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Need an analysis here.

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Need an analysis here. - Sat Feb 04, 2012, 08:01 PM
(#1)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
So I think I played this right dispite it being my knock out hand in The Big $4.40 tonight.

So here's the details I have going into this:

Villan's VPIP/PFR: 40/40
Mine: 15/10

Here's the hand:



The draw was in his range obviously enough, but not definate, but I bet big enough to push him off of it. I think his call was wrong. But my bet on the flop had me committed and the Turned 2 pair definately commited me as far as I can tell, but looking forward to other opinions.
 
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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 08:07 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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***moved to tourney HA section since member wants the hand analyzed JWK24***


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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 08:35 PM
(#3)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Sorry, still getting used to the new set up!
 
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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 08:39 PM
(#4)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
hi bandshooter,i think the preflop bet was a little weak,maybe a shove would of got through or a bigger bet.
the flop yes i think the opp once checked,was not willing to c-bet the draw so why call a bet from you?
that seems a little backwards to me,yes your bet on the flop was a solid bet he should have put you on the king and folded,fished for his chips and nether considered other hands you may have like kk so could have the set or even a bigger draw.
the turn well i think you knew and just were disheartened lol hope this helps some way.
I personally think you out played him and he got his out.
 
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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 08:42 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Are you in the money yet?

Is the villian likely to fold if they miss the flop?

I don't like playing KT out of position against a villian that hates folding with a stack to put me out.

(i still do it thought)

Grade b

On the flop I still could be dead to KJ or better let alone the Flush. With your chip stack you are commited as soon as you put in those chips preflop so you could have shoved prefloped and asked the question there and then.

Grade b


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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 09:32 PM
(#6)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Hey Bandshooter,
I Prob would have played it the same as you did.
The only thing I might of done different (might not of too) was shove the flop,
Although you priced him out of his draw dosn't mean he's not going to chase it.
All your chips were going in any way, you may as well charge him the max to chase.
On your stack size you had to make a stand soon anyway,
So all up just unlucky this time.
chuckkky
 
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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 11:43 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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Hi BandShooter!

With a looser opp in the BB, I like the open-raise from the button (although I could easily make a case for shoving preflop here too). If I was playing the hand, I would be making a std open raise here too (I'm assuming that the amount here was the std raise for this blind level).

On the flop, with top pair, when the opp checks, I would make a c-bet and I would use 1/2 pot as the sizing of it. This would price out a flush draw as long as I made another bet on the turn.

The way it played out, the opp had to call 1696 into a pot that would be 5962 (28.4%). If the opp thought that we would check the turn.... they are getting the right price to call, as 9 outs to the flush has 36% equity if there is no betting on the turn. If I bet the turn too and use an amount over 20% of the end pot to price them out there too, then the opp IS priced out.

The turn 10 is one of the worst cards to fall on the turn, as it completes both a flush and two straights and all of them are well within the opp's range. When the opp checks here, I would check behind and see if the river would improve the two pair. With the turn completing almost all of the draws, I'd want to make sure I hit a full house before I put my tourney life on the line since two pair can very easily be behind at this point.

The river doesn't improve the two pair. If the opp shoves, then with about 7.5BB left (8+BB with my 1/2 pot bet on the flop), I'm not going to risk it here when I most likely have the worst hand. I'll muck and find another hand to shove with.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Feb 04, 2012, 11:45 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BandShooter View Post
Sorry, still getting used to the new set up!
Not a problem BandShooter. We're here to help.

John (JWK24)


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Sun Feb 05, 2012, 12:51 AM
(#9)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
@ JWK.

When we turn 2 pair and the pot is twice the size as our stack, Surely we are pot committed and have to push the rest in. He could have a straight or flush but if we fold were crippled anway.
The way the hand was played would you just give up on the Turn?
 
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Sun Feb 05, 2012, 01:07 AM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
@ JWK.

When we turn 2 pair and the pot is twice the size as our stack, Surely we are pot committed and have to push the rest in. He could have a straight or flush but if we fold were crippled anway.
The way the hand was played would you just give up on the Turn?
Hi Chuckkky!

I wouldn't give up the hand on the turn, but I'd check behind to see if I would hit the river, as I wouldn't want to shove the rest of my chips in when I knew that I most likely didn't have the best hand. I also wouldn't be crippled, as I'd still have about 8BB left.
Especially in torunies, I'll take the smaller stack and still have a chance to be in the tourney, over shoving when I'm most likely a big underdog in the hand.
With an 8BB stack, I've still got a little bit of time to be able to find a hand to double up with and I think that's a better alternative than to be most likely on the rail with the worst hand.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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