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What is the correct play here?

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What is the correct play here? - Wed Feb 08, 2012, 10:07 PM
(#1)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
This is a $15 9 man and as you can see the action is folded to me in the sb. The BB is a 7/6 thru 82 hands and has folded his BB to a steal 3/3 times. I'd like some thoughts as to what you would do here!

PokerStars Hand #74226516319: Tournament #503901869, $13.70+$1.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2012/01/21 9:50:20 ET
Table '503901869 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 3: alexvez18 (1065 in chips)
Seat 4: jobin72 (3578 in chips)
Seat 6: 19honu62 (3472 in chips)
Seat 7: Gordon358 (1645 in chips)
Seat 8: kfgf77 (1770 in chips)
Seat 9: martiness69 (1970 in chips)
19honu62: posts small blind 100
Gordon358: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 19honu62 [9d 8s]
kfgf77: folds
martiness69: folds
alexvez18: folds
jobin72: folds

Giddy Up!
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 10:16 PM
(#2)
Deleted user
You fold.

Any play gets shoved on by most players at this stake and blind level.
Let them beat each other up at this level when you have a comfortable stack.
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 11:05 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Cowboy.

I think in this spot I raise, making it around 450 to 550 to go.

While picking up 300 from a blind steal is not going to make or break your SNG here, it is a nice addition to your stack (it makes you chip leader by a small amount). This guy is folding his blinds so often, and playing so tightly, that ANY 2 cards are worth it on your stack to take his blinds away.

He seems the type who will easily let you know if you are beat, as a 450 to 550 type raise will put him in a shove or fold spot on his stack. If he does shove, mucking this amount keeps you in the 2nd spot stack-wise, at right around 3k, so it is not hugely damaging to your chances of making it ITM, or even winning. Plus, with 7/6 pre flop numbers on a decent amount of hands, he probably is not flatting you very often no matter what; if he DOES flat, play fit or fold with a HUGE downgrade to any single pair hit.

To me, risking around 2.5BB for a chance to take the chip lead is certainly a great risk to take here!

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Great opportunity to pick-up chips - Wed Feb 08, 2012, 11:28 PM
(#4)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
This is a $15 9 man and as you can see the action is folded to me in the sb. The BB is a 7/6 thru 82 hands and has folded his BB to a steal 3/3 times. I'd like some thoughts as to what you would do here!

Giddy Up!
It seems like you’re at a table that has been playing really tight. Blinds are at level 6 (100/200), and there are still 6 players left. You’re one of two chip leaders with 17.5BB’s. You are in an ideal position - the player to your left is super tight, and the other chip leader is on your right.

The Situation:
Table folds to you in the SB. The villain in the BB has the following stats: VPIP 8%; PFR 6%; 82 hands data; folded his BB 3 out of 3 times to a steal attempt.

You need to risk 1.5BB's to more than likely win 1.5BB's. If you lose, it won't jeopardize your standing in the game. The chance of winning without a flop seems to be over 90%. I really don't feel a 'super NIT' is ready to shove ATC with 8.2BB's. Even if he widens his range, it won't be at the 50% level (which is why you're betting even money to win the pot). Did you have to look at your hand? This is and automatic ‘min raise’ (all that’s needed), any resistance (he’ll shove, if he likes his hand), you’re out of the hand (even if he calls, you’re probably shutting down).

I’m ‘Min-Raising’! Basically you’re investing 300 to win 300, against a ‘Super NIT’, without losing control of your position in the game.
.
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 11:44 PM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
So I downloaded that Sit n Go Wizard free trial and got some interesting results ... anybody else have that thing?

It said to push with a 100% range LOL! Not sure I'm using it right?

Those $15 tables look really scary - at the $1.50 tables, by the time the blinds hit 200/100, half the time we're already ITM with bigger stacks and fewer people, etc ... it's like apples and oranges I guess, eh?
 
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Wed Feb 08, 2012, 11:56 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Clear ATC shove imo. Even if he weren't a nit, he'd fold often enough to make it worth it. I like JDean's reasoning for a small raise, although I'd prefer the minraise because this guy is pretty much never flatting on 8bb and then folding. But in this spot, he's too short to really justify raise/folding. Since the effective stack is 8bb, the situation is basically the same as you raise/folding on 8bb. Also, 98o isn't really the trashiest hand in the world, so you do have decent equity if you're called.

With regards to Cookies' statement, minraise/calling is a popular play with big hands in high-blind BVB spots, so there are very few regs who play SNG's who will shove over a raise here with a much wider than normal range. Also, when I get minraised from the SB in spots like this, I tend to play pretty tight in my BB because I don't really think I have fold equity if I shove.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 12:18 AM
(#7)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Well done Sam and panicky! It is a shove! I have been doing alot of work with ICM etc and am getting some surprising results of how I am missing some spots. I wouldn't have thought it either Sam.
Way to think outside the box and use the tools that are available.
Are we really min raise folding to a guy that has 1400 behind? We are all about making +EV plays and even if he calls and we are likely behind we have lots of outs.

 
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Why risk being in the money? - Thu Feb 09, 2012, 12:32 AM
(#8)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Well done Sam and panicky! It is a shove! I have been doing alot of work with ICM etc and am getting some surprising results of how I am missing some spots. I wouldn't have thought it either Sam.
Way to think outside the box and use the tools that are available.
Are we really min raise folding to a guy that has 1400 behind? We are all about making +EV plays and even if he calls and we are likely behind we have lots of outs.

Negreanu had a similar spot in the BTN; with a short shoving stack, he opted to ‘min-raise’. When asked after the tourney, why he chose such an odd line (for the stack size he had), he replied (not verbatim), “That’s all I needed to bet. The blinds are very tight, and short, if they raise, they have me beat. If not I take down the pot. Why risk my entire stack!”

If you shove and get called, you may be crushed by a premium pair. At best you're facing two overcards (63/37), why risk losing 1/2 your stack (even with outs)? You are also risking being in the money; at the moment you are co-chip leader. A 'min raise' against THIS villain will accomplish what you want.
.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 01:03 AM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Okay I've got something funny/weird/nerdy I have to ask/ponder/reflect ...

You know what's funny about this Sit N Go Wizard, is that it gives suggestions based on a range. But then if you were to act on the range, then that might change the other person's range. And then if their range was changed, that might change the suggestion. You know what I mean?

Like this is what SNG Wizard gave for Cowboy's hand - it said "push" since the bb is so tight:






But then ... what if the bb knows that SNG Wizard is recommending that the sb push 100% of hands? Then doesn't that change their calling range? Look at what the SNG Wizard recommended the bb do if the sb is pushing 100% of hands - it said "call" 40.7%:






So then, if the bb is thinking that the sb is pushing 100% so then they're calling with 40.7%, then look what SNG Wizard recommends for 98o - it says "fold"?






What do y'all make of that?

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 01:12 AM..
 
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Leveling - Thu Feb 09, 2012, 01:24 AM
(#10)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Okay I've got something funny/weird/nerdy I have to ask/ponder/reflect ...

You know what's funny about this Sit N Go Wizard, is that it gives suggestions based on a range. But then if you were to act on the range, then that might change the other person's range. And then if their range was changed, that might change the suggestion. You know what I mean?

Like this is what SNG Wizard gave for Cowboy's hand - it said "push" since the bb is so tight:

But then ... what if the bb knows that SNG Wizard is recommending that the sb push 100% of hands? Then doesn't that change their calling range? Look at what the SNG Wizard recommended the bb do if the sb is pushing 100% of hands - it said "call" 40.7%:

So then, if the bb is thinking that the sb is pushing 100% so then they're calling with 40.7%, then look what SNG Wizard recommends for 98o - it says "fold"?

What do y'all make of that?
Leveling! Leveling happens at higher buy-ins; the old... I know, that you know, that I know, that you know syndrome.

I don't think this villain is doing that; he's a straight NIT. Good to see that the ICM said BB should push only 40.7% of hands, if he thinks SB (hero) is pushing ATC. With the blinds so high, 'variance' is going to take over. Players with the bigger stacks will have a better chance to withstand 'negative variance', and still make the money. Plus, shorter stacks will have to 'act' or get blinded out.
.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 01:56 AM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
Leveling! Leveling happens at higher buy-ins; the old... I know, that you know, that I know, that you know syndrome.
.
hahahahaha ... yes, I guess that's it
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 03:20 AM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
What do y'all make of that?
Very interesting question. I've noticed this before, too, but I've never figured out what causes this. I think this suggests that if we're against a reg who knows ICM in and out, and who knows that we're shoving ATC, we shouldn't be shoving (which gives more merit to the minraise/fold option).

Also (unrelated point), It also tells us that if we're against a very loose (i.e. bad) BB, we should open fold.

Cool SNG Wiz question. Makes me very curious.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 06:25 AM
(#13)
Fillmore 59's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 131
Chris, I know you're a fan of Spacegravy. So let me throw this at you:

Spacegravy SNG Series -- Part 2 -- 50-100 to 100-200/25 Blinds

Grayson's guidelines:

Whenever we or our opponent (the big blind in this case) have less than 10BB:
If we choose to play our hand the best play is usually going to be to go all in. The reason for this is that if we are to raise and our opponent goes all in for less than 10 big blinds, we are almost always getting too good a price to fold.
Thus we should only be minraising to induce shoves with our strong hands.

So according to Grayson the best play, the one with the best ev, is usually going to be to shove our stack from the small blind when we open against a villain in the big blind whose stack is less than 10BB.

In this case, however, and against this particular villain, we should not do what Grayson says we should usually do.

The reason for this is that we have a good read on the villain. He has played 7/6 thru 82 hands and folded his BB to a steal 3/3. Clearly he sticks to a very tight range and shows no inclination to play back lightly versus a perceived steal attempt.

There is simply no need to shove our stack against someone who folds nearly all his range to a standard sized bet. A 2.5X raise gets the job done, and we avoid putting half our stack at risk.

A shove may be +ev, just as Grayson says, but this time it is not the optimal play. The villain folds dependably to a small raise, giving us the blinds without risk, and moving us happily into the lead in chips.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 07:41 AM
(#14)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
This is what school is all about to have some good discussion! Filmore, very good analysis but if he re raises are you telling us that you are folding! If you are open/folding here then the optimal play is to just fold pre! Just because this guy folds 3/3 times and is pretty tight doesn't mean we can spew chips.
We are always spadez looking for spots were we arebeating the diff to make our play correct play. One of the biggest hurdles to get over is the ability to know the right play, make the right play and be fine when it doesn't turn out favorably.
I keep seeing that we will become chip leader. Honestly what does this have to do with anything?

More situations to come..... great discussions!

 
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Is this really a 'spew'? - Thu Feb 09, 2012, 08:43 AM
(#15)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
This is what school is all about to have some good discussion! Filmore, very good analysis but if he re raises are you telling us that you are folding! If you are open/folding here then the optimal play is to just fold pre! Just because this guy folds 3/3 times and is pretty tight doesn't mean we can spew chips.
We are always spadez looking for spots were we arebeating the diff to make our play correct play. One of the biggest hurdles to get over is the ability to know the right play, make the right play and be fine when it doesn't turn out favorably.
I keep seeing that we will become chip leader. Honestly what does this have to do with anything?

More situations to come..... great discussions!

Open/fold is more optimal, then folding.

Being chip leader because of 1.5BB's means nothing - but having enough chips to withstand a 'negative variance' is very important, especially now; the blinds are so high, variance will take over the game; It's 'BINGO' time! Hopefully two of the shorter stacks will be gobbled up by one other player, or by one other player and a big stack; that will help you get ITM.

Everything is relative – With the stack size we have, and the likelihood that this villain will fold to our min-raise, this is not a ‘spew’. We are trying to chip up, and keep up with the blinds. Earlier in this post, +EV plays were mentioned; +EV plays should stay at the ‘cash’ tables. There are so many situations, during tourneys, that a –EV play is a better option. There are other things to consider that are more important than +EV plays.

Sorry to make this short, I have more to say, but need to run.
.
 
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 06:53 PM
(#16)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fillmore 59 View Post
Chris, I know you're a fan of Spacegravy. So let me throw this at you:

Spacegravy SNG Series -- Part 2 -- 50-100 to 100-200/25 Blinds

Grayson's guidelines:

Whenever we or our opponent (the big blind in this case) have less than 10BB:
If we choose to play our hand the best play is usually going to be to go all in. The reason for this is that if we are to raise and our opponent goes all in for less than 10 big blinds, we are almost always getting too good a price to fold.
Thus we should only be minraising to induce shoves with our strong hands.

So according to Grayson the best play, the one with the best ev, is usually going to be to shove our stack from the small blind when we open against a villain in the big blind whose stack is less than 10BB.

In this case, however, and against this particular villain, we should not do what Grayson says we should usually do.

The reason for this is that we have a good read on the villain. He has played 7/6 thru 82 hands and folded his BB to a steal 3/3. Clearly he sticks to a very tight range and shows no inclination to play back lightly versus a perceived steal attempt.

There is simply no need to shove our stack against someone who folds nearly all his range to a standard sized bet. A 2.5X raise gets the job done, and we avoid putting half our stack at risk.

A shove may be +ev, just as Grayson says, but this time it is not the optimal play. The villain folds dependably to a small raise, giving us the blinds without risk, and moving us happily into the lead in chips.
+1.

I definately see reason in what SNG Wizard comes up with in terms of OPTIMAL PLAY strategies. BUT...

Why not avoid an optimal play that could hurt us SEVERELY if this circumstance just "happens" to be the time the nit wakes up with AA/KK and calls our jam, when we have such reliable data to go for a more exploitative play?

Sure, a small raise here is certainly counter exploitable; that is the nature of ANY exploitative pIay. But with 6 players left, is a guy showing THIS TIGHT a play style really going to put himself at risk by bluff shoving over our small raise when he can keep the 4th stack intact, and the blinds are bringing such pressure on the 2 short stacks ahead of him for the bottom $ spot?

I doubt it highly...

If we were only the BUBBLE, and it was a matter of the nit going from 1400 to 1900, with a 1065 stack approaching his blinds, the extra chips he gets in trying to "steal" a small chip up off his image MIGHT be worth it to him (although a nit stills probably tries to out last the shortest stack),
but I am still loathe to try picking up 300 by risking my standing as the 2nd stack. In a bubble spot, I'd be much more inclined to shove or fold vs the nit.

With such a solid read here though, I FAR prefer to steal using the smallest possible amount I can...

(Note to anyone as to why I didn't say min raise then: I HATE min raises. I strongly feel that especially in steal spots, a min raise is far more likely than just about anything else to trigger a shove we do NOT want, if any bet we are likely to make could do that. So to me, I prefer just a little bit more than a min raise, especially when 50 or 100 chips one way or the other isn't going to make or break my SNG).

If we have little to fear in terms of possibly being counter exploited by a bluff shove, then there is no "fear" in adopting the smallest raise amount likely to get us our desired result. Less info = more chance we get jammed over = the more I like open shoving into a tight player, but there is simply no need for that risk here imho.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 07:05 PM..
 
Old
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Thu Feb 09, 2012, 07:58 PM
(#17)
Deleted user
Lol @ Honu thinking that there is only one way to play.
ICM is just part of the game not all of it.
Wont bother giving a opposing slant since you guys are determined to pat each other on the back,pretty funny! Carry on.
 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 01:12 AM
(#18)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
I appreciated that pat on the back, even though all I did was copy wetmoose and panicky

On the other hand, this ICM stuff looks like it could be super useful if it's able to find hidden value in seemingly not great situations, so I'm totally open to wanting to explore the ideas behind it. YET, some of it's so counterintuitive, I do find myself feeling a little skeptical, like can I trust it completely, or are there precautions and further considerations that need to be included along with the calculations sort of a deal?

Like you know how it said with 98o to shove a 100% range, but then if the sb knows that SNG Wizard is saying that, then that would widen their range to 40%, and if their range were 40%, then the sb range should only be 29%?

Maybe when there's the possibility there might be that sort of back-and-forth, like after there's been 3 situations already, we might need to assume that the bb's range might be getting progressively wider, and so the sb's range should possibly be getting progressively tighter?

I found a point where, if there were to be some sort of back-and-forth dynamic modification of each others' ranges, the two ranges converge:





Like, if the bb is starting to think the sb's shoving range is pretty wide, like say around 67%, then maybe their calling range will have widened to around 26%. And if the sb's range is now wider and around 26%, SNG wizard is recommending the sb shove around 67% of hands ... so now the two ranges converge?

So at the point of convergence, 67% is tighter than 100%. But 67% still includes a shove of 89o, just not stuff like 34o (any two). I'm open to considering a 67% range ... that's looser than my usual range of 40-60%. Sometimes I'll raise with pure crap, but usually it's when I have a much bigger stack and the blinds are much smaller because I play those $1.50 games where most of us are fish (). But I would guess that it's much much harder to gain an edge in those $15 games, so maybe that's why it's helpful to shove from the sb with a slightly wider range?

Just some random thoughts ... hope they made sense ...

Sam

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 01:15 AM..
 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 01:35 AM
(#19)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
The hero is unlikely to be calling with a wide range that ICM suggests. Of course ICM says push because the guy is a nit, pushing is +EV but that doesn't mean it's the most +EV play. Hasn't anyone bothered to do the math on raise/folding?

Let's assume the nit calls a little looser because it's blind v blind, maybe 10% just to have a reasonable number to work with. Our equity vs. a 10% range is ~ 30%

EV of open folding = 0

EV of pushing = Times he folds + times he calls and loses - times he calls and wins

EV = (.9 * 300) + (.1 * .3 * 1745) - (.1 * .7 * 1545)
EV = 270 + 52.35 - 108.15
EV = + 214.2 chips

EV of min-raise/folding = times he folds - times we fold to a shove

EV = .9*300 - .1*400 = 270-40 = +230 chips

So given these parameters specifically, raise/folding > shoving >>>> open folding

This is very arbitrary obviously. It assumes he's always putting it in with a 10% range vs. either action, and he never flats our min-raise when we take that action, he either shoves or folds. In the real world sometimes it won't be 10% for both, and sometimes real world players do flat min-raises from the BB. But at the very least it does suggest that raise/folding should be given serious consideration vs. a nit who does not adjust to the circumstances well.

Falling asleep so if I made any math errors above please set me straight.

Dave


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