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Did I miss out on some value here (1)

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Did I miss out on some value here (1) - Tue Feb 14, 2012, 12:49 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Finished 3rd in this $1.50 27man SnG. That was too bad, because I needed a 2nd place to break the $100 profit barrier. Oh well, next time

Anyways - final table time, I managed to crawl my way up to chipleader. 10 handed I was actually bottom of the board with less than a starting stack, but then I shoved with AK and after using up his timebank, I got called by AT. The first step towards greatness :P0

Here's the hand:



The question is: did I lose value here?

Preflop I have the AQ suited in the hijack, two limpers, so I raise to a littlle over . the CO calls and we're heads up to the flop. An ace flops, I bet a little over half pot, he calls. The turn's pretty good far as I am concerned, so I bet about half pot again, thought it be less this time. He calls again, so by now I'm starting to get worried about what he might be having. River's pretty much a blank as well, and I decide to check-call any reasonable bet he makes. He bet's 1/3 pot, so that's an easy call, and the pot's mine.

questions:
* turn: I like my just-over-half-pot bet on the flop. Was my turn bet too small? Had I made it half pot, there woulda been 600 more in the pot.
* river: opponents 1400 bit is ridiculous. 1/3 pot giving me way too good odds on a call, not to mention he leaves himself too short. He shoulda checked behind or shoved there I think. A shove, I probably would have folded. This was an easy call. Correct?
But - should I have lead out on the river as well? If I had, it would have to be for 2500 or so, almost half my stack. So if I bet - I think a shove would be in order. But shoving 32 BBs into a 26 BB pot with just top pair? Granted, no flush possible, and I'm not putting him on a straight here (7,9), but a set or Ax hitting two pair is definitely possible.

Quite frankly I was shocked to see him flip over the 8,7 suited. Calling a preflop raise with that, well I can live with it - suited connector in position. Calling my flop bet? He musty have thought I wouldn't have the ace. But floating with no draw at all whatsoever? If he planned on stealing the pot, he should have re-raised me on the flop or turn before the pot got too big to make a believable bluff.
Turnbet - he's getting pot odds of 41% to draw to a flush of 19% to hit. Bad call imho.

Ideas on my thoughts here?

-------------------------------------------------
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 02:03 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Hard to say how your line was with no reads on the villain involved.

His river bet ridiculous? I don't see any reason for it, since the ace likely isn't folding to any bet size (although you sound like you're looking for reasons to fold it), and he's beating most of your other holdings so he has showdown value. His river bet serves to bluff you off a ten or higher pocket pair. That's about it, so far as I can see (although I did just wake up, maybe I'm wrong).

I agree that you should be calling that river bet, but against randoms I'm not going to give credit for a better hand at any point. If you have a read on this guy saying that he's really good, I can see some justification for being cautious, but I think this is a spot where if you're beat, it's sort of a cooler. After your c-bet (which I think is a good bet), the pot is too big to allow you to fold TPGK without the situation being super-special. I also think that regardless of who you're against, weaker aces will still be in their range at least some of the time, so don't be afraid to bet.

Anyway, I would just hope the guy has something that'll call and shove the turn. Betting small OTT and again OTR also has merit, if you think the guy's a fish who won't call an all-in but who will dwindle his stack.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Feb 14, 2012 at 02:05 PM..
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 04:01 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Ov3rsight!

Preflop, I'd make the exact same open raise. My standard here is 2.5BB, so that's what I'd go with. The cutoff calls, so I'm seeing the flop out of position.

The flop gives me top pair/2nd kicker and with a possible straight draw out there due to the 10, I definitely want to make a c-bet here. The value bet sizing of just over 1/2 pot does price out the draw.

The turn brings in a flush draw and multiple straight draws (or combo draws). I would make a value bet here again, but I want to be sure that the sizing of it prices out any draw that the opp could have. A combo flush and inside straight has 12 outs, so I need to be sure that the opp pays more than 24% in pot equity. By only betting 1200 here, the opp only has to put in 22.7% pot equity (so if they have a combo draw, they ARE priced in to see the river). I would have made the same type of bet as on the flop. A 1/2 pot bet will raise the opp's pot equity to 25% and a slightly larger bet raises it even higher. Due to this, I'd have made a turn value bet of 1500.

The river is a blank unless the opp has 79, which should have been folded on the flop. In this situation, the only way that I would check to the opp is if I had a read that the opp has always bet the river, whether ahead or behind. Unless I know for certain that the opp will bet, I want to make another value bet on the river. I'd size the value bet at about 1750 (1/3 pot). Large enough to get some value, but small enough that I could be called by worse hands.
When checked and the opp bets, I like the call here. I only have one pair and with opps that without a read, could be playing Ax and hit two pair, I'll call and see what the opp shows, as top pair/2nd kicker definitely has showdown value.

The opp's river bet was surprising (must have put you on KQ, QJ, KJ). But the most surprising play by the opp was the flop call. The only way that they can win against any made hand needs runner/runner. If I was the opp I'd have folded preflop, or at least on the flop that missed.
The one call that the opp DID make correctly was the turn call, as thier combo draw was priced in due to the value bet that was too small to price the opp out.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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