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5nl 6max 89o did i overplay trips?

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5nl 6max 89o did i overplay trips? - Fri Feb 03, 2012, 06:04 AM
(#1)
Nashy1996's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 164
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Hi everyone,

just wanted to get everyone's thoughts on this hand.
my opponent had a vpip:46 pfr:28 and a aggro factor of 67 from 27 hands, which i know isn't a large sample but he was quite active.
I feel like during this hand i can get value from top pair hands,slow played overpairs,flush draws and others.The board texture obviously wasnt the best, but thats part of the reason why i raised on the turn in which he flatted.
On the river he made a donk bet which i didn't really know what to make of, but i shoved allin over the top which was a pot sized bet anyway.
So as my title says did i overplay my trips or did i make the bets and raises i needed to for value and to protect my holdings.
Thanks guys
 
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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 09:32 AM
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deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! Nashy,

I am no expert but here is what I think. There is a saying in poker that don't go broke in a limped pot. I am not suggesting that this is the case in this particular case but you have to be cautious in limped pots.

Since this is a limped pot the opp's range is pretty wide here but I think there are a lot hands in that range that has us beat. The opp could easily have 8,6 or J,8 and in some cases even 9 with a better kicker. You said that the opp is aggressive but is he really making that play with a top pair or an over pair or a flush draw, possibly but I am not convinced given the action on the turn. He did 3bet on the turn and then flat call your 4bet so he could have easily filled up on the turn w/ 10,9 or 7,9 (10,9 & 7,9 could be part of his range in this spot) as he lead into you with a weak bet which can be a sign of strength sometimes.

Given the action on the turn I think I would flat call the 3bet for pot control and evaluate the situation on the river. As our hand is good but it is not unbeatable.

It would be interesting to see the outcome of the hand and see what others think about it. I could be way off mark here but the action on the turn indicates that we are beat more often than not.

Cheers.
 
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Fri Feb 03, 2012, 10:35 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nashy1996 View Post
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner






Hi everyone,

just wanted to get everyone's thoughts on this hand.
my opponent had a vpip:46 pfr:28 and a aggro factor of 67 from 27 hands, which i know isn't a large sample but he was quite active.
I feel like during this hand i can get value from top pair hands,slow played overpairs,flush draws and others.The board texture obviously wasnt the best, but thats part of the reason why i raised on the turn in which he flatted.
On the river he made a donk bet which i didn't really know what to make of, but i shoved allin over the top which was a pot sized bet anyway.
So as my title says did i overplay my trips or did i make the bets and raises i needed to for value and to protect my holdings.
Thanks guys
Hi Nashy,

Given your reads, I do not necessarily think you over played. Of course, the real question should then be: were your reads good?

It strikes me that even a very loose and aggro player may wake up to the fact you could have a 9 in your hand with the action pattern on the turn. While he is not necessarily folding his draws at that point (because he is so loose per your read info), on the river he probably is going to feel beaten far more often than not if draws didn't get there. Even an aggro-donk will tend to give up on busted draws with no further chance to improve, so you can forget busted draws paying you off on the river in my opinion...

I'd also strongly suspect that the 9 represents enough of a "threat" to top pair or over pair hands here, that at least some aggro-donks will slow way down on the river. A bet/fold line is a possibility if he has any ability to get away.

The thing I cannot really "argue" with is your READ, which is that this guy could call off with just an over pair or top pair hand; You were there, I wasn't, so if you say he will...then we gotta think he will. That alone turns the decision of whether to call or shove into this:

Hands that beat you:

- Any set that boated (TT/88/7722).
- Any 92/97
- Any T9+
- Any 86/J8

All these are going to insta-call the river.

Hands that you beat:

- Any pp JJ+ (any over pair looks like gold to an aggro-donk)
- Any AT/KT/QT/JT ("strong" top pairs, in the view of an aggro-donk. Either strong because of kicker, or draw potential).
- Any T7/T8 (flopped 2 pair or a draw and top pair, and he could be reluctant to give up).

Some of these may well bet/fold the river if you jam.

So to me Nashy, I think your river bet probably is a bit of an over-play. You really are not folding out BETTER hands that your 9 very often at all, and it would be somewhat thin value to bet trips on the river, and I would prefer a flat myself in this already pretty fat pot. The villain withstood your turn "pressure" quite well, so he can easily be on a hand quite a bit stronger than what your reads tell you.

But since you were there, if you say he will play this way with top pairs and over pairs, we have to give credit to that too. While I'd prefer to flat the lead on the river after the action of the turn, I can at least see why you might just jam all in for value given your info...

But my take on the info you had might be a little different.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 11:07 AM..
 

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