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when do you say blow it and just call

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when do you say blow it and just call - Thu Feb 09, 2012, 10:41 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607


hand from Priemer league around 55 players left

what should i do.

i really want to call but...............

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 12:11 AM
(#2)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
hey grade b,

but why?

it's a call, i know this is a league but you've already invested almost 30% of your stack and you are still still alive even if you call, you have a blocker with A and Q so the only cards your afraid of is KK and AK,

he only got 6bb's so he will definitely push all in light with pairs until JJ which you have outs and AJ below which you are ahead

if you can't call 3bb more then don't raise 3bb utg so your not going to waste chips
 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 01:16 AM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
not sure b,i just opted to push in tourney with same hand and busted out to 44 so tough choice and great question.
 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 02:50 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi grade b!

The first thing to remember... it's a league game and not a cash tourney, so the play could be different. It's about lasting longer and accumulating points.

If it was a cash tourney, then with AQ from UTG and 11BB left, I'm open-shoving here all day long. I'm in a shove/fold spot with AQ and I'll try it here... unless, this is the exact bubble, then I would muck it and play a hand after the bubble bursts.

Since this is a league tourney, I'm not necessarily looking to shove/fold. Here, I'm going to make a std open (2.2 to 2.5BB at this level) and see what happens. If any of the smaller stacks shove, it's an easy call for me. If a larger stack shoves, then it becomes tricky. Obvoiusly, the BB is calling, with only 60 chips left.

If I was spike in this hand and I was going to play it, I'm absolutely shoving. Calling is almost 1/2 my stack due to the larger preflop raise, so I'm shoving if I'm playing it.
This situation is a great example of why I lower my standard raise as the blinds get larger. If I make a 2.2BB bet here, to 2200, then spike, instead of being way beyond a committment point making his shove easy... is right at the committment point. This could make him just call and see the flop, instead of shoving.

Now we need to see if calling the 3500 makes mathematical sense. This is the determining factor, NOT just saying the heck with it and calling. If it makes math sense, we call, if not, then we muck.
To call is 3500 chips into a pot of 15560 (22.5%). Now, is when a read on spike is a necessary thing to have. How tight is he playing... how wide of a range would he shove with? For the BB, with calling 60 chips to be all-in, their range is basically ATC. Spike's hand is the difference.
If spike is shoving a top 20% hand, then AQ has 41% equity... which makes it an easy call as the hand equity is larger than the pot equity. A loose shove would even give AQ a higher equity.
If spike is shoving a top 10% hand, then AQ's equity drops to 35%... still an easy call.
If spike is playing tight (say a top 5% hand) then AQ's equity is down to 30%.

All of these ranges have AQ having more equity in a 3-way pot compared to the pot equity... so it is a call for me in this situation in a league game.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 02:24 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
TY all everyone for the answers so far. I am still learning what is correct in certern situations. This came up 3 days after my 98o debarcle.

As you point out John League is differant from reg tourinment which in teurn is differant from Cash.

The points structure in these is tremendos and I really really want to (well win of course but) get in to final table or at least final two.

So to do that do i tighten up and go in to open league mode or am i looking for mathmatically correct spots? (which i'm not sure of yet but can i guess at least pull up pokerstove after the fact.


Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 03:28 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
.

So to do that do i tighten up and go in to open league mode or am i looking for mathmatically correct spots? (which i'm not sure of yet but can i guess at least pull up pokerstove after the fact.

Grade b
Hey grade b!

The way that I always tried to play in the leagues before black friday, was to be looking for spots where I was mathematecally ahead..... but...... anything on the marginal side, especially around any of the point bubbles, I would pass on a small +EV spot. I'm still playing hands, but I want to be sure that the spots that I pick are ones that I'm a good sized favorite in the hand, which translates into a larger +EV play. By doing this, I'm still trying to accumulate chips, but I'm not taking any larger risks.

Once I'm ITM (and get the largest jump in league points), then I've got one goal in mind.. do whatever I can to try and make a final table run. Then, I'm taking every +EV spot that I can find.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 03:34 PM
(#7)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
For me that's a insta-call grade b - not too many extra points just for hanging around, when you've already done well to get this far, next aim is FT and then the top 3.

You might be behind, with outs, but in this league at this stage people will be shoving a little lighter so you are ahead a lot of the time - I think it is definitely a situation I would want to go with.

Good luck

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Fri Feb 10, 2012, 04:07 PM
(#8)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
Thanks everyone. I thought i had made teh correct play but again i thought that with the 98o hand too.

Spike was a little miffed with my call and let me know it after.



Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Extra points for making the Final Table! - Fri Feb 10, 2012, 06:58 PM
(#9)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
hand from Priemer league around 55 players left

what should i do.

i really want to call but...............

Grade b
You can skip the PSO formular, but don't miss the MUST READ SECTION of my post.

Below is an excerpt from PS about how they distribute points:

Final Table

Reach the final table receive extra points as follows:

Position Points added

1st +50
2nd +30
3rd +20
4th - 9th +10


Conclusion
The Skill League points payout structure is considerably flatter when compared to a regular MTT prize structure. In those, it doesn't matter if you bust out as the first person or become bubble boy. In both cases you will win nothing. In the Skill League scoring formula, the difference between these two places is about 40 points. Also the difference between the 1st and the 10th place is smaller than a usual prize structure. The winner will get about 68% more points than place 10. In a regular tournament he will usually receive at least 100% more. And finally, there is another big difference: for very early bust outs there will be points deducted from your score. This way early gambling will be punished and continuous good results over the month rewarded.


Read more: Skill League Scoring Formula – Poker School Online: Learn Poker Strategy, Odds and Tells http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...#ixzz1m1GeWX6b

Below is the formular:

field := size of field
rank := players finishing position
field strength:= average of starting scores of all tournament participants
2ln := Logarithm with the base 2

New score = [old score] + delta + 4 + ([field strength] - [old score]) / 33

Formula for delta:

Top 1/16 finishers:
delta = 40+(1/16-(rank/field))*16*40

Top 25% finishers:
delta = (2ln (field/rank)-2)*20

Bottom 75% finishers:
delta = (2ln (field/rank)-2)*10

Read more: Skill League Scoring Formula – Poker School Online: Learn Poker Strategy, Odds and Tells http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...#ixzz1m1I9Jj9J


MUST READ SECTION!!!
Being that the points are structured upward slowly after you make the final 6.25% (top 1/16) (you are there already), the only real BIG BONUS is when you get to the final table. You will never get to the final table playing a NITty game when you are in the final 6.25%; you need to open up!!

Fed the formular into excel - basically you are fighting for ONLY around 3 points (depends on field strength and your starting strength), between the positions 55 through 10!! (But if you make the final table, the 9th place gives you a BONUS of 10 points!!!

As played.... you need to call, there's too much dead money in the pot! You need that money to make the final table (at this point, that's your main goal!).

This is an easy SHOVE PF!

This info should give you a 'leg' up on most of the league. Good luck!

May the cards be with you.

Last edited by king_spadez1; Fri Feb 10, 2012 at 06:59 PM.. Reason: took out replayer
 

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