a bit results oriented.
If you made a good move or not, it is not decided by the outcome.

I agree with the others here - you simply cannot fold QQ to a raise here. You're in the BB, you have 13 BB left. A fold would be absolutely terrible. If the guy had shoved - who knows - but not to a limper and a raiser. And even if he had shoved, I'd beat him into the pot with my queens. If you fold queens, you're basically waiting for KK or AA. You get those about once every 110 hands. Do you have time to wait out those 110 hands?

Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
good point but when you have played +ev play all day and lost ..,
It's variance, get used to it. It's never gonna go away unfortunately.

As far as getting the money in good: get a sample size big enough, and you'll see that you will be making money if you consistently get your money in with the best of it.

-------------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 09:57 AM
(#9)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
cheers ov3 appreciated and result orientated not sure what that means to be honest
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 01:48 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi HoldemAce!

I agree with the others and I'm getting it in with QQ here every single time. There are only two hands that dominate QQ and as Raiser pointed out from pokerstove, QQ is basically a 66% favorite.
That means that out of every 3 times, you will double up twice and bust once. Yes, QQ is ahead, but will lose 1/3 of the time.

So, for the two wins, you will gain 4445 chips each and for the loss you will lose 2110.
(4445+4445-2110)/3 = 2260 chips on average is what you will have at the end of the hand.
2260-2110 (original stack) = +150 chips... so the EV for this exact scenario is +150 chips.

If the opp would ever fold or have worse cards, then the +EV number will be much higher, as you would win a lower number of chips (without a chance of losing) if they fold or could have higher equity in QQ (better than the 66% that it is here).

Shoving here is the correct decision in my eyes and if it were me in the hand, I'm doing it here every single time.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 28, 2012, 08:37 AM
(#11)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
thx john appreciated good analysis 2-1 qq love it
 

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