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Did I play this well?

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Did I play this well? - Sat Feb 04, 2012, 10:39 AM
(#1)
etipac's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 116
Everyone folds and the button makes a raise... Stats on raiser are that he is a tag but from the button he raises 40% so I do think a jk off is good enough... Did I play it bad or maybe I had to fold before? or when, thanks. For about an hour I played against him and he always nearly raised and betted the flop and turn too...



Etienne
 
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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 11:52 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Etienne!

In my opinion, given that you have seen a 40% raise rate on the button by this guy, you can certainly flat KJo in the SB. You could also think about 3betting.

Of course I must note, KJo is not going to be a "great" hand versus this aggressive button player, and the depth of money is such that you may find it hard to play a top pair oop. While your holding does stand to be decent versus what is probably quite a wide range, a 3bet may be a bit loose pre flop since per your read this guy tends to "bang" the button HARD, and he will continue to do so. Much like an AK oop versus a raise and a small 3bet, I think overall I'd prefer to flat as you do here.

On the flop, when you flop the gut shot, I do not mind your check. You really do not "hate" a free card if the villain will give you one. Everything you have in the way of info says he is un-likely to give that free card though. I'm not sure I like the CALL though when the villain does bet after you check.

In this spot you have no real clue whether a K or J will be enough of a hit to win you the pot, as there are a lot of weak Aces this opp may be raising/betting. If you do hit either of these cards though, you are probably going to have to treat them like they are "winners" and a least continue calling. As such, I think I'd de-value the 6 outs you have a bit, and consider the worth only about 3 outs total. Adding in your 4 "clean" outs (the Q's), that gives you a total of 7 outs.

With 47 unknown cards going to the turn, that means you have about 7 / 47 = 14.9% chance to make the best hand on the turn (before the villain likely bets again). You need about 5.7 to 1 odds to make this call worthwhile. There is 66c in the pot, and you are facing a call of 27c, thus you are only getting 2.44 to 1 to call.

Since you really are going to find it hard (with the A on the flop) to take the lead with a K or a J spike, it will be tough to extract your "make up" in implied odds on those hits. Sure, the villain is going to keep betting at you, and your K or J MIGHT be good, but since you cannot really take the betting lead on almost half your "outs", I must really think you'd have been better off folding this flop.

In my opinion Etienne, flatting pre flop versus this aggro player is fine as long as you maintain a "fit or fold" mentality in your play. Had you spiked a pair on the flop, even 2nd pair, there probably would have been enough reason to continue versus his aggro BTN play, but a gut shot plus a DRAW to 2nd board pair, is really not strong enough to keep playing versus his aggro patterns; it will simply cost you too much to call.

This flop really did not "fit" you well enough to hang around, so I think it probably should have been a "fold", before it starts to cost you too much.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 12:17 PM..
 

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