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$3.50/45 Turbo: Bubble Question

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$3.50/45 Turbo: Bubble Question - Thu Feb 02, 2012, 03:46 AM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I'm short stacked, out of position, and on the bubble in this 45 man turbo. I have a hand, but no fold equity and there are two other shorties at the table.

Do I play to win and move all in, or do I fold hoping someone will bust before me?



Yes, this is the same 45 man turbo as my previous post. Yes, I've spewed my big stack. Yes, I suck at the 45 turbos

Thanks for helping out!
Roland GTX
 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 11:40 AM
(#2)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
There's a few reasons I think to shove it in here:

1] We're never looking for a mincash. In the long run, the mincash is not going to be profitable since the mincash barely gets us into the next tourney. Two mincashes doesn't make enough money to get into a 3rd tourney for free. If you look at the structure of the 45man, the big money is in the top 3 spots ($20+). As such, I'd rather shove here with the pocket pair and go for a double up, which gives me more fold equity next time, and gives me a far better chance to reach a top 3 finish.

2] Pocket 10 is far above the range of any random two cards the other players may be having. The shorter stack in the lot won't be calling me light, the bigger stacks might, but I actually want one of the big stacks to call me so I can double up. If they happen to have a bigger pair, or an Ace high and hit it, tough luck and better luck next time.

3] The shorter stacks are more unlikely to call me since there's a good chance they don't want to be endangering their own cash in this tourney. There's a good chance they'll be folding their lone aces, maybe even a JJ. The latter of course depending on your read of how tight they've been holding on to their babystacks.

There's a few counterarguments too:

4] We're UTG+1, with 6 players to act behind. It's possible one of them wakes up with a real hand like JJ+ or AK/AQ, in which case were either racing or pretty much drawing to a miracle.

5] The BB already has 25% of his stack into the pot. Technically speaking he's pot committed at this point to call your shove with any two cards. So you're right, little to no fold equity there.

6] The two big stacks behind you have 12/16 blinds behind. They could reshove, but I doubt the 12BB stack will do that with a decent hand, the 16BB stack can afford a shot with les than ideal cards. Your read on the tightness of their play will determine the odds of them mucking or gambling.

As you see, there's something to be said for either option. If it's me, I'm shoving here 100% of the time. I have 3 blinds left (3500) of which 2000 is going into the pot in the next three hands. The chance of getting a hand better than pocket 10s before th
at happens is small, and what anm I willing to shove with if I don't take it here? I don't have the luxury of waiting until I'm in position again, and even if I do wait, there's a chance one of the others will open the pot then and I still won't have a chance to open-shove.

I'm actually not worried about getting called in this spot, I want to get called - stealing the 2400 in the pot is a huge addition to my stack, but I'd rather double my remaining stack and win a 9400 pot to give me a fighting chance. Even if two of them call behind I'll be happy. It'll be harder to win, but I need the chips ...

I think folding in this spot would be very bad poker.

-----------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 12:03 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Roland!

The only time that I ever look for a min cash in these is if I take a beat with 8-10 left, that leaves me with less than 2BB left. If there's enough stacks below me in this situation, then I'm looking just to cash. If there are not enough players blinding out within an orbit, I'm still looking for a hand to shove with. Any other situation, I'm going for a top 3 finish, as that's where the larger cashes are.

In this situation, with less than 3BB left and especially since I'm almost the smallest stack and could easily need to win a hand to get ITM, I'm shoving pocket 10's here everytime.
If everyone folds, then I would add an extra 68% to my stack, if I'm called, pocket 10's is a very playable hand. If one player calls and I'd win the hand, my chip stack would almost triple, to 9464, which sets up a run at the top 3, as I'd just be outside of a top 3 chip position due to this.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 02:48 PM
(#4)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Thanks guys!

I'm happy to see I made the correct decision.

See you at the tables.
(If they get the SnGs up and running that is. Pokerstars is currently "experiencing and issue"... no sngs.)

Roland GTX
 
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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 03:34 PM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
hey roland,

shove it with T's and let the poker gods worry the rest
 

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