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should i call

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should i call - Tue Feb 07, 2012, 10:32 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604



We are on the point bubble of a home league game. Whats the correct play here?

Villian bets 1404

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Tue Feb 07, 2012, 11:23 PM
(#2)
wetmoose 613's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
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correct play for who?SS shoves 2 more to act and your BB and big stack.if either call or shove and you go away .If they don t i think you still fold because nearly half the deck beats you as is. do you really want to double him up at this stage?
just my thoughts i been wrong before.

gl y all

by the way i like your teaching style
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 12:48 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
You should tighten on the bubble, not loosen to knock a player out. By playing tight, you lock up the chips so the short stack can't easily double up. You want to make it hard for him to get it in with the best hand. I'd say your hand is actually lower than the bottom of a decent villain's shoving range here, although table dynamics could easily change that. Medium unsuited connectors run pretty poorly in spots like this imo, because the bulk of the villain's range (two overcards) is beating you 2-to-1. And even if his range is wide enough to include lower cards, he'll be dominating you before he loses to you (AK, AQ is bad; A9, A8 is actually worse, only A7-A2, etc. is good for you). I don't think you should call.

Also, if ori is shoving ATC here, you're still behind. Not by much, but it's something to think about.
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 02:07 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
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Hi Grade b,

This is an easy fold imo. I know ori shoves wide, but you are calling ~ 1250 into a pot of 1730 so you need ~ 42% equity to break even. He has to be shoving over 2/3rds of starting hands just for you to get to this point (and even if he's shoving a lot wider you still only have a thin equity edge).

Additionally, if this point bubble is significant to your opponents, then you don't want to bust ori yet, as the chip leader it's ok for you to have him around on life support on the point bubble to increase fold equity vs. the other players, none of whom will want to risk bubbling points vs. you while there's a really short stack present.

Even without the bubble consideration however, I think this is a pretty easy fold imo.

Dave


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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 02:08 AM
(#5)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
As big stack on the bubble, I don't think tightening up is the correct play - by all means, abuse the shorter stacks who don't want to bubble out and steal blinds and antes wherever you can. You should loosen up.

But that doesn't mean you should start being a maniac. While I'd have no trouble at all opening up the pot in late position with the 8,9 off to do some stealing, I'm never calling a 10BB shove with it. The absolute best case scenario is something like a baby ace or a baby pair, in both cases you'll need to hit. Odds are he has a better pair, or two overcards. No need to spew chips here.

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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 12:10 PM
(#6)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Thanks for the replies so far every one,

Note everyone folds to be here.

Does this change the play?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 01:23 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
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Hey grade b!

Everyone folding wouldn't matter for me here either. If anyone did call, then it makes it an even easier fold, as they're going to have a real hand.

In this situation, as a shortstack, Ori can be shoving a larger range, but IMO 89 off is a bit weak to be calling (he'd need to be shoving top 40% to just make it an even EV play). If I had Ax, Kx, or even maybe Qx then I'd be calling him here, but not with 89 off. Even though I'd have a big chip advantage, I wouldn't want to take the chance of doubling up a good player when I was an underdog in the hand.

With a better hand, I'm calling easily... but 89 off is a bit weak for me in this situation. I'd rather be against him when I'm a favorite.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 11:20 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Thx to wetmoose for giving me that tip about the free trial for Sit N Go Wizard ... he's been giving me helpful tips in my Cowboy's challenge thread, and he really knows his stuff!!

So I downloaded it, and I plugged in your numbers grade b ... not sure I did it right, but this is what came out:



That's way tight, eh? It didn't even like AJo, 77 ... granted, oriholic's shoving almost 10bb's from utg, but wouldn't you think as chip leader that AJo would be a decent call against a 14% range?

Did I use the right tool?

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 11:51 PM..
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 12:04 AM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
You need to modify the settings to use the correct pay structure in the calculations. I have a feeling the calling range suggestion is too tight for two reasons:

1) This game probably has a different payout structure than a SNG, which might make this game less like a SNG and more like a MTT. That could reduce the significance of the bubble and widen the recommended calling range.

2) The shoving range of the CO in your simulation is 14%, and TheLangolier mentioned above that ori tends to shove wide. You can click on his Open%: 14+ button to modify his range to be a more accurate representation of what you think he's shoving.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 12:14 AM
(#10)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Oh yeah, in the absence of info, my calculations were based on an assumption that:

1) This was a 2-table, 18-player SNG (minus a person), with a starting chip stack of 3000
2) Oriholic was using the spacegravy charts for push-fold, middle position, 10bb's

I'm not sure why oriholic would be shoving way wider than recommended, or how a small home game would wind up more like an MTT, but I can do the calcs based on other scenarios if grade b isn't around (just for kicks) ...

brb ...
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 12:21 AM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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I don't know how realistic it'd be to assume oriholic would be shoving with Q5o, but if you give him a 50% shoving range, the calling range is still pretty tight ... 21%:



That's still a lot tighter than you would expect if you think somebody's shoving possibly as bad as Q5o, wouldn't you think? like A4o isn't even good enough?

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 12:23 AM..
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 03:38 AM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
By my understanding, when you're on the bubble, the game changes a lot (at least in 9-man's) such that pot odds are much less important relative to tournament equity. The chances of winning a hand are no longer anywhere near as important as winning money, because the repurcussions of losing a pot are huge. Making a call with J4s because you have 2-to-1 and then losing the hand can result in you being the only person at the table who bought in and who doesn't cash. That's a big deal if the bubble represents a large pay jump. In a 9-man, it's a 20% pay jump, which is massive. In an MTT, it's often a 0.2% pay jump, which really isn't, ergo the importance of avoiding risk more in smaller games.

Anyway, in this spot, the hero has a massive stack, so losing isn't likely to put him out of the money. But making a loose call and then doubling up the short stack almost doubles the short stack's chances of cashing, which makes it more likely the hero won't cash. That would be a huge deal if the hero had a similar stack size as the villain, but even on a big stack, there's still need to be a bit tighter than normal. And like mentioned earlier, big stacks can benefit from maintaining the bubble, which argues for a fold as well.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 04:10 PM
(#13)
oriholic's Avatar
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I like the discussion here. It would be a bit better if you provided reads/history.

Grade B, how wide do you think ori is pushing?

There's no way ori is pushing any two here. And it should be pretty clear from the past few orbits.

Here's the history. I showed up realllllly late and was down to about 10 BBs to begin with. I folded a lot of hands. I shoved 3 or 4 times. I was caught jamming AQ into AQ, took down the blinds with another hand (88 I think), and was caught jamming A3 into Grade B's 54o (the blinds had just passed through me and I was down to about 4 BBs).

That last hand is key. I know Grade B is calling me super wide and that I have close to zero fold equity. So how wide can I really be shoving? Over 3 or 4 orbits I only shoved 3 or 4 times, so it is extremely unlikely for me to be pushing super wide. I'm probably pushing somewhere around 20% or less. A range like [22+ A2+ K5s+ K8o+ Q8s+ Q9o+ J9s+ JTo T9s] is a pretty reasonable wide estimate. Since I'm expecting to get called 100% of the time I'm going to be shoving relatively tight and for value. I actually think I was shoving quite a bit tighter, but let's assume I was really wide.

Against that range you should be calling really pretty tight. Something like 11%. [22+ A4s+ A7o+ K9s+ KJo+ QTs JTs].

Clearly 98o is a bad call. But how bad? Well, you're about 35% against my range. So 65% of the time you lose about 1250 and 35% you win 1730. (.65)(-1250)+(.35)(1730)=-207, or about -1.4 BBs.

If you want to call it spending 1.4 BBs on advertising since you have 100 of them, okay. This may cause other people to tighten their shoving ranges against you. Also if we consider that there was a bounty in play, that can push this from a snap fold to a close call/fold.

Although what's probably of prime importance is not the payout, not the bounty, but the league points. I'm not sure how they work, but we could probably work out some numbers for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b
Note everyone folds to be here.

Does this change the play?
Actually, here's where it gets interesting. Since everyone folds to you this is an easy fold. But, what if someone had called? You now have three options instead of two. You can fold, you can call, and you can raise! If you call you are going to have to play a dry sidepot with a crummy hand and pretty poor implied odds, so that option sucks. If someone calls then by the time it gets to you you'll be getting much better than 2 to 1 on a call. This is not good enough for your hand three ways. But consider raising! If you raise and the other guy folds you get the pot heads up against my fairly wide range with lots of dead money. Often I'll triple up to what's still a pretty small stack, and a decent amount of the time you'll win the pot. The other guy should be extremely unlikely to call your shove since he's waiting for my micro-stack to busto on the bubble. If he folds often enough you can be getting a good price to take your 98o against my range. Cool huh?


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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 04:15 PM
(#14)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Love shoving under those conditions. Hate showing.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 04:38 PM
(#15)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Oh yeah, in the absence of info, my calculations were based on an assumption that:

1) This was a 2-table, 18-player SNG (minus a person), with a starting chip stack of 3000
2) Oriholic was using the spacegravy charts for push-fold, middle position, 10bb's

I'm not sure why oriholic would be shoving way wider than recommended, or how a small home game would wind up more like an MTT
It was a 14-man MTT. Payout is 50/30/20. I'm not sure how the points pay.

I actually was shoving pretty tight, due to the table dynamics. Readless, Grayson's charts are surely excellent, but I had a read that Grade b was calling me super wide. Due to that I was forced to tighten up my shove range. Against someone who folds way too much, I would certainly open up my shove range quite a bit.


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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 07:03 PM
(#16)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
sigh, Back to studying for me. I was thinking (and yes given what i can now see thinking is a very loose term for it). "HA I'm chip leader and if i lose I'm still chip leader. I have a connected hand and If i Knock Oriholic out I'm in the points. He just showed down AQ not long ago so he prob thinks we all think hes tight, anyway even if I'm wrong I'm still chip leader, so its a cheap call."

Oh and add in mmmmm Red wine


Yes i was thinking well someone that short is really going to have to shove wide and so i can call light for the chance to knock them out. (8o seems a little light to me know but you live and learn)


Grade b.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 09:38 PM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
It was a 14-man MTT. Payout is 50/30/20. I'm not sure how the points pay.

I actually was shoving pretty tight, due to the table dynamics. Readless, Grayson's charts are surely excellent, but I had a read that Grade b was calling me super wide. Due to that I was forced to tighten up my shove range. Against someone who folds way too much, I would certainly open up my shove range quite a bit.
Something else that would indicate that you weren't really shoving wide would have been the fact that you weren't shoving into Trumpin Joe if you had the chance. Don't know if you did or not.

I'm still trying to figure out what's happening with the ICM calculations - like the reason you can generally assume a short-stack is never shoving wider than 15-20% into a stack that has them covered 15 times over (who could call and still be chip leader) is that they tend to have less fold equity. But yet, the ICM calculator is saying to call super tight, even if one's stack has the shover covered 15 times over, could call and still be chip leader - that's kind of counterintuitive, eh?

Your explanation sounds plausible Panicky, and I know you've gotten amazing results by following the guidance of the ICM calculators, so that's strong evidence that they would seem to have merit. But I also know you're a good reader, and good strategist, and smart about stack management, etc ... I guess I still want to understand the output of this ICM calculator from first principles before I think I'll be ready to embrace a different course of action that seems kind of counterintuitive?

Think I'm going to try working out the data long-hand to see if that gives any indication of why grade b should still be calling short-stack shoves so tight (like way tighter than 89o ... think 89s wasn't even good, was it?)

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 09:46 PM..
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 09:41 PM
(#18)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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oops - double post!


Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 09:43 PM..
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 10:46 PM
(#19)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Well, so I did some of the ICM calculations by long-hand, and it looks like the big problem is that 98o (which is only a top 44% hand) does not have good odds against a 20% range.

ICM for Grade B

Quote:
Call or Fold?
A call might win big (and eliminate a person and make the points) or lose big
A fold is guaranteed to lose little

Step 1 – Calculate Grade b’s pot equity for each possible outcome:
a. Grade b calls and wins:
Oriholic: 0%
Grade b: 33.5%

b. Grade b calls and loses:
Oriholic: 8.7%
Grade b: 29.4%

c. Grade b folds:
Oriholic: 5.4%
Grade b: 31.2%

Step 2 – Calculate pot odds (probabilities of a win/loss)
Oriholic (20% range): 66.9%
Grade b (89o): 33.1%

Step 3 – Calculate the expected value of a call, and the expected value of a fold
EVcall = Pwin*EQwin + Plose*EQlose = 0.331*0.335 + 0.669*0.294 = 0.111 + 0.197 = 30.8%
EVfold = EQfold = 31.2%

Step 4 – Which is better, a call or a fold?
30.8% < 31.2%, so calling < folding
(Folding is better than calling)
So I plugged in an alternative, like A4s, which is also a 20% range, and that looks to be fine:

Quote:
20% range: 54.6%
A4s: 45.4%

EVcall = 0.454*0.335 + 0.546*0.294 = 0.152 + 0.161 = 31.3%
Note that A4s DOES NOT appear on SNG Wizard's list of acceptable hands to call with. Not sure why SNG Wizard is so tight?
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 11:23 PM
(#20)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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So, I did an additional step that'll tell you what pot odds Grade b would need for the call to be +EV in terms of ICM winnings, and it gave 43.9%:

Quote:
Let Pwin be the probability needed for Grade b to make a +EV(ICM) call:

Pwin > (EQfold-EQlose)/(EQwin-EQlose)
Pwin > (31.2%-29.4%)/(33.5%-29.4%) = 1.8/4.1
Pwin > 43.9%
So that's why A4s was fine against a 20% range (it's expected to win 45% of the time). So the range that ICM calcs actually give is a lot wider than SNG Wizard is giving. SNG wizard said 99+, ATs+, AQo+ etc, whereas the actual ICM calcs are saying that 33+, A2s+, A8o+ is fine.

Maybe I'll go see if SNG Wizard has a customer service forum?
 

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