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You choose the ACTION (The Turn #1)

View Poll Results: What do we do?
1) FOLD 6 60.00%
2) CALL 0 0%
3) RAISE all in, throwing up in our mouths for getting in this spot 0 0%
4) RAISE maximum, moving all in. High 5'ing our screen. 3 30.00%
5) BLANK (For JDean to use to view voting, please do not select this option.) 1 10.00%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

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You choose the ACTION (The Turn #1) - Wed Feb 08, 2012, 03:35 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi again Folks!

On the last street, the group voted 4 to 6 in favor of calling over raising small. So we call!

ACTION:

(Please note: due to some confusion in the last hand, I am NOT including the Dentist's bet in the pot this time. The pot shown in the graphic is the pot BEFORE his bet, and his bet amount is shown in front of his seat. The total pot when our decision happens is $523).

We call the $100 bet on the flop, and the pot grows to $358; we have $324 behind.

The dealer taps the table twice, burns a card, and rolls a Jh on the turn.

We see the Dentist lean forward, look at our stack, and we make brief eye contact with him. He then leans back in his seat, and announces "I bet", again in a normal conversational voice. He moves $165 into the middle, and adopts a very neutral body language, with his un-wavering eyes fixed on the pot.

What do We do?

1) FOLD
2) CALL
3) RAISE minimum, making it $320 to go (leaving us $4 behind).
4) RAISE maximum, moving all in.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 03:46 PM..
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 03:55 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
minraise is 330.00 putting us in giving us only 3 options
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 04:05 PM
(#3)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
OK, JD, you're not making it easy for us. Nor was I expecting you to.
Still, body language could go either way.
The turn card could go either way too.
Eye contact we have no info on (other that it's brief). IRL, maybe I could tell a lot from that, maybe not.

Still.
I'm not folding (unless the eye contact told me enough - which it didn't).
$165 is half my stack. I'm all-in, if I'm beat, I'll get him on some other hands :)

Last edited by Don B. Cilly; Wed Feb 08, 2012 at 04:33 PM.. Reason: numbers :)
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 04:09 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
minraise is 330.00 putting us in giving us only 3 options
yes, you are right. Sorry.


Double Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 04:23 PM
(#5)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
About tells - body language - eyes...
what I do in live play is:
whenever I'm in a pot "situation", apart from watching my hands, I simply (actively) think about something else - something I find amusing, possibly that happened the same day or very recently, no shortage of that here. That gives me the same half-smirking, far-awayish expression all the time, deep down I know what I'm playing, but my "attention" is focused on something totally unrelated.

Don't know if I'm explaining this too well, but it does seem to work.

Also I tend to "narrow my eyes" at random and a lot.
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 05:35 PM
(#6)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Well I have been wrong both previous times when I would have folded pre-flop and made a small raise on the flop.

Here I am folding...

Not only has he seemed confident from the beginning of the hand but he has backed it up with his strong betting. If we were seeking information on the flop by calling his raise then I think he has confirmed that he is probably not bluffing and has a strong holding by betting the turn.

I'm giving up and waiting for a better spot
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 05:55 PM
(#7)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
hmmmm, i don't like my hand anymore.

even though i said i was committed, i think all i have now is a bluff catcher and i don't think he's good enough to bluff that well.

the only hand i'm beating is QQ, imo, since JJ is a hand i put him on and i don't think he'd bet TT here, i now put him on AA, AK or a set, so, i probably have 4 outs to hit a straight and unfavourable odds.

all the money is going in either now or on the river, so it costs 324 to win 682, do i win 1 out of 3 here?

i think i muck and try to get him to show his hand for future reference.
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 06:07 PM
(#8)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
I'm inbetween choices
fold or All in.

So I'm awaire that looking at your own chips is a tell that you like your own hand but can someone tell me waht looking at you oppenents chips is a sign of?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 06:35 PM
(#9)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
BronzeStar
ALL IN !

even if we end up being behind, we still have a draw, not huge, but top pair, good kicker, if you just bet, you're committed anyways, so SHOVE IT, LIKE YOU JUST HIT THE NUTS, he may just fold, figuring you on the straight.
My view..

Stake
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 06:44 PM
(#10)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
B, the dental floss tycoon is not looking at his or our chips.
He's looking at the pot. As if to say, we're just two lost souls swimming in a fish bowl, if you get the lyrics. And he's dental.

Now, if you vote fold - I'll kill you ;)

Have we come this far in the exercise to see the rabbits have us fold what is practically top kicker on top pair, on the turn, with so much in the pot, to a lip-lickin' mennil-toss-flycoon?
Who is looking at the pot to as if say wish you were here?
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 06:49 PM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
I'm pretty sure JDean wrote he looks at our stack

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 06:49 PM
(#12)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
If the dentist has it (AA or AK) then he just priced out our draw (even if all 10 outs are good), so if we bet, we're turning top pair/2nd kicker into a bluff. My cards are going into the muck.


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 06:58 PM
(#13)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
adopts a very neutral body language, with his un-wavering eyes fixed on the pot.
You vote fold... I'll kill you. Slowly :)
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 07:01 PM
(#14)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
I'm inbetween choices
fold or All in.

So I'm awaire that looking at your own chips is a tell that you like your own hand but can someone tell me waht looking at you oppenents chips is a sign of?

Grade b
He most likely is counting your chips. In a live setitng, you cannot ask the dealer to count an opponent's stack down, unless that opponent has BET his entire stack (in that case, the dealer is counting a bet, not a player's chips, see?).

With the dealer between you and the Dentist, it is quite possible he lost track of your stack size due to the fact he is not able to see it well without leaning forward.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 07:29 PM
(#15)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Don't like a call. Don't like a fold.

On the basis of which I dislike least, I am all-in.

If he was reasonably tight I could still put him on almost as many hands we beat as those that beat us, as he has shown to be looser I think we are still a small favourite, and we have outs if he is ahead.

Plus, as he is a dentist, he can get his teeth fixed at a discount if he does have us beat....

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
Old
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 09:58 PM
(#16)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
Arrrrrrrrr.

Ok if i was there at the table I'm calling and you know what i think i'm behind !!! with 12 hours to think about it and having reread all relpys 26.6 times, I think i should fold. Would he fire a bullet on turn on a bluff....maybe but i was really really waiting for a check......

Grrr....

I FOLD....... (i think i may know why i'm not up in ring games!!!)

Grade b

PS No one tell Don where i live.


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 06:46 AM
(#17)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
I would have have taken the initiative pre-flop by raising so we would have a better idea about the strength of dentist's hand, but since we called the pre-flop raise in position I would not have continued after the flop without a strong draw or two pairs with this hand.

However since we are where we are, I don't think calling is an option here at all cos that will commit us to the pot and we are not folding on the river. So the other option is to go AI which I personally hate it with a top pair and a second best kicker on such a co-ordinated board.

Although we have invested $176 but I'm cutting my losses and not putting anymore of good money after bad. We still have $324 left which we can find a much better spot later on. So I have opted to fold here.

BTW we have already put 35%(Are we beyond commitment point already??) of our stack in the pot and even against the opp's top 15% range our hand's equity is about 70% on this board. So maybe the right play would be to ship it.

Cheers.

Last edited by deadeyz; Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 06:53 AM.. Reason: amend
 
Old
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 04:15 PM
(#18)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
Ok, so we're folding to our perception of (JDean's narrative of) the Dentist.
Awrite.
I just hope JDean can make him accidentally throw his JQ of spades face up... or at least give us an opinion on our analyses.
 
Old
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 05:22 PM
(#19)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post

BTW we have already put 35%(Are we beyond commitment point already??) of our stack in the pot and even against the opp's top 15% range our hand's equity is about 70% on this board. So maybe the right play would be to ship it.

Cheers.
Great Question DedEyez!

In a cash game, unlike an MTT/SNG, you are never truly "committed" to any pot until the last chip you have is in.

(In an MTT/SNG, you may be committed, because once you pass a certain point of investment in your stack, folding away ANY chance of winning, even a tiny one, may hurt your ability to make a profit MORE than calling will.)

Consider...

In a cash game, the money you do not LOSE is precisely equal in spending power to the money you win, right?

Think of it like this:

If you tally up all your winnings throughout a year, and see you are $1000 ahead, but that you had made "mistakes" in calling (because you felt pot committed) that lost you $1500 more than you "had" to lose, it would not matter to your bottom line whether you won $1500 more in the year or whether you lost $1500 LESS...right?

You'd have exactly the same amount of extra cash either way: $2500 profit instead of $1000.

So the only true measure of "pot commitment" in a cash game should be your equity from calling off (or betting/raising off) the remainder of your stack.

Obviously, the DEEPER into your stack you are, and the LARGER the pot is in relation to the amount you'd have to put in to realize ANY chance of winning, the smaller your chance of winning (either by suck out or by holding the best hand) would have to be to justify a call off of your remaining chips.

Example:

You start with $1000 in a hand (your's is the smaller stack).
Going to the flop, you have put in $100, and your opp has put in $100, and the pot = $215 (from blinds)

You know the opp is prone to LARGE BETS when he bluffs, and he bluffs a lot!

Let's say you have flopped a nut flush draw with AKs vs this super frequent bluffer.

He leads for an amount equal to half your stack ($450), but as you want him to continue bluffing, you only flat.

He then checks the turn, and you check behind.

You miss again on the river, and only have A hi.

The pot now = $1115, and the opp moves all in for an amount which covers you.

You are therefore "risking" a $450 call, for the chance to win $1565, and you are getting 3.48 to 1 on a call.

Are you "committed" to call on A hi? NO!

But if you feel there is at least a 22% to 23% chance your A hi is best, you can certainly justify a call!

But in no way are you "committed" to calling.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 07:40 PM
(#20)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don B. Cilly View Post
Ok, so we're folding to our perception of (JDean's narrative of) the Dentist.
Awrite.
I just hope JDean can make him accidentally throw his JQ of spades face up... or at least give us an opinion on our analyses.
LOL

No i'm folding because a "weaker" player fired another bullet and i don't intend to pu all my chips at risk to see if his bluffing here. If he did well done sir, I shall what him for a few more obits and work on my reads.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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