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PS premier league 3500-7000 blinds

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PS premier league 3500-7000 blinds - Mon Feb 06, 2012, 07:20 PM
(#1)
grampex's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 37
In big blind 7000 holding 5 10 off suit and having 27000 behind, small stack raised all in to 17000 and all folded to me. If I fold, then sit 13 of 13, if I call and lose, then sit 13 of 13 with 10000 less chips. Called and villain found with pocket 2's and when I hit a 5 on the river moved up and eventually finished 3rd (after real dumb play on last hand that I won't even mention).
Result good, but what is the analysis by numbers and such. Thank you in advance.
 
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Mon Feb 06, 2012, 11:36 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Hi grampex!

To get the exact odds, I'd need to know how many chips are in the pot (how many at the table and what were the blinds/antes). There will be 10.5k from the blinds, but I really need to know how many were there for the ante amount.

When the SB shoves, the pot goes to 24k plus antes. To call in this situation, I'd need to put 10k more into a pot that will be 34k+antes. This will be somewhere near 28% equity (give or take a percent or 2 due to the number at the table).

5 10 off has these hand equities against one opp
ATC: 44%
top 60% hand (what I need to put in to get 22 to be in the range): 35%
top 20% hand: 28%

A read on the opp here would really help. If the opp was playing very tight, then their range will be less than a top 20% hand, so I would fold, as it would be a -EV play.
If the opp was playing looser, then the hand equity for 5 10 off will be higher than the pot equity, so it would be a call.

With this being a league game, where every placing is more points for the end of the month (the main and only goal for league games), unless I had a read on the opp that they were playing loose, then I'm going to muck 5 10 off here. If the opp was playing a large number of hands (being looser) then it's going to be a call for me. The read on the opp would be the key.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 12:28 AM
(#3)
grampex's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 37
Thank you JWK24, 4200 in antes, 31,900 in pot, 10200 to call. Not a call I have normally made but fold leaves me 27000 and last, call and loss leaves me 17000 and last. Villain was not being loose, but UTG raises are ridiculously frequent in league with little and guessed I was about 4-1 dog at worst and getting 3-1. Negative EV expected at very best of course. Had no real read on villain. I am not surprised you would recommend fold, I would too. Was just wondering about the math. Am I right at about 4-1 at worst.
 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 12:42 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi grampex!

If the opp was playing tight, it would be closer to 5-1 than 4-1 (4.6-1).

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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short stack already with <4bb - Tue Feb 07, 2012, 07:18 PM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by grampex View Post
Thank you JWK24, 4200 in antes, 31,900 in pot, 10200 to call. Not a call I have normally made but fold leaves me 27000 and last, call and loss leaves me 17000 and last. Villain was not being loose, but UTG raises are ridiculously frequent in league with little and guessed I was about 4-1 dog at worst and getting 3-1. Negative EV expected at very best of course. Had no real read on villain. I am not surprised you would recommend fold, I would too. Was just wondering about the math. Am I right at about 4-1 at worst.
Not sure what the point spread is toward the end of a PSO league game. But, you only have a <4BB stack, and presently low man at the table (if you fold). There is so much ‘dead money’ in the pot, that calling is giving you 3:1 odds. You are calling the wide range of a shorter stack (2.5BB) from UTG. Even if he has two over cards to your T5s, you still have at least 36% equity. You have to hope he doesn’t have an over pair to your hand, or have you dominated (small percentage of the hands he’s forced to shove in this spot). For the price you need to invest (1.5BB), and the terrible position you are already in… this is an easy call!
 
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Than you for input - Wed Feb 08, 2012, 01:45 PM
(#6)
grampex's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 37
Thank-you king_spadez, this is the type of thought that I was using when I called. Certainly could not have expected as favourable a situation as I got and therefore expected needing a near miracle, but folding would not have made it much different, still needed a near miracle and would still have that chance of a miracle if I called and lost.
 

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