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was this a bad bluff attempt

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was this a bad bluff attempt - Thu Feb 02, 2012, 04:35 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
my 5th hand at the table. flop turn villian tanks and i really think if he has a piece its a low piece and he is looking for reasons to fold.

i have about around 50 hands with this guy and is is a loose passive player i can only remember one raise and he shoved to pick up the 7cents on the table.





I know the theory is dont bluff the micros but this guy was making such a case for me.


Grade b


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Thu Feb 02, 2012, 04:57 PM
(#2)
CannonLee's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,418
We bet for 3 reasons:

1. Bet for value
2. Bet to collect dead money
3. Bet to get the better hand to fold(bluff)

What range of hands did you put your opponent on? What range of hands do you think they will fold on that board? Why are they calling the flop and turn.. maybe to bluff catch with a low pocket pair, Ahigh, weak pairs decent kicker? Gonna be interesting to see what everyone has to say.

I like your bluff!



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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 02:37 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Grade B.

I will be really honest, there simply isn't enough info to tell if this was a "good bluff". The factors which go into judging a bluff are so varied that without a lot of info, we are going to find it hard to say if this was good or not.

How well did you mimic your normal value line? and what kind of value might a flop like this bring your normal pre flop open raise range?

The closer you mimic your value bet line, including the "cautious" steps you might take with something like a set when the turn brings 4 straight cards, the better your bluff shot probably is in my opinion.

As played though, when you HAVE fired 2 bullets and sense "weakness", it really is not a great cost to fire the 3rd bullet versus a weak opp. This guy figures to let you know pretty quickly if he is going to give up, and if he did not launch a bet on the 4th straight card, there is a pretty good chance he isn't going to do so.

That river 4 is a blank sort of card, as any hand that it helps was probably not in need of any help already; all it MIGHT have done is given the villain 2 pairs or a set.

So I cannot say I see much wrong in firing the 3rd bullet, especially if you would likely play a draw in this way normally.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 02:44 AM..
 
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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 03:09 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

Honestly with the guys description being loose passive (all be it a small sample) I'm not inclined to 3 barrel him with air hoping to get him off something.... the profile type is generally calling us down too often, I'd rather save the bullets for when I have something and take him to value town.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
How well did you mimic your normal value line? and what kind of value might a flop like this bring your normal pre flop open raise range?

The closer you mimic your value bet line, including the "cautious" steps you might take with something like a set when the turn brings 4 straight cards, the better your bluff shot probably is in my opinion.
The premise is spot on, but I'd add a couple words of caution... first we've only been at the table for 5 hands so he's got no info on what our normal value line might be. While we have 50 hands of data, Mr. Loose-passive is very unlikely to be using a HUD and taking notes properly, so he really is readless we can assume. Second, it's definitely important to tell a consistent story when bluffing but keep in mind this opponent might not even be listening.

Dave


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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 03:17 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Thank you all of you for replies.

When betting I try to use the 3 sliders and currently have mine set for 45% 74% and 98%

When C-betting i would nearly always use the 45% (i might use 98% if i have top top and a 2 to a flush is on board and i really just want them to go away)

Preflop i had him on Q4o + any sonnected cards and any pair.

After the flop I was thinking 2 high cards or made mid / low pair

ditto after turn and on the river.

In Retrospect Not sure why i would even try this this early in to a session, but that may be a reason i'm not doing great in cash games. But at the time i was sure if he didn't improve he would be unable to call on river (mind you I was thinking same on flop too)

(more live training for me and its a good month as Dave is doing the evening sessions on full ring games woohoo)

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 03:20 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi,

Honestly with the guys description being loose passive (all be it a small sample) I'm not inclined to 3 barrel him with air hoping to get him off something.... the profile type is generally calling us down too often, I'd rather save the bullets for when I have something and take him to value town.



The premise is spot on, but I'd add a couple words of caution... first we've only been at the table for 5 hands so he's got no info on what our normal value line might be. While we have 50 hands of data, Mr. Loose-passive is very unlikely to be using a HUD and taking notes properly, so he really is readless we can assume. Second, it's definitely important to tell a consistent story when bluffing but keep in mind this opponent might not even be listening.

Dave
I agree totally Dave...

We simply do not have enough info to really love firing the third barrel here. BUT...

If we were going to have any real hope of winning" this hand, we probably need to fire that 3rd barrel.

I am not sold on the fact we "must" win this hand either though.

The one thing I'd add is this: if we DO get called on the river, and we do lose, the closer we have mimic'ed our intended FUTURE value line, the more likely we are to be called when we barrel 3 times with value next time.

At the very least we CAN take something out of this hand: we either win by taking it down, or we set ourselves up to be dis-believed more often later on when we do have value.

But I totally revert back to my statement at the start; bluffing is such a complex subject that it REALLY takes quite a bit info to get "right". In this hand we cannot really know from the info provided if this is a good spot. When you wake up to potential weakness though, as long as you are aware of what you might take away from this hand, even if you lose, it can have some value for you.

It is a huge risk either way.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 03:25 PM..
 
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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 04:19 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
BUT...

If we were going to have any real hope of winning" this hand, we probably need to fire that 3rd barrel.

I am not sold on the fact we "must" win this hand either though.
Sure, the only hand we beat in a showdown is QJ (which is actually in his range but this is very marginal showdown value since most of his range beats us).

That doesn't mean we should automatically try it though, which brings up a great point (thanks for raising it Dave!)... sometimes players make this bluff because it's the only way they can win the hand (I have been guilty of this myself before) but that alone not a good reason to bluff. We should look at the maths and decide if a bluff is profitable or not.

In this case we are risking .56c to win a pot of 1.23, so we need him to fold about 1/3rd of the time. If for example we were up against a horrific calling station, then that player isn't folding anywhere near this often on a blank river after calling the turn on this board (in fact they are probably only folding exactly the 1 hand we beat, QJ), so bluffing would be hugely -EV.

In the case of this actual hand, like you note, our info is pretty limited so it's hard to estimate how often this guy is folding the river... but in general vs. a LP guy I don't like barreling off as they tend to call a lot. I would actually check back the turn and just give up vs. most LP guys, we beat these guys by value towning them, not bluffing.

Quote:
The one thing I'd add is this: if we DO get called on the river, and we do lose, the closer we have mimic'ed our intended FUTURE value line, the more likely we are to be called when we barrel 3 times with value next time.
This is a great point too, if we get looked up at least we better be prepared to 3-barrel our value hands all day long against this guy, and anyone else we figure is paying attention, as we'll rate to get looser action after they see this.

Dave


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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 06:17 PM
(#8)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
hi b im thinking the opp actually was trying to be clever and actually had a hand,somethng like aq maybe,and then decided to fish for his ace.His calls were not a strong play rather passive in my opinion so yes i would of had a gamble on the river with a bluff.
im sure a loose opp if he had hit would not be able help himself but to raise.
Could be wrong but cannot see anything else in the play to suggest anything else to me.
great bluff b.
 
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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 07:59 PM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Sure, the only hand we beat in a showdown is QJ (which is actually in his range but this is very marginal showdown value since most of his range beats us).

That doesn't mean we should automatically try it though, which brings up a great point (thanks for raising it Dave!)... sometimes players make this bluff because it's the only way they can win the hand (I have been guilty of this myself before) but that alone not a good reason to bluff. We should look at the maths and decide if a bluff is profitable or not.

In this case we are risking .56c to win a pot of 1.23, so we need him to fold about 1/3rd of the time. If for example we were up against a horrific calling station, then that player isn't folding anywhere near this often on a blank river after calling the turn on this board (in fact they are probably only folding exactly the 1 hand we beat, QJ), so bluffing would be hugely -EV.

In the case of this actual hand, like you note, our info is pretty limited so it's hard to estimate how often this guy is folding the river... but in general vs. a LP guy I don't like barreling off as they tend to call a lot. I would actually check back the turn and just give up vs. most LP guys, we beat these guys by value towning them, not bluffing.



This is a great point too, if we get looked up at least we better be prepared to 3-barrel our value hands all day long against this guy, and anyone else we figure is paying attention, as we'll rate to get looser action after they see this.

Dave
The main reason I keep going back to the complexity of bluffing is that, as Dave points out, THIS bluff needs to work at lest 1/3rd of the time. But what if we bet more?

The fact is, the bigger the bluff, the more often it will tend to work. Unfortunately, when a big bluff does not work, it tends to cost you a lot more; this is the genesis of the old saying, "An all in works every time except once."

To really love firing this final bullet, I would much prefer info on this particular villain's "pressure points" for certain hands in his call range.

Even calling station type players will have a certain point past which they are reluctant to call on boards that look like they may be beat with their 2nd or 3rd pair call downs. Once you identify that point, bluffing becomes a lot simpler versus someone who will call light; it is still better to NOT try bluffing these players, but if you do you can choose to start earlier and bet an amount they are more likely to fold to. Without that info though, you run the risk this guy will sheriff you with a bad pair that has no business calling.

To my way of thinking, a bluff is never a time to "play it safe". If you bluff too small, you will simply waste chips when the villain finds the nerve to call. This river bet feels a little bit like a "play it safe" bet, as I will be 100% honest, if I had a straight here and a villain called me down on 2 streets, I'm pretty sure I am going for more value; if you'd value bet more, then you probably should also BLUFF for more (if you are going to bluff).

If you want to "play it safe", you are probably better off not bluffing at all.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 08:01 PM..
 
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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 09:57 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
.
im sure a loose opp if he had hit would not be able help himself but to raise.
Looseness has nothing to do with the inclination to raise... that's the passive/aggressive scale. A super loose-passive might not raise with hands as strong as a ten high straight. A super loose-aggressive (LAG) opponent might raise as weak as 1 pair.


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