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Playing 99 in position against a NIT

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Playing 99 in position against a NIT - Mon Jan 30, 2012, 05:52 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
So 3 villians preflop but i'm mostly focased on JestemTomi i only have 43 hands on them so the read may be right out but...they have played 8 and 4.

So with the raise i'm thinking a premium pair Maybe AK



My thinking was see a flop and if I hit a 9 i'll get paid, if they check to me i'll throw out a small bet and see where i stand.

Now ( 2hours later) I'm wondering should i have just thrown it away ?

As always thoughts gratefully received,


Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Mon Jan 30, 2012, 06:28 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
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Hi Grade B.

With stats like that your opp is definately a nit, and I LOVE set mining vs a nit...:-)

Right off the bat, I have to think that your flat is just fine: a nit is going to have enough value a lot of the time to lead on flops that hit you, and if he is too nitty to lead the flop, you can probably keep your total investment small enough by leading into him to deny odds to any sort of draw and be profitable. As long as you are prepped to put nothing more into the pot if he check/calls your lead when you do not have a set, you are fine.

I am guessing your issues lie in the others who called along and turned a medium SPR into a very low one, right?

My opinion on that is the only adjustments I am making really is to recognize any check by the nit may now NOT result in a profitable spot for me to go ahead and lead at the pot without a set, and with overs. That is just fine though, because you simply fall back on the "no bet/no bet" thought, and play 99 pretty cheaply that way.

You see Grade B, flopping a set is probably going to be as fine in a 4 way pot, as it is HU versus the nit alone, only there are MORE people, who perhaps are more likely to make "mistakes" against you to pay you off if you do flop a set. If you do not flop a set, at least it is still a pretty "cheap" 20c fold for the try.

If you had very AGGRO opp's left to act after you flatted to play vs the nit, then things change a bit in your thinking, but not seeing a 3bet behind you really changes nothing in your overall thinking, except maybe a bit less willingness to lead if it checks around to you.

I think your play is still fine.

Hope it helps.


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Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 30, 2012 at 06:39 PM..
 
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Mon Jan 30, 2012, 07:10 PM
(#3)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
ty Jdean,

so say i did flop a set then what, If its an over pair then that nit is prob betting into me, Do I flat to drag in the others or go for some value now?



thanks


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jan 30, 2012, 07:26 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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SCORE!

Not a bad flop Grade B!

To me, the answer would depend a lot on action not yet seen:

- How large does the Nit lead?
the bigger the lead, the less likely I am to slow play.

- What are the call tendencies of the other 2?
the more often they will call a bet and a raise, the more often I'll do that immediately.

- What are the hand ranges of the other 2?
how likely is a it either of the other opp's have flopped a draw?

- What is your past image, and how likely are the opp's to have noticed that?
how likely is it your image will result in a raise by you over a lead not being "believed"?


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Mon Jan 30, 2012, 07:45 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi Jdean,

Jest leads out for 40 cents

Mirda82 was a bit stationy pre played nearly 30% of hands not one raise. Had gone to showdown only twice, so a fit or fold.

Brougio was quite new to table Had him as a LAG, but only 12 hands or so read there.

My Image was tight. (i had been card dead for a lot of the session) had stolen a few hands based on the image, but at same time I think Jest would notice Mirda might and Brougio not a chance.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jan 30, 2012, 08:59 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi again Grade B!

I think with the pot up around $1.20, given my stack size 25% added is pretty good even if I take it down right away. I'm not saying I WANT that of course, but if that happens I'm not crying bitter tears.

If I simply flat, either of the somewhat loose players behind me would get a good price to peel the turn to spike an 8 or 9 out draw (~4 to 1, a break even price if either has that draw). A LAG and a CS fit or fold player probably are not mucking to my immediate raise if they have these kind of draws either, so to avoid cascading calls laying an even FATTER price, I am raising.

I think I'd make it about $1.00 to $1.20 to go (60c to 80c raise).

That amount still is small enough a Nit on an over pair may flat, but is not really going to 'scare" the loose players behind me. It also creates a pot that I can possibly get my stack in on the turn without risking a big suspicious over bet.

-JDean

(P.S. had to check stack sizes to be sure, but it seems a raise to $1.20 would make the pot $3.20, with $3.58 behind for you. You could easily get the shortest stack in, and/or jestem with a pot bet, but you may not be able to get yourself all in if brougio sticks around. But then if you get 2 callers, an all is for you is definately the turn move, assuming it comes a blank of course. $1.20 would be my choice)


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Last edited by JDean; Mon Jan 30, 2012 at 09:10 PM..
 
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Mon Jan 30, 2012, 09:09 PM
(#7)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
TY Jdean,

I min raised here and did get two folds and a call from jest.

I then lead 1/2 pot on turn and he popped it.

I called......

woohoo

He showed JJ

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jan 30, 2012, 09:51 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
TY Jdean,

I min raised here and did get two folds and a call from jest.

I then lead 1/2 pot on turn and he popped it.

I called......

woohoo

He showed JJ

Grade b
That will work too!

Of course the worry I'd have versus a true nit is that he would slow down big time when you even min raise. That is why I would prefer the larger raise, as it keeps him from possibly conserving his chips against you by a check/call line.

Good hand though!

-JDean


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