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6MaxNLHE $0.01/$0.02

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6MaxNLHE $0.01/$0.02 - Fri Jan 27, 2012, 10:38 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Flop a set, but face a strong river bet, with some better hands possible. Fold, call or reraise?

Opponent was new to table, brought the max $5.00 and had won one pot without showing so no real reads. My thoughts were unlikely they would not reraise preflop with KK/QQ, unless they are the type to limp big pairs, but I don't see it often so I discounted those hands here. Their flop bet indicates either a Kx hand, possibly a straight draw with 57 or 79 or worst case for me pocket 88



How often am I likely to be good here? Should I bet for value, call or go away?

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Jan 27, 2012 at 10:50 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 11:06 AM
(#2)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Opponent bets $1.16 into the $2.45 pot on the river, replayer shows the bet being made but then it vanishes from the table - I've tried editing the hand again, but same thing happens here. Pot is $3.61 when I have my decision on the river.



Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Fri Jan 27, 2012 at 11:10 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 12:40 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Ed,

You do not really give enough specific info about the player to say for sure how often you are beat here. I can say this...

The more PASSIVE they have been, the more I'd lean to a CALL (rather than a shove).

...

It strikes me that the Q has probably somehow improved this player's hand.
Either that, or you were behind all along.

You started with an aggro line on your set right away, by raising the donk lead of 12c (with a caller) to 36c to go.

The Villain still in on the river flatted that.

You then continued your aggression through the turn, and he check/called.

On the River, he now leads into you for a bet that you are all but obligated to at least CALL on your action pattern. A lot of players at micro stakes will tend to put aggressors on AK pre flop, and convince themselves when AK hits that they are facing that hand all along.

To me that bet really breaks down to the fact he has either KQ and can now BEAT AK, or a set of 8s. (I do agree with you that on minimal info, KK/QQ are hands we can probably down grade here).

A STRAIGHT would also be pretty sure to know it is good, so he may well check the river and allow you to put another bet in (which you've shown every indication of doing).

Unless this guy is very passive, I am thinking KQ more often than 88, as he may well know in his "monkey brain" that you could be on a set or a straight yourself (that isn't an insult,we all have monkey brains deep down ), and he wants to show down for less than the rest of your chips.

(Please note: I am not dismissing the possibility of a straight here, nor lesser 2 pairs or even single pair hands when I say "I think it is KQ/88". I merely pick those 2 hands as they represent the likeliest division point between types of hands you beat, and those which beat you. Just like we are down grading KK/QQ here, we also need to recognize that the straight hands that got there are somewhat loose lead hands oop on the flop, so we should down grade those a bit too.)

All in all Ed, the size of the pot pretty much obligates you to at LEAST a call here, as there are just too many things he may have that you beat. The remaining money in your stack is really not much, so I think I am inclined to just go ahead and raise all in here, as an opponent who is on less will also be all but obligated to call; yes i may lose another $1.00 or so, but I also will not leave that same amount of value on the table either.

The true "tilter" for me whether this is a call or a shove is how passively the villain has played.

So what happened?

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Jan 27, 2012 at 01:45 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 01:31 PM
(#4)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Thanks JDean,

I had very similar thoughts. The lack of reads was because he had only been at the table for a couple of orbits and won one pot with a pre-flop raise then c-betting the flop to take it without showdown. When he led out on the flop, 88 would fit both his preflop/postflop action. An open ended staright draw looked less likely, but would have got there on the turn. I wasn't at all sure after the turn. My most likely hand to put him on when he bet the river was KQ, but it still fitted the 88 or straight.

I decided I really had to call, and if I had to call, I really should go for it

so that's what I did.



thanks again

Good luck all

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 01:42 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
VERY NICE ED!

That is a fat little win, for max value...sweet.

Your thoughts matched my down the line, as did your action. Love the "no fear" attitude after getting that deep, that led to max value for you!

...and if he had 88, so be it.

Well played sir.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 02:35 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
It strikes me that the Q has probably somehow improved this player's hand.
^^This. And if that's true, it's great for you because the Q never beats us (except vs. QQ specifically, but this seems like an extremely unlikely holding given the action on all streets). I think the villain is going to show up with KQ a lot here. Other 2 pairs, sets, and straights don't make a lot of sense as most players would be raising on the flop or turn with these hands, or if they are getting cute, check-raising the river. They're not taking a check/call, bet line very often.

Given all this I would at least call, and I think it's generally +EV to raise all in without reads, he's always paying us off with KQ.

Dave

Edit: Just watched the result, his holding is another reason why we should never dream of folding in this spot when the river action makes no sense for better hands than ours.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Jan 27, 2012 at 02:37 PM..
 
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Sat Jan 28, 2012, 09:16 AM
(#7)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
I would have called 50% of the time, Raised him like you did maybe 25%, Reraise all in 15% and Fold 10%.

Good hand on the whole!!!

:-)

But I ask no reads on this player would make me call.
 
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Sat Jan 28, 2012, 05:56 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
with the way this hand goes down bettingwise i put your guy on AK, AQ or KQ
with like a buck behind a call here, i'm stickin it all in there and if i was behind the whole time, or he was callin down with QQ and spiked, i say nh.
edit: just saw results ...nice play ED!

Last edited by mtnestegg; Sat Jan 28, 2012 at 05:59 PM..
 

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