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anyone got any ideas how to get some luck

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anyone got any ideas how to get some luck - Mon Feb 06, 2012, 06:04 PM
(#1)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
here is todays rant

blinds 400/800

my stack 8910 villains 21000


here goes 1920 in the pot before the flop

I am dealt AK of diamonds UTG and raise to 1600 everyone folds to the BB who calls


flop

3d 4d 7s


BB dets 1600 into 3520 i re raise all and get an instant call

BB turns over A3 of hearts


bottom pair and now draw

I miss my flush and are out .



Heres the point BB said she called pre coz she was getting pot odds and was suited ; fair enough on the pot odds , and we all know how easy it is to flop flushes or even make a flush . But on the flop there is no way she can call with bottom pair and no draw given my range . If she had been paying attention she would have noticed that when raising grom UTG i had showndown AKs twice ,AA , KK and QQ twicw and AQs . So given my range from that position , calling with bottom pair is a joke , and dont mention her stack , it is still a joke . Incidentally , she put me on a range of exactly AK ( fair guess ) , but like most folk in this league the only hand they ever consider in a person's range seems to be AK . Now if you consider that i could be raising with pockets down to 7s which is quite likely at this stage , she is not even flipping when i shove on the flop .

Oh well take it on the chin , got busted by another donk ; another month same old shite.


Darkman , if you read this , yes this is the latest in my long list of wind ups .

Last edited by TOO2COO; Mon Feb 06, 2012 at 08:08 PM.. Reason: Title Change
 
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Mon Feb 06, 2012, 07:00 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,812
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Frasier!

I'd have just called on the flop and re-evaluated on the turn. Yes AKs has a bunch of outs, but at this point, it's still just ace high.
If I were the opp and put you on any A with a broadway card (which obviously misses with this flop), I'd have highly considered calling too, as by having A3 and a pair of 3's, your ace outs are counterfeited which would only give you three outs to beat me (12 if you had the flush too).
A3h here is actually a 52%-48% coin flip favorite.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 08:09 AM
(#3)
Pentire's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 117
Your M was 4.5 and you had 11 BBs left.

This is an obvious shove from under the gun.

Either:

a) You are called and are no worse than 50/50 against your opponent (unless he has AA or KK which are both less likely than normal as only 3 of each are left in the deck).

b) Everyone folds (You have loads of fold equity at 11BBs) and you increase your stack by about 22%, buying an orbit in the process.
 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 08:33 AM
(#4)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
[warning: slightly off-topic - but, consider the title]

You just made me realise I missed a hell of a chance yesterday :)
I went with a friend to the middle of the island to get some wood - coldest winter since 1956 apparently.
We were happily chainsawing away at a carob tree (great burning wood) when I realised this rabbit was looking at me from beneath the roots, really scared at the saw's noise.

So we got it out and let it go. It just plopped to the ground and didn't move. It didn't look wounded, and was really kicking the back legs when picked up... go figure.

So we put it in the middle of the field, see what it did... just laid there. So my friend said, shall we kill it, and I can cook it up (he's got a restaurant). I said, nah, it's really small, by the time you flay it, gut it, and all, so little meat for so much work. The hawk will get it (there was one circling not long before).
So we just left it.

And now I just realised. We should have killed it, he could have cooked it, and I could have got the feet. Guaranteed Sunday Storm and Million final tables, right?
How stupid of me :/
 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 08:53 AM
(#5)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Definitely a shove spot
 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 09:02 AM
(#6)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Sens Fan View Post
Definitely a shove spot
The rabbit?
Nah, it was really small ;)
 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 05:23 PM
(#7)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
See?-)

 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 08:29 PM
(#8)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams
anyone got any ideas how to get some luck
Since no one has addressed this question I thought I'd give it a go.

Some one in ancient Rome has been oft quoted since he first said "Luck is when preparation meets opportunity."

If you have read some of my posts you should have noticed that I believe in focusing on Good Decisions at the poker table and let the results take care of themselves. In the context of the quote above Good Decisions are the preparation. The opportunity is when you are up against a player who does not make good decisions. When that happens you come out ahead in the long run. Unfortunately the long run is measured in tens of thousands of hands.

So to bring yourself some luck prepare by honing your decision making skills. Seek opportunities against those who do not have the discipline to make good decisions. Then the good results you seek will surely follow.

Good Decisions,


Joe
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 04:58 PM
(#9)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi Frasier!

I'd have just called on the flop and re-evaluated on the turn. Yes AKs has a bunch of outs, but at this point, it's still just ace high.
If I were the opp and put you on any A with a broadway card (which obviously misses with this flop), I'd have highly considered calling too, as by having A3 and a pair of 3's, your ace outs are counterfeited which would only give you three outs to beat me (12 if you had the flush too).
A3h here is actually a 52%-48% coin flip favorite.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

It is east to analyze a hand when you say the cards and use Pokerstove or what ever after the event .My raznge from UTG is more than AK , and given the blinds it is more probable that i have an overpair , and if you factor in the flush draw A3 is a big dog in this spot . But it seems that when other players consider range the only hand they ever put you on is AK . A3 is a bad call here .

As for TrumpinJoe , it is all well and good going on about making good decisions , but when good decisions are continually lead to you losing it is pretty hard to take .

I could show you all the times from my HH on pokerstars all the times i have AA all in heads up pre flop and lost ; it is aprrox. 91%

AK vs a pair all in Hu pre flop lose 77%

pair vs Ak all in HU pre lose 59%


i have been playing here for 4 years , and the number of times i get it in with the best hand , including on the flop and turn , then lose is unbelievable . So , ok it is good to know you are making good decisions but when nothing comes of it , it a pain in the arse .

After losing with AK vs Ax for the nth time i went back through my HH to check my stats regarding AK vs Ax all in HU pre flop . i have an amazing win rate of 2.93 % in those situations .

Come on the long run .

Last edited by frasierbeams; Sat Feb 11, 2012 at 09:39 PM.. Reason: update
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 07:03 PM
(#10)
AlUnders's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 41
BronzeStar
All I say if u werent prepared to fold in the first place, you should have gone all in, especially with a big stack on the BB. You obviously wanted some action and flopped out, you should have folded. She had the stack, you didnt.
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 07:47 PM
(#11)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
show us those stats please
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 08:32 PM
(#12)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
All in pre HU with AA and you've LOST 91%???!!!

I call BS.

So show us...


Since you asked for help and then slammed JW and Joe for giving you that,I'll make the villain's play that you are complaining about so much my focus.

So you're saying there was 3520 in the pot pre-flop when you and here were done betting. That means that she called 800 into a pot of 2720 pre-flop correct? (You explained this a bit fuzzy so if I'm off I apologize...).Well I have zero complaints with her call pre---she's getting better than 3-1 on her money so she SHOULD be calling a wide range here. A3 fits.

Then she opens for 1600 into a 3520 pot after the flop. And you ship over the top.So it's what...about 7000 more for her to call? That's close and in her case I probably fold the hand but she only has to be right around 40-45% of the time here to be on the right side of this call and since she's ahead of a fair piece of your range it's not a great call by her,but certainly NOT a donk call.

After that,I'm sorry but instead of you complaining that she didn't respect your range when she called your ship I would tend to focus on YOU not respecting that she has caught some piece of this flop when she raised. Is her bet sizing bad here? Meh,yeah probably. But when YOU didn't ship the AK pre-flop (UTG and 11bb's that's an automatic ship to me,unless there are considerations as to the bubble or something else that you aren't sharing here...) you set this series of events in motion.

You played AK as a fit or fold hand here frasier and when she showed that she had a piece of the flop you should have either called or folded. You tried to bluff her off of it by making a play that many make over and over again with AK---not accepting the fact that a lesser hand called you pre-flop and then shoving over top when they show you that they caught a piece and so they now have the lead.

Could they put you on other hands that they should be folding to? SHOULD they put you on other hands that they should be folding to? Yeah,maybe. But we ARE plying our trade in freerolls and micro games here. Do you really want to hang your tournament life on a player being that astute in hand ranging and fold equity instead of being more of a "I have a pair,I'm golden" player?

Bad players tend to tell you when they have it. If she's the bad player you make her out to be she did here. And you decide to THEN put her in a spot to make a more advanced play and know that she should (to your way of thinking) be giving you credit for a better hand? You're wanting her to basically contradict her own play to do what you wished she had done here frasier. If you think someone is bad then give them credit for being bad. Which means if you think that making the call is a donk play and you think she's a donk then you should play expecting her to call a shove. So why do it then?

Really Pentire and Da Sens Fan already have nailed the problem here anyway...your chips needed to be in the middle pre-flop. AK UTG with 11bb's (or M4.5 if you prefer...) should be a ship.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 08:36 PM..
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 08:34 PM
(#13)
Pentire's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 117
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
It is east to analyze a hand when you say the cards and use Pokerstove or what ever after the event .My raznge from UTG is more than AK , and given the blinds it is more probable that i have an overpair , and if you factor in the flush draw A3 is a big dog in this spot . But it seems that when other players consider range the only hand they ever put you on is AK . A3 is a bad call here .

As for TrumpinJoe , it is all well and good going on about making good decisions , but when good decisions are continually lead to you losing it is pretty hard to take .

I could show you all the times from my HH on pokerstars all the times i have AA all in heads up pre flop and lost ; it is aprrox. 91%

AK vs a pair all in Hu pre flop lose 77%

pair vs Ak all in HU pre lose 59%


i have been playing here for 4 years , and the number of times i get it in with the best hand , including on the flop and turn , then lose is unbelievable . So , ok it is good to know you are making good decisions but when nothing comes of it , it a pain in the arse .
You did not make a good decision. You are completely ignoring stack sizes, blind depths and M.

You had fold equity if you had utilised your whole stack preflop.
 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 09:43 AM
(#14)
akisno's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
If she had been paying attention she would have noticed that when raising grom UTG i had showndown AKs twice ,AA , KK and QQ twicw and AQs . So given my range from that position , calling with bottom pair is a joke , and dont mention her stack , it is still a joke . Incidentally , she put me on a range of exactly AK ( fair guess ) , but like most folk in this league the only hand they ever consider in a person's range seems to be AK .
As stated push pre, get the dead money, gg.
Broadways vs monsters see hands % distributions.
 
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Sun Feb 12, 2012, 10:08 PM
(#15)
frasierbeams's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 145
totalt no. of hands dealt :- 381229

no, of NLHE hands :- 315657

no. of times dealt AA :- 10092

no. of times allin HU
pre flop with AA :- 3187

no. of times allin HU
preflop with AA and
win :- 290



which translates to 90.9005 % or approximately 91% .
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 12:34 AM
(#16)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
totalt no. of hands dealt :- 381229

no, of NLHE hands :- 315657

no. of times dealt AA :- 10092

no. of times allin HU
pre flop with AA :- 3187

You need to count all of your hands, not just the ones where you were heads up preflop.

no. of times allin HU
preflop with AA and
win :- 290

which translates to 90.9005 % or approximately 91% .
Have you ever heard the expression "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure"? I am not calling you a liar here, just pointing out that your calculation is flawed. In order for the standard percentages to apply, you need to include all hands that you won with Aces.

There is no guarantee that those percentages will apply in a heads up situation, or any other specific situation, only that OVERALL a certain win rate will apply. A 91% loss rate heads up is definitely an anomaly, but you might have a win rate over the next 300K hands that evens this out.

The bottom line is, the only thing you control is your decisions. I know it sucks when you make the right one and still lose, but if you can't handle this then maybe poker isn't the game for you.

 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 12:49 AM
(#17)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
totalt no. of hands dealt :- 381229

no, of NLHE hands :- 315657

no. of times dealt AA :- 10092

no. of times allin HU
pre flop with AA :- 3187

no. of times allin HU
preflop with AA and
win :- 290



which translates to 90.9005 % or approximately 91% .

You get challenged to SHOW your stats proving your bogus claim and you TYPE this drivel in? Really?

Dude you don't need an idea,you need a clue.


Fraiser,you have complained in another thread about people trying to help other players in this forum being a bunch of...well,you know what you said,I would rather not repeat it...and then you post this nonsense. People came in here and honestly tried to answer your question,to which you responded by getting defensive and then making a bogus claim. Roomik and I called you on that and you reinforce this by telling a lie that even a 5 year old would be embarrassed to have been responsible to have fabricated.

You state here that in 315,657 hands of NLHE played that you have been dealt AA 10,092 times. As soon as I saw those numbers I knew that you were full of it,as it was easy to glance at them and estimate that as AA once in every 30ish hands or so.

These are the exact numbers...315,657/10,092= 31.277...AA once every 31.28 hands.

Or if you like 10,092/315,657=0.03197...3.2% roughly.

Frasier,the rest of the NLHE playing universe that is NOT you gets dealt AA 0.45% of the time. Or,again if you prefer,ONCE every 221 hands.

So you are really asking us to believe that you get dealt AA SEVEN times more frequently than the rest of the players in the world.

And then,after having been christened as the single luckiest player in the history of poker pre-flop,you somehow,through osmosis,a curse,the RNG screwing you or I don't know what...you LOSE 90% of the time that you get you AA hands into a HU situation?

Almost a complete REVERSAL of the odds that the rest of us are so...well fortunate I guess...to see them win at?

THIS is your story? I mean you're really going to go with it?

Okie Dokie...
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 12:56 AM
(#18)
brkn80's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 440
Quote:
Originally Posted by frasierbeams View Post
totalt no. of hands dealt :- 381229

no, of NLHE hands :- 315657

no. of times dealt AA :- 10092

no. of times allin HU
pre flop with AA :- 3187

no. of times allin HU
preflop with AA and
win :- 290



which translates to 90.9005 % or approximately 91% .

I only wish I would get dealt AA 1 out of every 40 hands (approx.) and that being the case I sure as hell woulda figure out a way to win with them by now.
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 01:01 AM
(#19)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
Have you ever heard the expression "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure"? I am not calling you a liar here, just pointing out that your calculation is flawed. In order for the standard percentages to apply, you need to include all hands that you won with Aces.

There is no guarantee that those percentages will apply in a heads up situation, or any other specific situation, only that OVERALL a certain win rate will apply. A 91% loss rate heads up is definitely an anomaly, but you might have a win rate over the next 300K hands that evens this out.

The bottom line is, the only thing you control is your decisions. I know it sucks when you make the right one and still lose, but if you can't handle this then maybe poker isn't the game for you.


Joy,I love ya hon and I know that you're trying (as you always do...) to be more...gentle,shall we say...in your response here than I,but monkeys flying out of my butt would be LESS of an anomaly than believing he's lost 90% of the time with AA in a HU spot over 3187 hands.

There's a pretty good movie came out a year or so ago with Ben Affleck in it (he directed as well) about a gang of armored car and bank robbers in the Charlestown section of Boston called "The Town".

There's one scene in it when the locals and the Feds are pressing Affleck's character in the sweat box and after schooling them on how easily he see's through their BS he tells them how little kids in his neighborhood know from an early age how to tell the difference between the radio antennae on federal,state and local police cars.

"The next time you want to be clever," he says to them,"try to be more clever than a 5 year old."

Something maybe Frasier should think on.
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 08:37 AM
(#20)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
.... not worth it.....
 

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