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Differentiating between "bad luck" and "bad play"

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Differentiating between "bad luck" and "bad play" - Thu Feb 02, 2012, 06:56 AM
(#1)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi guys. I have two questions regarding analyzing one's stats.

1. What is your approach to differentiate between a run of "bad luck" and "bad play", or "good luck" and "good play" for that matter? Making adjustments to one's game after a string of bad luck is a sure sign of tilt! But, not making adjustments after a string of poor play is just as bad.

2. I review my games weekly in HeM and have been posting HHs here, but feel handcuffed at the moment. I know how to use HeM, but am not sure how to best analyze timing issues such as opening up my game to early or too late.

During the past week of poker I've played 150 tourneys, made a nice profit and joined PSO - all good stuff! However, I have had a dismal week in the $3.50/45 turbos. Yes, I've lost plenty of hands where I was ahead, but I think the problem is one of my own making. I don't think I'm switching gears midgame at the right time, and I am not sure how to analyze this.

Looking closer at the 45 mans played, I've finished between 10th and 18th 23 times, and have an additional 6 bubble boy finishes. Reviewing my hand histories, I am fairly comfortable with the hands I've been shoving (and losing with). The problem seems tied to stack sizes more than starting hands.

In some cases I've been a bit too eager to make all in steals with a big stack vs another big stack. Sometimes protecting your stack is better than a marginal tourney risking steal.

In other cases, I've waited too long to pull the trigger. There are several spots where my M was still survivable, but my Q had dropped below 0.5. My fold equity seems to evaporate past this point.

Any advice on how to Find the sweet spot would be greatly appreciated!

GL and have fun at the tables

Roland GTX
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 03:23 AM
(#2)
aga32_x's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 31
hey roland i know you follow some live training videos, and maybe you have already watched this one, but i saw it the other day and really liked it, so im gonna share with you. It refreshes your memory of what to do and where. It has been working for me so i hope it works for you too http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...session-part-1 there is also a part 2 to this. Good luck
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 07:41 AM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Thanks aga32_x! I thought this post was dead in the water

Your link isn't working, but I'm trying to find it. Do you remember who he author of the video is?

Roland GTX
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 08:59 AM
(#4)
aga32_x's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 31
yea m8 its in the langolier video archive
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 09:01 AM
(#5)
aga32_x's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 31
session 16 and session 17
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 10:31 AM
(#6)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Have you studied the PSO SNG Course? If not do that, then check out my thread:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...se-Cheat-Sheet

I took the PSO's SNG Course and condensed it into a quick reference format. It should help with some of those tricky decisions.

ps. It is a pdf formatted file. Only reason it is zipped is so I could actually upload it to PSO(zip files have higher max file size). If you really want to download the straight pdf I can upload it using a free website and PM you the download link.
 
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Wed Feb 22, 2012, 11:52 AM
(#7)
aga32_x's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 31
rockerguyAA thanx for that "cheat sheet" do you go by it religiously? and do you also follow that same strategy for larger MTT's since it similar to SNG's but with more players. Curious to know thanx
 
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Thu Feb 23, 2012, 02:05 AM
(#8)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by aga32_x View Post
rockerguyAA thanx for that "cheat sheet" do you go by it religiously? and do you also follow that same strategy for larger MTT's since it similar to SNG's but with more players. Curious to know thanx
I don't play SNG's anymore so don't use it at all actually. It is PSO's SNG Course material so no doubt it will be most usefull for SNGs(Sing and Multitable), but I think it could definitely help in MTTs as well.
 
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Sun Feb 26, 2012, 11:18 AM
(#9)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by aga32_x View Post
session 16 and session 17
Thanks! I've gotten through most of the video archive now, and will put those two on top of my to do list.

Red Spade for me tonight

GL

Roland GTX
 

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