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$3.50 9 mans, should i call?

$3.50 9 mans, should i call? - Wed Feb 01, 2012, 08:20 AM
ceril12's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 45
Villain was playing 22/22 and only showdown was KJ which he shoved from SB on BB who was a short stack.

Wed Feb 01, 2012, 09:06 AM
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Ceril your patience here will be rewarded. The fold is best move at this point simply because we are level 3 and have plenty of chips left to play. We don't know what he is shoving with as we have so little info on him but the bottom line is that he could have TT+ or any paint that we are either way behind with or racing. Yes he could be ( and probably is a donkey ) but we don't need to risk it here.
Your open of less than 3x needs pointing out as to precisely why we make our open smaller from level 3 on. In other words..... our stack allows us to still open yet if we have to fold we can do so and preserve chips. Our result is the same but we have more chips left to play with.
My question is though that you have lost chips and what has he seen you do? Is he playing you knowing you will fold to a 3 bet?
Now I will also say that once I have less than 20 bb's I am not open/folding. If 99 does not fall into your less than 20 bb open/shove range than just fold pre.

oh and according to ICM calcs we actually can shove here. as the following chart shows

CO 10.0%, 99+ A9s+ A5s-A4s AJo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+
BU 4.2%, 99+ AQs+ AKo
SB 1.4%, QQ+
BB 0.9%, KK+

ICM for those that aren't aware tells us our share of the prize money based on our chip stack prior to the blinds being posted.
The question have to ask ourselves is, how much EV ( expected value ) is there if I call it off and win?

Currently I hold 9% of the chips at the table and if there is $31.10 available well naturally my share as we sit preflop / preblinds is $2.80. If I open/fold my share drops to $2.64 and if I call it off and win my share is $5.60. Of course if I lose my share is nada.
This is why we stress reads because ICM math is based on shoves not open calling off and therefor we now have to know how many times this guy is shoving on us and............... does he even know what ICM is? Probably not.
Is this complicated? Sure is but the more we play and the better reads we develop and take notes the higher chance for profit.

Giddy Up!

Last edited by 19honu62; Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 09:23 AM..
Wed Feb 01, 2012, 09:14 AM
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
As chris said good fold. This was 1 off my leaks a while back calling shoves with any pair and getting knocked out early. I would rather see a flop here then decide whats best for me. If he is a donk player he is probably holding a higher pair or 2 over cards this is how they play poker early on.
Nice fold
Wed Feb 01, 2012, 10:11 AM
ceril12's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 45
Thanks for the quick reply guys

Ye i chose to play it conservative as i felt there would be better spots to get it in.
This was his 2nd 3 bet of the SnG and i just didnt have enough info on him to happily call off.
Then i was thinking maybe i should of shoved pre but i have been experiencing alot of variance doing this in the past so i tend to be more careful shoving PP`s pre now.

Chris when you talk about open raise sizing at Lvl 3 would you recommend like or 2.??

You guys will be glad to know that i actually went on to win this one so that`s an extra bonus to me for the fold

BTW i`ve only started to learn ICM so maybe i need to spend an hour a day learning it and taking notes!!

Thanks again, mucho appreciato!!
Wed Feb 01, 2012, 12:03 PM
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
hey ceril,

you raise 2.5 showing strength and opp reraised all in so just let him win the pot

we are a poker player and not a gambler

wait for a better spot and better hand

good fold
Wed Feb 01, 2012, 02:52 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
Hi Ceril!

I agree with Chris too, especially the part about folding to a 3-bet. Many players often forget about reads than opp would have on themselves, but this definitely can play into our decision making process. For example, if an opp thought that I would always fold to a 3-bet, then they will be shoving much lighter and would give me more of a reason to call.

I would make a standard open here and when an opp that I don't have a very good read on shoves over me, this early in a tourney I will fold a middle pair.
If I had less BB's in my stack, then I'd play it, but even with folding here, I'd still have a very playable stack at this level. There are too many hands in the opp's range that are either in a race or have 99 dominated here, that I wouldn't take the chance since I have a playable stack and can hopefully find a better situation, when I would know that I'm ahead.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner

Wed Feb 01, 2012, 04:06 PM
ceril12's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 45
Ye thanks John, i felt i made the right decision but just wanted some reassurance and advice from you guys.


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