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You choose the ACTION, Hand #2 (The Flop #1)

View Poll Results: What do we do on the flop action?
1) FOLD 1 7.14%
2) CALL 9 64.29%
3) RAISE small, making it $115 to go (min raise of $40 more) to $150 to go (1.875 times raise) 0 0%
4) RAISE medium, making it $151 to $195 to go (3 times raise) 1 7.14%
5) RAISE large, $196 to All In to go. 2 14.29%
6) BLANK (For me to use to track votes. Please do not choose.) 1 7.14%
Voters: 14. You may not vote on this poll

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You choose the ACTION, Hand #2 (The Flop #1) - Mon Feb 13, 2012, 04:44 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Ok folks, time to pick up the action on the flop!

We see the flop 4 way, with $87 in the pot. The flop comes 9c Kc 7d.

The Kid in the BB takes a moment to think, then checks.

Mid 30's guy in seat 9 flashes a quick glance at the Dentist, and announces "Bet. $35." and tosses $35 out in front of him with a bit of a flamboyant arc.

The Dentist looks at us for a brief second, and we hear what we think is a low growl in his throat. He then glares at the guy in seat 9 and says loudly, "I raise!" and somewhat violently pushes $75 into the pot.

The kid sort of sits back in his chair, and exhales through pursed lips, and picks his card protector up off his cards.

Action is on us...

Graphic of Flop Action:



What do we do?

1) FOLD
2) CALL
3) RAISE small, making it $115 to go (min raise of $40 more) to $150 to go (1.875 times raise)
4) RAISE medium, making it $151 to $195 to go (3 times raise)
5) RAISE large, $196 to All In to go.
6) BLANK (For me to use to track votes. Please do not choose.)

Please remember to post why you vote for the selection you choose to give us discussion points!

Thanks.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Feb 13, 2012 at 04:57 AM..
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 07:03 AM
(#2)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
I folded pre-flop, so I'm not voting.

Interesting advice by better players notwithstanding, I stick to my decision, it's the way I would have played it... that's probably why they are better players, but with my limited experience, I have to be a bit of a nit, and I still think my get-out-the-way&watch choice wasn't too bad, regardless of the flop.
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 09:32 AM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
i don't want anyone blown off this pot just yet, so i'll flat. we have a huge draw, and would love to keep everyone in i can at this point. we shouldn't have any prob. gettin' it in by the river with the SPR we have going.
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 12:31 PM
(#4)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
I voted call, we have a huge draw but no made hand. We're drawing to 4 8's, 4 Q's or 7 clubs (9 minus the 8 and Q of clubs). This translates to roughly a 60% chance of improving, I think it's worth the price.
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 01:19 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
I voted Call Also.

(yes i voted to fold pre but i'm just presuming i was having a rush of blood to the chip hand and i'm in the pot with you guys.)

Plus our 3 8's or 3 Q's for the straight

We have a draw to 2nd nut flush which is good against our guy who hates hands go after the flop and i can only see red mist dentist.

$197 in the pot and i need to call $75 (2.62: 1)

I toyed with the idea or raising but i think i want to keep 30'S guy around for a bit not just aim for dentist stack but rather to go for both. Stacks are set up so we should get it all in by the river. I would be worried that a flush card may freeze the action but against this two i'm not sure thats true.

I'm also bracing myself to call a raise by 30's guy.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 01:27 PM
(#6)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
5

monster draw, i want to see all 5 cards and i have very good equity.

i'm shoving and if everyone folds i collect nearly 200 with J-high.
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 01:57 PM
(#7)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I have voted to CALL.

Our draws are too many and too big to go away, and I am sure we have good equity even against made hands that will call a reraise here, but I'm not too happy committing a lot more chips at this stage while we only have J high. The big hands I would beware of, i.e. KK or AcQc that are ahead AND can outdraw us would be small in number and the very top end of the range I can put any opponent on, but they are a possibility given the action so far, so I would continue whilst being a bit cautious and reevaluate on the turn. The raise already made, with our call and probably a call behind is building the pot sufficiently at this stage with two more streets to come, so if we hit huge I think we will be able to get it all in.

If we get a reraise behind I might have to rethink whether to fold or shove.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 03:29 PM
(#8)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
I'm calling. Excellent flop for us and with the two villains paying more attention to each other than to us I like our spot and we're in position.

I like the call more than a raise so we can try and keep both villains in the pot for if/when we hit our hand. I'm hoping to stay quiet by calling and let them go at each other and let them increase the size of the pot here.
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 05:17 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I'm calling.

Calling is $75 into a pot that will be 272 (27.6%)
15 outs has 60% equity to the river or 30% to the turn.

I dont' want to raise without a made hand, but the hand equity is more than the pot equity... so I'm calling.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 07:24 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi All...

Edinfreeman touched on this a bit, but really did not elaborate much...

The question I have for the group is:

What do we RANGE our opponents on for taking this sort of line in their actions?

Most folks are concentrating solely on OUR holding, and while that is good for us to consider, is that ALL we should be thinking about here?

Shouldn't we at least THINK about what our opponents might have?

If we follow the tenets of REM thoughts, we first range, then we determine our equity, and then we MAXIMIZE the benefit to us with our decision.

If we simply look at the value of OUR hand, are we following through on REM thoughts, or are we merely allowing ourselves to be card dependant?

Who knows?

We can only know once we start to think about what hands our opponents might have, and what they may DO with those hands based on a variety of actions we may choose.

So has anyone got some thoughts about what the VILLAINS might have here?


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 07:43 PM
(#11)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Here's what I would range the opps on.

Seat 9 'the guy that won't fold until the river': limp/call pre, then bet flop. I'd be putting this opp on a K, 9, 7 or draw. Some sort of speculative hand that hit a part of the board. He didn't have a good enough hand to raise preflop, which is why I'm putting him on something speculative.

Tilty the Dentist: This looks similar to the hand where he showed AK, but may be doing so with somewhat less, if he really is on tilt (which may or may not be the case). If the dentist did have a K, then he doesn't have a single card flush draw. The only club hand I'd be even remotely worried about would be A7. He's obviously focused on trying to isolate seat 9 as payback from his big loss.... so could be doing this with much less than AK. I'm hoping that he is thinking only with seat 9, which can allow us to steal the pot right out from under him if we hit. If the guy in seat 9 calls, then I don't want to raise here, because he should be firing again especially if seat 9 stays.

Kid: looks frustrated because he missed the flop and is going to fold. Not worried about him due to that... if he calls, then it's time to rethink things with him.

I'm hoping that seat 9 and Tilty get into a battle that neither back down from.... I hit and take the pot out from underneath them both.


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 08:19 PM
(#12)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Our hand has tons of outs and decent equity against opps ranges so I would definitely call $75 to win $270 & possibly $305 as most probably the mid 30's guy will call another $35 to see the turn card. Additionally we have very good implied odds if we make our hand.

Also we can be fairly certain that we are not going to face a 3Bet from the mid 30's guys as he limp-called pre-flop so I am putting him on small suited connectors (7c,6c/8c,7c/8c,6c).

Since the dentist is the original raiser he could easily have A,K / K,Q or even Ac,Qc (we can be pretty certain from the dentist's bet that he has a good hand as it looks like a value bet similar to his previous A,K) so I would be a bit cautious if we hit the flush. However off suit 8 or Q will give us nut straight and hopefully 2 pairs to one of the opp.

Cheers
 
Old
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Mon Feb 13, 2012, 10:55 PM
(#13)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
ranges ..........

i think i'm definitely behind right now,

seat 9: K9-KQ, a pair up to 88

dentist: similar but could have Ax and be bluffing

bb: anything


i'm definitely shoving to take it down now,sets or 2 pair aren't folding, of course, but i don't mind that,i want to fold a single Ac and pairs.

fold and pot equity makes it a shove to me.

oh and they can't possibly have AA or KK because they had them last hand !!!

Last edited by Django66; Mon Feb 13, 2012 at 10:58 PM..
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 05:53 AM
(#14)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Im flat calling all day long,we havent a made hand at this stage but are big favourite with such a good flop. ranging I think the kid as missed completely with medium pair,the dentist is proper annoyed that his qq has just been out drawn,and the 30s guy maybe ak,
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 07:52 AM
(#15)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
just gonna throw this out there for the group to ponder.
i don't know if anyone noticed, as no one has mentioned this thus far. (that i know of)
our tilty, mouthy, whale is back to being loud and boisterous again.
when he actually had a hand he was calm an quiet so as to not bring attention to himself (a pretty common tell of strength at low stakes anyway)
i'm pretty darn sure we're behind here, but, we probably have the most equity and most if not all of our outs are live.
just some food for thought peeps
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 03:12 PM
(#16)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi folks!

Tonight I am going out to play live, so I may not get back in time to update this evening. If not, I will get to it first thing in the morning.

Nice discussions btw...

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 03:47 PM
(#17)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
ok, we are obviously calling now.

what's everybody's plan if we brick the turn and face a bet or 2 ?

mind you, we could still face the shove from seat 9 on the flop and around 400 to call to win ~ 700ish if the dentist folds, are you calling that?

interesting, i'd really like lango's take on the situation.
 
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Reads and action to flop - Tue Feb 14, 2012, 03:59 PM
(#18)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Ok folks, time to pick up the action on the flop!

We see the flop 4 way, with $87 in the pot. The flop comes 9c Kc 7d.

The Kid in the BB takes a moment to think, then checks.

Mid 30's guy in seat 9 flashes a quick glance at the Dentist, and announces "Bet. $35." and tosses $35 out in front of him with a bit of a flamboyant arc.

The Dentist looks at us for a brief second, and we hear what we think is a low growl in his throat. He then glares at the guy in seat 9 and says loudly, "I raise!" and somewhat violently pushes $75 into the pot.

The kid sort of sits back in his chair, and exhales through pursed lips, and picks his card protector up off his cards.

Action is on us...

What do we do?

Thanks.

-JDean
Observation:

‘Sparky’ in the BB pauses and checks – My read is that it seems like he isn’t interested in this hand, because he just acted deflated, and removed his card protector.

New Guy ‘donks’ enticingly into the PFR (dentist) – this seems like a real strong hand (not a semi-bluff). My read is that he plays a ‘passive’ game. If he has reads, he doesn’t think (nor does he want) this bet to scare the dentist off. My specific read is that he has a 'set' of 9's or 7's.

Dentist looks at me (clears his throat), then glares at the ‘new guy’ – then boisterously announces he’s raising, and proceeds to thrust a small raise into the pot. My read is that he has connected with the flop in some way, and may have a strong made hand (but probably not a set).

My hand - Villains possible hands – What we’re afraid of:
I hit the flop hard – I’m looking at a double gutter as well as a (straight) flush draw. My biggest concern is will I have the best flush if I hit a club? Let’s examine who may or may not have AQ, Ax, or Qx of clubs. Sparky might have started this hand with Ax of clubs; he still has to act behind me (was he putting on an act?). The new guy seems to be a passive player, and wouldn’t donk into the PFR (dentist) with Ax. The dentist is a wild card that might have raised PF, and continued his aggression over a donk bet with AcQc (one combination), but there are so many other combinations the dentist would do that with, such as, KK+, AK, 99, 77, possibly JTs+, 5 % ‘air’.

I have about 40% equity in this hand against 'sets', and need to invest around 15% of my stack. My implied odds are much greater vs. the investment needed to continue. A shove at this point is unwise for many reasons; Sparky is sitting behind us, yet to act (little to no concern, at the moment); no fold equity over the new guy (he’s not folding a set - which has more equity than my hand); showing such strength, I may lose the dentist; it’s not the best way to maximize my winnings (nor minimize my losses) with these dynamics. I feel that even with a scare card on the 'turn' (one that completes any of my draws), the new guy, and dentist will continue to bleed chips.

There is a possibility that there will be a reraise behind me, I should try to evaluate my ‘effective odds’ (odds when facing the likelihood of future bets, or lack of). Against the new guy and the dentist, I’m willing to stack it off right now, but if Sparky is still in the pot, I will need to reevaluate. If Sparky was putting on an act, he is the only player that I feel may dominate my flush draw (except for the dentist’s exact combo of AcQc). If that is the case, I will need to hit 1 of the 7 remaining cards, that would give me the ‘turned’ ‘nut straight’ (can’t count the 8c – may flush Sparky up). Even then I can be out drawn on the river by Sparky and/or sets.

My best line is to ‘call’, and reevaluate after further action.
.
 
Old
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 04:27 PM
(#19)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by Django66 View Post
ok, we are obviously calling now.

what's everybody's plan if we brick the turn and face a bet or 2 ?

mind you, we could still face the shove from seat 9 on the flop and around 400 to call to win ~ 700ish if the dentist folds, are you calling that?

interesting, i'd really like lango's take on the situation.
I think Lango has been told to hold back until we all have a shout or two - otherwise we would all follow his lead. (I know 0.000000003% of the s(hit)uff he knows.

I do like your comment on what us 'callers' plan to do next - the overall plan is crucial. Although you have already put the final phase of your plan into action with a shove, which is a good option, no more decisions, If we call, are we going to give up on the turn to a blank for our huge outs?

Against big action, I think possibly yes. We think we are behind. 1 card to see - might be too much to pay. Right now, with big outs, two cards to come, and a cheapish call - I think it is fine.

I dont really do math but from my attempts to learn equity ratios I think we have maybe as much as 40% pot equity against reasonable ranges for the opps, but very little fold equity, but then again huge implied odds.

Now this is where my understanding of equity gets confused. Overall we are probably mathematically correct to get it all in now.

But here, do we really need to put it in? The cards that come next will deliver us a huge hit or blow. If I can see that card cheap I would rather know how to reevaluate than pay huge to see it (if as I assume we have little fold equity) we will see it anyways.

Anyone of our opps on a good made hand will be happy to get it in against draws - although they probably wont anticipate the amount and strength of draws we hold.

So I see the benefits of a big shove (whether called or folded to), but I like the option to call, hit and really stack these opps. If there is a shove behind on the flop I think then we have to get in now.

Lango's opinion still awaited of course.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Tue Feb 14, 2012 at 04:30 PM..
 
Old
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 04:52 PM
(#20)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdinFreeMan View Post
I So I see the benefits of a big shove (whether called or folded to), but I like the option to call, hit and really stack these opps.Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
that's one of the problems, though, because, if we hit hard it's obvious and it could kill the action, we might only stack them if we are beat, imo.
 

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