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10NL 9,9 in position vs LAG

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10NL 9,9 in position vs LAG - Fri Jan 27, 2012, 06:55 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! guys, I had been at the table for well over an hour at this point and I think my perceived image was TAG. The opp had been playing very loose and aggressive. Generally he was playing ATC from any position however occasionally he had good hands also obviously. I had played about 7 hands against the opp, winning 5 out of them.



Generally the opp would take a stab on the flop even OOP (heads without fail & sometimes in multiway pots also) and would fold to a raise on the flop or if he got called would check fold on the turn if his hand did not connect to the board. When he did continue with the hand his general betting pattern was about 1/2 to 2/3 with his good made hands.

In this hand the opp checks twice in a 3 way pot and check raises on the turn almost exactly the same amount which I had left behind. I found it very suspicious and out of character.

I know looking at it mathematically it is easy fold. However taking all the above things into consideration I think its very fishy. What is the best course of action in this spot?

Cheers
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 10:33 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Dedeyez!

In this spot I have to think a fold is best for you.

The SPR going to the flop was right around 4, which tends to favor standing on top pair type hands, but you do not have a top pair hand.

Are you really prepared to lose another $10+ to "protect" a somewhat small investment of $2.45 here?

While the check through on the flop may have encouraged him to try the huge C/R bluff on the turn when you bet and the 3bettor folded, it may also have been him triggering a slow play of a hand like 66, or him trying to look "bluff-y" with something like A5. With this guy's "standard" action being to lead out on marginal value holdings, a lot of the hands you are ahead of are probably hands he leads on (flush draws/A6/K6/77/88 type hands, etc). This means more often than not, you must suspect that waiting to bet like this might be a slow play or a monster hit, and he is praying you try to sheriff him.

To me, while a large bet like this MAY be a bluff of some sort, my investment is simply too small to risk a hero call without at least a realistic re-draw to something that MAY be best if I am behind...2 outs to 9s full with only 1 card just does not cut it in my book.

I think I fold here, and get him next time.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Jan 27, 2012 at 11:02 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 27, 2012, 11:22 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

I agree with JDean, this looks like a value line to me, it's out of character but I think an easy fold.

Since you elected to check back the flop, I might also check the turn which keeps the pot small, planning to call a river bet since we have showdown value in a small pot and our line will induce some bluffs.

Dave


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Sat Jan 28, 2012, 09:34 AM
(#4)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
I think the check on the flop which is very good on the whole of course, the pairing board, and the bet is one of the most right time to try a check raise for me even with nothing as the pot is big and now it creates monsters into certain type of players minds... Though not a shove so anything he has doesn't count and a fold is 100% for me.
 
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Sat Jan 28, 2012, 10:37 AM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi,

Since you elected to check back the flop, I might also check the turn which keeps the pot small, planning to call a river bet since we have showdown value in a small pot and our line will induce some bluffs.

Dave
Hi again!

It seems to me that Dave is hanging his suggestion of a check thru on the turn to get to a cheap showdown where you have some value for a call on this:

[Villain] would fold to a raise on the flop or if he got called would check fold on the turn if his hand did not connect to the board.

With this read, I totally agree with him.

The aggro villain in the BB will tend to "give up" on his misses and not pay you anything, and the depth of money allows him a chance to bang you HARD on strong bluffs into what appears to be weakness after the flop check through (as well as bang his better made hands to look bluffy). That kind of makes a bet somewhat "meh" on 99 against him, since your read says he does not have much of a calling range at all...

If you had given more info on the BTN villain, there may have been room to think your bet on 99 for value is fine, but without that info, keeping the pot small and getting to showdown with a hand that has pretty decent showdown value on the betting action you've seen, is probably better in my opinion.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Jan 28, 2012, 07:07 PM
(#6)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
If you had given more info on the BTN villain, there may have been room to think your bet on 99 for value is fine, but without that info, keeping the pot small and getting to showdown with a hand that has pretty decent showdown value on the betting action you've seen, is probably better in my opinion.

-JDean
Thanks for your comments guys. Yes in hindsight given the strength of our hand checking the turn would have been a better line to avoid a tough decision like this one on the turn and just try to get a cheap show down on the river. But I felt I had the best hand and it was a value bet.

The opp on the btn (3 better) could have any two cards as I had made couple of big lay downs against him being OOP leading upto this hand, so i think he felt he could exploit his position in this hand. So once he checks on the flop in position I was pretty sure that he has air as he would have bet even half decent hand given the way he had been playing. As I said in the original post that I had been at the table for over an hour at this point and I had been paying close attention to these two opps (being the most active players).

Given the way the opp in the bb had been playing I think even if he had a 5, he would have lead on the flop or the turn. He had to gone to show down tons and he had not slow played even his monster hands. If I had no reads against the opp, it would have been easy fold and I would have moved on to the next hand to find a better spot to risk 105bbs.

But the opp's line did not make sense at all and I felt the only reason the opp is making such huge bet (which he hasn't done upto now) is to get me off the hand. I did take some time to make the decision and it turned out to be right one.



But there is a lesson to be learnt as Thelangolier said we could have not bet the turn and avoided a tough decision on the turn even if we think we had the best hand as it is vulnerable and there are a lot of hands that beat us.

Cheers
 

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