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10NL Q,Jo vs unknown opp OOP

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10NL Q,Jo vs unknown opp OOP - Tue Feb 07, 2012, 11:59 AM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! guys, The opp had been on the table for 9 hands prior to this one and had not got involved in a hand yet apart from the one on his BB which he check folded on the flop. This was the first hand he got involved in and I have never played against this opp before so there are no reads on the opp.



Given that I had no reads on the opp and being OOP I almost folded on the flop. After tanking for a while such a huge raise didn't make sense to me. I could possibly be a value raise but it looked more like a big draw so the opp would have been happy to take the pot there and then. So I put the opp on flush or straight draw.

Although in the end it worked out as the opp folded on the river, but it was really awkward situation on the flop and turn. Should I have avoided being in that spot by just folding on the flop given I had no reads on the opp and being OOP?

Essentially I think I turned my hand into a bluff on the river. Given that all the draws missed on the river should it have been a better line to check to induce bluff or maybe bet slightly smaller?

Cheers.

Last edited by deadeyz; Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 12:03 PM.. Reason: amend
 
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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 12:14 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hi Dedeyez.

Unlike your hand against an unknown opp where you were 3bet pre flop, in this spot you do not get raised until the flop. That allows you to assess the board texture, as well as the strength of your hand here. Let's take a look...

FLOP:

You hit top pair/middle kicker, but with a Qd and 9d on the board.
You lead for a bit under half pot, and get RAISED an additional $1.15.
In my opinion, there are 3 things we have to consider...

1) Is our top pair/ middle kicker good?
Without info on the villain, it is quite hard to say whether he will limp KQ/AQ/QQ vs us on the BTN, or even if he is loose enough to flat a raise with Q9 (I THINK we can probably take 93 out of most ranges though). 99/33 are also possibilities.

I do think we have to look further though, simply because a lot of "normal" villain's might 3bet pre on the BTN with some of the hands that beat us...

2) Can worse hands raise us?
In this spot, since a lot of flat hands could contain draws, and since the depth of money going to the flop tends to favor playing draws "fast", I think we have to consider this a real possibility.

We hold a blocker to the BEST draw against us (JTd), so the next best would be AKd; we have about 47.5% equity versus that. Against KTd we have about 48% equity, and we have about 51.3% equity versus A3d. We are on around 55% to 60% equity (at worse) versus most other draws, so this really is not a hugely "bad" spot for us to peel.

Still, the fact we might be beaten, and the fact we may not have a whole lot of outs if we are, means we have to look at 1 more thing in my opinion...

3) How committing is a call for us to peel?
Calling another $1.15 will build the pot to around $3.77, and with $8+ left in the effective stack we really do not stick ourselves here if a "bad" turn shows up.

All in all, That means I too am going to peel the turn far more often than not even though I lack info on the villain.

I do want to say DedEyez, I think you made a correct inference given the info you state in your lead in. A hand like KQ/AQ or a set MAY raise us large right off the bat, simply to price us off a draw we might hold, but since we led out, those types of hands may also think they are going to get a BIGGER pot built by letting a turn card come and have us fire again. The pot on the flop is pretty SMALL afterall, so it would take some info on US to make an opp think an immediate raise is the best value extraction with a "big" hand...if we lack info, so (probably) does the opp. Good call.

TURN:

Well, the turn blanks, and our situation is pretty much exactly what it was on the flop.

In this spot, I like your check DedEyez, as we really are not sure if we hold the best hand or not. If we lead strong, we are quite likely to get hands we beat to fold, and if we lead small we may be giving implied odds to hands that are drawing to beat us. Obviously, this "blank" means we are probably not getting hands like KQ/AQ to fold either...

To me, this means we see that our hand has "showdown" value versus an unknown opp, but does not really hold ENOUGH value to bet or raise (since we do not know if he'd limp AQ/KQ or if he holds a set).

If we see a standard bet behind our check though, and we call, we are probably sticking ourselves to the "read" that he has a draw of some sort, and that our QJ is good (unless a very scary card comes). I will be honest, I'm fine with that.

We cannot immediately move all in on the turn though, simply because we will tend to fold out hands that we beat, and get called by those which beat us. I think we DO have enough info to check/call any amount on the river the villain cares to bet though.

So I like your check/call on the turn DedEyez...

RIVER:

I have to agree with you that you turned your QJ into a bluff on the river DE. This final "blank" (I mean are EITHER of us holding a 3, really???) means we are not folding out AQ/KQ any more in a bloated pot (at least not without info that the opp is a nit), and we obviously are not folding out boats.

I think I would have prefer a check/call line on the river, to give the opp 1 more chance to bluff off some chips. The benefit of this (to me) is that:

A) He may put an "easy" amount to call out there for us, thus adding value.
B) He may think WE have a boat now given that we withstood all his pressure, and may well CHECK KQ/AQ behind us. This saves us money.

Either way, that adds value for us. You bet is only going to fold out worse hands, and get alled by better ones DE...

So all in all, I think you read the hand quite well, and played it well all the way thru the turn. The river jam by you appears to me to be a bit of "fear" that your QJ may NOT be good afterall, but the action you took would simply assure that you do lose the max if it isn't.

I think I'd have been willing to call the entire villain's stack here if he chose to shove it, and live and die with my read that he MAY be trying 1 last chance to bluff a busted draw, but my hand just does not have enough value in it to really try extracting anything more from the villain.

(Note: I do suppose a bet/old line is marginally possible on the river, as a half pot bet leaves NO room for a villain to bluff us all in. I just would not like this line myself, as we lack info on whether he can level us enough to realize that we MAY fold a top pair hand to what is a pretty small bluff all in.)

Good hand overall DedEyez, but just watch out for those risky river all ins when you have calling value...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Feb 07, 2012 at 01:52 PM..
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 07:25 AM
(#3)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Hi! Dave, Thanks a lot for your analysis, much appreciated as always.

Although I won the pot but I hated my play on the river as soon as the hand was over, hence I decided to post the hand here for the analysis.

However if I had checked the river and the opp shoves I would have found it very hard to call given that I had no reads on the opp.

Cheers.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 11:30 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post
Hi! Dave, Thanks a lot for your analysis, much appreciated as always.

Although I won the pot but I hated my play on the river as soon as the hand was over, hence I decided to post the hand here for the analysis.

However if I had checked the river and the opp shoves I would have found it very hard to call given that I had no reads on the opp.

Cheers.
Hi Dedeyez.

On the river, you are facing a call of 5.79 to possibly win 14.36.
You are getting 2.4 to 1 to call if he does jam.
You only need to be "right" about 29.4% of the time to break even.

I certainly not LOVE seeing a shove on the river, and a river shove is going to be something you'd much PREFER having info to call (since it really is NOT a great bluff shove spot with you holding out thru 2 streets of pressure), but given your initial feeling that the villain's flop action are possibly weak, I think we can expect to be ok on eV to call this jam.

Afterall, if we are un-willing to do so, then our turn call is pretty much negated in terms of being a worthwhile play, right? If we call the turn, we are probably going to have to live and die with our read, and call the river as well.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 12:34 PM
(#5)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Afterall, if we are un-willing to do so, then our turn call is pretty much negated in terms of being a worthwhile play, right? If we call the turn, we are probably going to have to live and die with our read, and call the river as well.

-JDean
Cheers Dave,

That is a good point, I should I have trusted my read and gone with it rather than making a scared/defensive bet on the river. Additionally if I had trust my read, possibly could have got a little bit more value out of the hand. Very good point which I have taken on board.

Cheers.
 

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