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Shoving 12 BB with a set to stop a draw

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Shoving 12 BB with a set to stop a draw - Wed Feb 01, 2012, 07:00 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Was this a bad shove?

I limped along with a big stack leaving me with 12 BB behind. Flopped a set but worried about the flush draw so shoved all-in for approx 2 x pot bet.

My thinking this gives my opp no pot odds to call. Is this correct, did I miss calculate or the opp just had too many chips to care.



 
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Wed Feb 01, 2012, 07:21 PM
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*** moved to more appropaiate forum since hand requires analysis JWK24***


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Wed Feb 01, 2012, 11:57 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
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Hi ForrestFive!

I would have folded the A5 preflop in this situation, as I would not want to pay the chips to get into the hand, then hit top pair and have to fold due to a low kicker.
I'm not sure what kind of tourney this is, or where I stand in relation to everyone as to stack size (do see that I'm the lowest at this table) and these also could have a significant impact on my decision. If I was going to play the hand, instead of limping along, I would shove here and hopefully get everyone or all but one opp to fold.

The flop is trips with top kicker. The SB min bets and gets two callers before I would act, which now makes the pot 2625. In this situation, I'm shoving here basically every time. There are many worse hands that could call the shove too (9x, flush draw, straight draw) and I would want to make any opp that would draw to beat trips pay here, before they could see a card that can beat me. Shoving is also just over the size of the pot here, so it is a good sizing too.

The opp calls 3275 into a pot of 9475 (34.6%). With a flush draw, the opp most likely thinks that they have 9 outs (36% equity) in their hand.... which would make it a call for them, as their hand equity is 1.4% higher than their pot equity, so it is a +EV call if all 9 outs are good.
However, the opp doesn't know that the A of diamonds is compromised and also the diamond of the same value as what falls on the turn, if it's not a diamond). This gives the opp one less out on the turn and two less outs on the river.
From pokerstove, they really only have 28.1% equity on the flop, which makes thier call a -6.5%EV play.

I like the shove on the flop, although I'd have folded A5 preflop here. The opp also got lucky, as they thought they had made a +EV call, when they really made a -EV call.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Hy! - Thu Feb 02, 2012, 07:54 AM
(#4)
becar1989's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 19
I agree with the moderator! I also little confused with calculating the odds when the money is in the pot. I could count outs and % of getting it on the turn and river but calculating how much i should bet and how much I shold call is little hard right now for me. He shouldn't call you because the odds was against him but you are a short stack and in that situation I will call you too. You don,t want to play A5o with so many limper with your stack. Get a strong hand and then go all in or if you above 10 BB play it regulary but for me depends if opp often calls 3x raise or play tight and fold most they hands if theres is a raise.
 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 01:13 PM
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ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi JWK24,

Thanks for moving the post I got lost in the old hand analysis thread.

The tourney was $1.10 NLHE 6-max with 60 minutes late registration. Got busted 479th out of 808 so was in bad shape by this time.

Bad decisions get worse as I become shorter stacked. I agree folding would be the best option but just hoping for a low straightening flop. If I didn't hit the flop I could fold and then take one more set of blinds and shove from the button - my survival plan.

In this situation I thought it was a dream with a set and top kicker. Thinking no one will call my shove on a draw. I need to find a training session about EV values as I'm just using the poker school pot odds table.

Opp needs pot odds of 2:1 Flush draw plus over cards.

I bet 3575 for opp to win 3575 + 2625 = 6200
6200 / 3575 = 1.7 : 1

Have I just messed up the maths or proved it was a good call?

I'm confused by the EV calculation "opp calls 3275 into a pot of 9475 (34.6%)"?
It was a 3275 call into 6200 which was 26% of opp 13425 stack and still called.

Thanks for the analysis and I have to find that EV training video I remember a reference to slices of pie.

Thanks for the reply becar1989.
 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 01:52 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
I'm confused by the EV calculation "opp calls 3275 into a pot of 9475 (34.6%)"?
It was a 3275 call into 6200 which was 26% of opp 13425 stack and still called.
Hi ForrestFive!

When calculating the pot equity number, you need to add the opp's 3275 into the pot (9475 is the 6200 + the opp's chips they would have to put in, 3275). 3275/9475=34.6% The opp's stack size is not relevant to the pot equity calculation.

Also, here is a link to Dave's (TheLangolier) video section. I'd start with looking at videos 11, 25, 26, 39, 40. Especially the one on Pokerstove (which is where I got the 28.1% number in my original post).

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 02:39 PM
(#7)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
hey forrest,

agree with Sir John,

with 12bb's you need to look for spot of stealing and restealing

no more calling then folding

you flop trips you shove your opp hit his draw on the river

you say nh sir and then register the next game, nothing we can do about it

be happy because your decision was correct just don't look at the results
 

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