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what the <beep>

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what the <beep> - Sun Feb 12, 2012, 09:30 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
It's all I can say. Hand 1 in a 27 man SnG.... read em and weep



There's really no way of not going broke here is there?
 
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Sun Feb 12, 2012, 09:53 AM
(#2)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hello again ov3 I'm just browsing today and sore this post from you. Pre flop 4x fine utg with pp aces.

The flop was a draw heavy board, unknown opp ,he could have hit 2 pair or been on one off the draws,
its hard when you all ready no the outcome and easy to criticize, the opp was obviously betting something, a set grrr, first hand massive cooler, unlucky, if you had only called his flop bet you might have been able to escape at the turn.
I think many players would of shoved in that spot, so early on though, a tough choice its either bust or chip lead.
I would love to see what the analysis guys have got to say on this one,folding does not seem an option but then again tourneys are not just about one hand.
In position it is hard to ask the question sometimes with a c bet when the opp as all ready give you the answer.
No opp info is basically what cost you this hand.
 
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Sun Feb 12, 2012, 11:39 AM
(#3)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Still - is it +EV to keep that in mind. After all, the odds of the flop giving him something that beats pocket aces are rather slim.

Doing the math:
* 5.9% of him having any pocket pair, in which case he has 12.7% chance of hitting a set or better, so that's an overall probability of 7.5%
* 2.0% chance of flopping 2 pair if he had an unpaired hand.

So that gives him a less than 10% shot of outflopping pocket aces. Can you really fold to a raise with those odds? After all - he could be doing this with an overpair to the board, maybe even pocket 10, or AJ, KJ, QJ...

------------------------------------------------
keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Sun Feb 12, 2012, 12:46 PM
(#4)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hi again ov3, personally I think once the flop came the +ev was jeopardized. The opp check reraised which is normally a sign of a monster hand. When you bet out 120 that is asking your opp the question how strong is their hand and they responded with a reraise, this was the time to use your clock and have a good think, running through your mind what the opp may possibly have. So in my opinion this was not a +ev spot.
However I'm not completely clued up on +ev spots, so will be interesting to see what other members have to say.
Looking from another perspective we only have invested 200 chips at this stage, so to reraise all in was really risky.
 
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Sun Feb 12, 2012, 01:41 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello Ov3sight.

Yes, there is possibly a way to prevent getting broke in this pot actually.

In this spot Ov3rsight, AA on the flop is "just 1 pair", and 1 pair does not beat a set or a 2 pair hand.

The deeper the money is, the stronger your hand tends to need to be to call or raise off your money. This is true because opponents will be more reluctant to "pay off" (generally) with lesser hands if it puts their entire MTT/SNG life "at risk".

So for this particular spot, I think I'd be looking at 2 things:

1) What can my opponent C/R on, with this board?

Obviously a C/R is not usually a weak hand. It CAN be, but when we lack info, we really should consider it to be a strong hand more often than a weak hand in my opinion, especially at lower stakes where opponents tend to be a little less sophisticated in their play choices.

You also lack info on how many hands this particular opponent may "over value" enough to C/R. This means we cannot really know if this guy thinks ANY top pair is one he can stack off on, if he thinks ANY draw is good enough to go on, or even if he is just an aggro bluffer when defending his blinds. to find out what it might be, we really need to work to "define" our hand a bit more, and that leads us to the 2nd thing I'd tend to consider...

2) Can I RAISE/FOLD here?

When the opp C/R's you to 280, that takes away just about any ability to 3bet him then fold. A min 3bet for you would be to make it 480 to go, and that amount puts you right around a 1/3rd commitment point.

As such, I do totally "get" why you might think a shove here is better, but without info to really set a viable range for hands that could CALL a shove by you that are weaker than your AA, that shove will tend to cost you big time.

So...

I think in this spot, given the action pattern I am seeing, I FLAT the C/R, and re-assess on the turn. If a threatening card comes on the turn and I see a big bet, sure I may be getting bluffed off my hand, but this early in an MTT I can re-coup from a 280 chip loss, but I cannot re-coup from a 1500 chip loss.

If my opponent checks to me, I am probably going to check behind and play my AA for showdown value.

If I see a "normal" size bet, I would tend to look at the board and assess any draws that I might have picked up "in case" I am behind. For example: I'd only call another 280 type bet if I had picked up a draw to the A hi flush.

If I lack ANY sort of "hope" in case I am beat (beyond a 2 outer), I would far rather muck what MIGHT be the best hand now, and preserve my MTT life to find a better spot to get chips later on.

...and that's is how in my opinion you can avoid going broke here when you lack info.

hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Feb 12, 2012 at 01:58 PM..
 
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Sun Feb 12, 2012, 02:05 PM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Just my 2 cents

I think that after a re-raise of 3.x, this called for a call. Looking at the board, there's a flush possibility, a straight possibility, then of course you have the sets and the 2 pairs possibility. Since it was early in the tournament and you had no read on the player, I don't care about what the books say or any mathematical formula says, it's not worth the risk to be eliminated this early.

 
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Sun Feb 12, 2012, 03:45 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Ov3rsight!

I'd have most likely gone bust here too, but there are two other things that I noticed in the hand.

Is a raise to 4BB your standard raise preflop at this level? If it is, that's ok. If it's not, then I'd want to make a standard raise.

On the flop, there are both a flush and straight draw, along with a possible combo draw (and many opps will play any two suited cards early in a tourney). With the combo draw, the opp has 9 outs to the flush and 3 each for the ends of the possible OESD. This makes 15 possible outs if they possibly have it.
For the opp to call 120 on the flop, this is only 29% pot equity... compared to the 30% hand equity for one street. Due to this, I'd have made a larger bet (pot sized) on the flop, so that I could price this type of draw out.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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