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My last one for you

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My last one for you - Wed Feb 01, 2012, 04:54 AM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
forgive for the title guys but i wanted to leave you with an interesting hand before i leave.


PokerStars Hand #74798309820: Tournament #558010342, $1.00+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2012/01/31 16:37:16 UTC [2012/01/31 11:37:16 ET]Table '558010342 239' 9-max Seat
#3 is the buttonSeat 1: kanton123 (7612 in chips)
Seat 2: izsi7 (1575 in chips)
Seat 3: holdemace486 (2798 in chips)
Seat 4: Langa20 (492 in chips)
Seat 5: javikoe (1563 in chips)
Seat 6: Urban357 (6170 in chips)
Seat 7: Poka Boy87 (2210 in chips)
Seat 8: AKPIAKK (1700 in chips)
Seat 9: cristi1923 (3650 in chips)
Langa20: posts small blind 25
javikoe: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to holdemace486 [Ah Js]
Urban357: calls 50
Poka Boy87: folds
AKPIAKK: calls 50
cristi1923: calls 50
kanton123: calls 50
izsi7: calls 50
holdemace486: raises 200 to 250
Langa20: raises 242 to 492 and is all-in
javikoe: folds
Urban357: calls
442AKPIAKK: calls
442cristi1923: folds
kanton123: calls
442izsi7: calls 442
holdemace486: calls 242
*** FLOP ***
[5s Ad 8c]
Urban357: checks
AKPIAKK: checks
kanton123: checks
izsi7: checks
holdemace486: bets 2306 and is all-in
Urban357: folds
AKPIAKK: folds
kanton123: calls
2306izsi7: calls 1083 and is all-in
*** TURN ***
[5s Ad 8c] [3d]
*** RIVER ***
[5s Ad 8c 3d] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
kanton123: shows [6h 7h] (a straight, Four to Eight)
holdemace486: shows [Ah Js] (a pair of Aces)
kanton123 collected 2446 from side pot
-2 izsi7: shows [5h 3h] (two pair, Fives and Threes)kanton123 collected 3249 from side pot-1 Langa20: shows [Ts Jh] (high card Ace)
kanton123 collected 3052 from main po

t*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 8747 Main pot 3052. Side pot-1 3249. Side pot-2 2446. | Rake 0 Board [5s Ad 8c 3d 4c]Seat 1: kanton123 showed [6h 7h] and won (8747) with a straight, Four to EightSeat 2: izsi7 showed [5h 3h] and lost with two pair, Fives and ThreesSeat 3: holdemace486 (button) showed [Ah Js] and lost with a pair of AcesSeat 4: Langa20 (small blind) showed [Ts Jh] and lost with high card AceSeat 5: javikoe (big blind) folded before FlopSeat 6: Urban357 folded on the FlopSeat 7: Poka Boy87 folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 8: AKPIAKK folded on the FlopSeat 9: cristi1923 folded before Flop

hi guys i would just like to know the maths on the flop if you would please
 
Old
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Wed Feb 01, 2012, 10:28 AM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Too bad no hand replayer...

On the flop, you have top pair with a medium kicker. No flush draw on board and the pot appears to be about 3100 with 5 people on the pot plus one person allin. This is a crazy hand. With 7 people in the pot, one or two will have a hand, the other five will have called with rags. With this many people (read: donkeys) in the pot, I'm not leading out here and most likely mucking the AJ to any bet. It's probably a good way to make money, but I'm not throwing away my tourney here, there's too many crap hands they could be having that still beat me.

Call me a nit, but when 6 ppl limp, I raise, and then I get shoved on and 4 people call that shove,. I'm mucking my AJ preflop. I'm trying to play poker, not win the lottery. I know I am a better player than these people and I'll get them when we're not seven handed.

The remainder of the hand demonstrates exactly what I mean: you shove the flop and get two callers.


Langa: has JT offsuit, but less than 10 BBs preflop. It's still a questionable shove preflop imho.

kanton: has 6,7 suited. His calling preflop is not good - what are you hoping for - flopping that 1 in 118 chance for a baby flush? He called your flop shove. At that point he was open ended for a 32% chance to hit and needs to put 2k in to win 5k (40%). That's NOT getting the proper odds, he should have folded his draw

izsi7: he limps preflop with 5,3 suited. Someone who makes that move probably shouldn't be playing poker for real money. You're never good and odds of having the best hand at the river are nil. The he calls after raise and a 3-bet shove. On the flop he calls a shove, and then calls off the last of his chips with bottom pair. He can reasonably account for 5 outs ( 5, 3x 3) for about a 20% chance. He needs to put in 1k to win 5k, so he's about getting the right odds on stacking off here.

You: It's a reasonable assumption you have the best hand here on the flop with your top pair. If any of thenm had AA or AK or AQ they would have bet preflop. The only likely candidate for this holding is Langa, and that would just be bad luck. But - when you bet, seeing the action preflop, do you think any of these people is going to lay down a small pair, a baby ace, any kind of draw at all? I doubt it, in which case I'm going to have to fade two cards. I don't like my odds there.

True - you had the best hand preflop and on the flop, but in a donkfest like this, the best hand is worth nothing. I'm saving my chips until the field thins out a little and most of these donkeys are on another table.

-----------------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com

Last edited by Ov3rsight; Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 10:32 AM..
 
Old
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Wed Feb 01, 2012, 10:40 AM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
ty ov3 very good analysis
 
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Wed Feb 01, 2012, 02:21 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Holdem!

Preflop, there are really two ways that I could play this hand. Either to limp along with everyone else or make a standard raise (3BB+1BB for each limper). More often I'm going to raise since I'm in position and want to thin the field, so I would raise to 8BB, 400 chips. When the SB raises to 492, I'd call because it would only be 92 chips more.
If I had made a smaller raise, that was 3-bet and called by four opps before my action, I would muck to the 3-bet. There are too many people in the pot and AJ will most likely not be the best hand.

The flop gives me top pair and a medium kicker. With three opps in the hand with me, one of them could easily have a better kicker than me. Due to this, I'm checking the flop for pot control.
I would not shove this flop, as early in a tourney, there are many players that would also call with any ace and not only could they have a better kicker, but they could have two pair.

The opp that hit the straight absolutely made the correct call on the flop. They had to put 2306 chips into a pot of 8747, 26%. With 8 outs on the flop, each out has 4% equity, so their hand has 32% equity. The hand equity number is higher than the equity they had in the pot, so it is a +EV play for them to call.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Wed Feb 01, 2012, 03:04 PM
(#5)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
JWK, I think you've misread the hand history here, but correct me if I'm wrong. Here's my math:

pot size:
Langa20: posts small blind 25 (+25)
javikoe: posts big blind 50 (+50)
Urban357: calls 50 (+50)
AKPIAKK: calls 50 (+50)
cristi1923: calls 50 (+50)
kanton123: calls 50 (+50)
izsi7: calls 50 (+50)
holdemace486: raises 200 to 250 (+250)
Langa20: raises 242 to 492 and is all-in (+467)
Urban357: calls (+442)
AKPIAKK: calls (+442)
kanton123: calls (+442)
izsi7: calls 442 (+442)
holdemace486: calls 242 (+242)

preflop potsize at the end of betting: 3052

holdemace486: bets 2306 and is all-in (2306)

flop potsize after hero's all-in: 5358

At this point kanton with the 6,7 has the open ended straight draw and calls 2306 into 5358 for 43% with 32% to hit his hand (8 outs for the straight)

kanton123: calls (+2306)

At this point izsi with the bottom pair calls 1083 into 7664 for 14% with 20% to hit his hand (2 outs for the set, 3 outs for bottom two pair assuming either would be good)

izsi7: calls 1083 and is all-in (+1083)

pot at the end of betting: 8747

Unless I'm completely misreading the hand history, I think I was right saying he should not have made the call. 2306 into 5358 isn't a +EV move with a 32% hand.

The 8747 pot appears to be after both kanton and izsi have called hero's allin on the flop, so I think my math is right here and JWK misread the potsize?

If my math is wrong, please point it out

--------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com

Last edited by Ov3rsight; Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 03:07 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 01, 2012, 06:15 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Ov3rsight!

There is one error, which is something that I did wrong for awhile too, until I learned the right way. When looking at the hand equities to see about calling, the amount of chips that the person would have to add needs to be added to the pot in order to calculate the equity number.

Preflop: there is 3052, then holdem shoves for 2306, making the pot 5358.
If kanton calls 2306, then it will be 2306 into a pot of 7664 (30%) with one opp left to act. The 2306 from kanton needs to be added in to get the correct pot equity number. The OESD has 8 outs * 4% per out after the flop, which is 32%.
At the moment kanton acts, it's 30% and ends up being 26% when iszi7 calls.

The opp does have more equity in their hand, than they do in the pot, so it is a call for kanton.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 01:10 AM
(#7)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Weird. kanton would have to invest 2k to win the 5k there, not to won 7.7k I would think. The 1k fromizsi would be implied odds if I understand those correctly
 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 11:27 AM
(#8)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Ok, did some reading, and it makes sense in part. When I do the odds in fractions I have no problem with it. When I transfer the fractions to percentages, it works out to include my own bet in the potsize, but my feeling is a bit off there. It makes more sense to me to calculate the potsize without my own bet in it. I have to bet 2306 in order to win the current pot, which is 5358. On the one hand, I can't win it unless I invest the 2306, so the pot is then 7664, but still, that's not the pot I see before me.

Weird
 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 11:34 AM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Ov3rsight!

Yeah. It was something that I did too and it took me some time to get used to doing it the correct way too, since I started out doing it the wrong way years ago. Keep at it and you'll get it, just like I did.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 12:46 PM
(#10)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Oh, I'll be doing it right now every time. I just need to get around the illogical bit about it.

--------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
Old
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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 04:13 AM
(#11)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Ok, just to get it straight - that means they're doing the math wrong here, correct?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXlub_aeeHY
(fast forward to 3:30)

--------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 

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