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Stealing the hand on the river! Good or bad idea?

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Stealing the hand on the river! Good or bad idea? - Sun Jan 29, 2012, 03:58 AM
(#1)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Recently I’ve been experimenting with smallball, and LAG style of play. I find it interesting, that they may actually lend a hand to one another. Smallball will keep the pot small enough, so that you may try to steal the pot for a smaller % of your chips overall. I’ve been trying to play my opponents, not just my cards. Although most of the time I don’t have reads, early on… there seems to still be select styles the follow certain ‘actions’.

This is a 6 max STT; turbo; 1st place 65%, 2nd place 35%; no reads; 3rd hand of the match; play money (plays like micro-stakes)

Below is a hand that I played the ‘actions’ made by the villain, not my cards:

PF (6c4c):
I open/raise from the CO, 2.5X (smallball); at the moment I want to see what the BTN will let me get away with. Being that I’m opening a wide range of hands, I need to have my PFR as small as possible, but still get the job done. The two goals I’m looking for, is to get position, and limit the field. I wind up IP HU, that’s good news.

FLOP (; ):
The board has some connectivity (possible draws), but still a favorable board to c-bet. This same villain called a 7X PFR, last hand, and folded to the c-bet. I make a ½ pot c-bet (smallball), and the villain calls. At this point, I feel he has hit some part of the board, exactly what I don’t know. Could be an 8x or 5x, possible Jx (I hope not), or draw.

TURN ():
Villain ‘donks’ out with a smallish bet, I feel this is more of a feeler/blocker bet. I put him on either 8’s; 5’s; combination of the previous two hands, heart suited; J’s with weak kicker; A’s with weak kicker; straight/flush draws. Because of villains weak bet, I want to try to steal this hand on the river, but I need to keep the pot small; I call.

RIVER ():
Villain checks. I feel if he had an Ace, or set, he would bet something (he can’t expect me to bet for him). The only way to win this hand is to bet, but if he has 8’s or 5’s, can I get him to lay them down? Busted draws will fold, not sure about J’s weak kicker (good chance strong kicker calls). If villain thinks my passive play on the ‘turn’, was due to the , then he may believe I have a J. If I make a 2/3 pot bet and lose, then I’ll be in a slightly larger hole (610 instead of 825); if I take down the pot I’ll have 1125. In a ‘cash’ game, I’ll need to win this 2 out of 5 times (40%) for +EV, but in a tourney, I’ll need to win this even more than that to make it worth the risk.

I feel that there are enough combos of draws, as well as 8’s, and 5’s, that will cave to a 2/3 bet (LAG). Bucket is in position; here we go – ‘click’, Bet 215!

After the replayer stops, ‘click’ the right controller button to update the betting:

I would really appreciate any critique of my thought process. This style of play is risky, and can lead to an early handicap, but it may show +ROI against the right dynamics; I’m still working on developing it.
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Sun Jan 29, 2012, 12:42 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi king_spadez!

Preflop, with an unopened pot, if I'm going to get involved in the hand, I would raise here. My standard is to 3BB, but using 2.5BB as a std open is perfectly fine. Without reads, this early in the tourney, I'd fold in this situation.
If I was at a cash table (especially the limit tables that I'm used to playing, micro online or casino 3/6), I'm opening with this hand more often.

On the flop, the opp checks and I would also c-bet here. I wouldn't necessarily call a 1/2 pot bet here a smallball play, as that's a more standard type of c-bet against one opponent with a dry board.

The flop gives a gutshot straight draw and the opp now leads. To call this, my hand would need 17% equity, which a gutshot straight does not. Even if I thought a 6 would win the hand, that still only gives 7 outs (14%).
Early in a tourney without a read on the opp, I'm folding to their bet here, as the most likely only way to win the pot will be with a river bluff and since it's so early in the tourney, I wouldn't have an idea as to how the opp would react to a river bluff. Also, if the opp had been beat they way they were the previous hand, they could be trying to trap a player to make up for their chip loss too.

The board pairs on the river and the opp checks again. They're either really weak or they've got the nuts here and want to check/raise... would be my opinion of their hand. I like the 2/3 pot amount here for a bluff, as it does look like a value bet and the way that the hand was played, it looks like I'm holding Jx, QQ or KK (like hand preflop, think I've got the best hand on the flop, scared of the A on turn, with second ace on board, I'm not as scared of the opp having an ace).

If I wanted to run a bluff with that type of hand here, the way it was gone about is ok, but I think that without an opp specific read, it's much too early in a tourney to be trying a risky play like this.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Perfect Storm for the 6c 4c - Sun Jan 29, 2012, 01:00 PM
(#3)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi king_spadez!

The board pairs on the river and the opp checks again. They're either really weak or they've got the nuts here and want to check/raise... would be my opinion of their hand. I like the 2/3 pot amount here for a bluff, as it does look like a value bet and the way that the hand was played, it looks like I'm holding Jx, QQ or KK (like hand preflop, think I've got the best hand on the flop, scared of the A on turn, with second ace on board, I'm not as scared of the opp having an ace).

If I wanted to run a bluff with that type of hand here, the way it was gone about is ok, but I think that without an opp specific read, it's much too early in a tourney to be trying a risky play like this.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)
Hey John,

Thanks for an early reply!

The above quote is a PERFECT synopsis of the hand as I saw it played. If there ever was a GREAT opportunity to steal a pot, this was it. I guess you can say it was a ‘perfect storm’ for my hand.

Thanks again,
Keith
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Last edited by king_spadez1; Sun Jan 29, 2012 at 01:06 PM.. Reason: edited 6c4c - to show cards in post
 
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Sun Jan 29, 2012, 07:45 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi King,

In play chip games you'll get so many players that do all kinds of things that make no sense, so you may find it problematic to work on this in these games.

In this hand when you don't raise the turn I would be pretty sure you don't have an ace and would have bet about half your stack on the river with all my weak hands and only checked an ace to you (to allow you to bluff). Your range just looks like Jx or a pocket pair when you flat the turn bet imo.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Good river 'line' - Sun Jan 29, 2012, 08:48 PM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi King,

In play chip games you'll get so many players that do all kinds of things that make no sense, so you may find it problematic to work on this in these games.

In this hand when you don't raise the turn I would be pretty sure you don't have an ace and would have bet about half your stack on the river with all my weak hands and only checked an ace to you (to allow you to bluff). Your range just looks like Jx or a pocket pair when you flat the turn bet imo.

Dave
Thanks for the input!

Good 'line' betting the river into the PFR. It would be a tough spot for J's.
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