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Value bet the river?

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Value bet the river? - Tue Jan 31, 2012, 01:02 PM
(#1)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450


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I only had 4 hands on the villain so no reads. My initial plan was to get value from Mac-Rules on my immediate left (who was a complete donk, probably the worst I've seen) but he folded for once. BB calls and the flop comes 9Q4 with two hearts. He bets and I decide to just call.

Turn is an offsuit 9 and he bets again, less than half the pot. Since he's unknown, this polarizes his range a little. He could either have a 9 hoping I'd call such a smallish bet, be on a flush/straight draw, or maybe even a pocket pair smaller than a queen. I find a complete bluff unlikely. I decide to call.

River is the seven of spades and the draws miss. This time he checks to me. I'm not really sure what to do here. If he has trips or better, he'd probably check-raise me and I'd be in a sticky spot. Then again, he could be holding a worse queen, or something like eights, tens or jacks. He'd probably reraise with kings at this stage in the tourney.

I find this spot rather difficult to analyze, really. Should I have done something differently, like value bet the river, or raise the flop to protect?

.....
 
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Tue Jan 31, 2012, 03:03 PM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
I like the preflop raise, nice move even if it is UTG. The BB calls you, which is nice since you'll be having position on him.

The flop's not too bad either. Top pair, top kicker, too bad about the two hearts. Still, if the turn hits you have a redraw to the nut flush. I'd make a c-bet here of about half pot. Until he donks into you of course, the we can either raise or flat. I'd prefer a raise here, although I think I'd probably call him.

The turn is a bad card, it pairs the board so if the villain was playing something like A9 or K9, you're now beat. Without a read, it's hard to say if he'd play a hand like that. He bets out again, which scares me a bit, but I'd probably make the call here and see what he does on the river.

The river's a complete blank, which is nice. He checks. That could mean three things:
1] He has the 9, thinks you have a good hand too, and checks to induce a bet from you he can shove on.
2] He had the flushdraw and didn't hit so gives up
3] He was on a bluff (or medium pocket pair) and doesn't want to fire the 3rd barrel

Option 1: you called two bets, if it was me I'd definitely be betting the river. So I'm inclined to think he does not have a 9. Also, at a 50 ct buyin, I wonder if people have the check-raise the river move in them.
Option 2: Most likely I would think, in which case betting would be pointless. He's never going to call a bet so there's no value to be had. I'd check back.
Option 3: Possible, but same as 2.

I like the check back. In hindsight, it's possible he would have called a riverbet with his jacks. But that would have meant his entire stack. If I get callked twice, I'd definitely muck if I'm raised on the river were I in his place. Thenh again, in his place I'd have 3-bet you preflop as well.

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Tue Jan 31, 2012, 06:04 PM
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ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Feskprins

I think Oversight has done a pretty good job in his analysis.

I too think I would look to reraise on the flop. On the turn when he leads again. I think this is our commitment point. At this point if we call here we can't really fold to a bet on the river. Since we've invested so much. I think he's got a some weaker Q's like KQ, QJ in his range that are betting the flop and possibly the turn here as well. I think on the turn I would either fold or shove. Given we just called on the flop I would probably go with the shove.

On the river, calling 2 bets already I think a 9 is almost always betting into us, he only has a stack for 1 more bet anyway. Not enough for a check raise move.

Oversight is correct in that a flush won't call on the river but there are some hands that will like KQ, QJ which are also hands this player might complete with from the BB. I think there is value here in betting the river, and I would likely just be moving allin.

Thanks
Andy




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