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Did I miss out on some value here (2)

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Did I miss out on some value here (2) - Tue Feb 14, 2012, 01:08 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Another hand, a few hands later.



thought process:

ramesz is sitting out, Poka and Amelie are playing like they really know what they're doing, not so fond of the quality of play from andres and KRYTICAL. I'd been playing like a nit all day long, and basically played 3 hands to get me from that less-than-starting-stack stack to this one. 2 of those 3 hands were at the final table, and all went to showdown, so they could have a pretty decent idea about the nit that is me.

It's folded to andres in the small, who limps in. He's doing that all the time, and 8handed that's not good play, just what I meant. So I raise. I've seen him limp-fold before, so I don't really care about my hand at this point. I also have a huge stack compared to his, so if he raises or calls I'm pretty much done with the hand. Punish the limpers, as I like to do. I chose a 3x raise here since he already limped in, whereas I'd raise 2-2.5x in an unlimped pot. To my surprise, he calls. Oh well. I blew off 3% of my stack. I'll live.

Flop is actually not that bad: 3 clubs giving me a flush draw. I definitely do not thibnk he has an ace. Just a gut feeling, haven't seen him play an ace yet, but I think he might have raised my blind had he had one. What I did see from him, I didn't think he was the trappy kind. He checks to me, and with no pair and a baby draw, I'm checking back. If I bet and he calls, what then... I have nothing, and even if he has nothing, his nothing is likely still better than my nothing. I'm also at this point not counting on my flush being good if it hits. Sure - a flush is rare enough, let alone flush over flush, but #9 at this table busted out when he flopped a flush. Too bad the other guy flopped a better flush.

Turn, the flush hits. I would have preferred a club over my 5, but still. A flush is a flush. He bets 600. I'm getting 3 to 1 on a call here. I think that's good enough to call the turn bet and see what he does on the river. If he bets big, I'mm muck, if he bets small, I'll call to see if my flush is good. Only problem is, this kind of play is one of the places where I'm losing chips. Still, I was not able to fold the flush to this bet.

The river's a blank. I doubt it improved his hand, so there's two options: he has a club and I'm beat, or he doesn't and I'm good. Not really putting much faith in him having the 2 or 3 if he made a flush too. But he checks. At this point, I checked back to get to showdown. If I bet, then what? I'd have to make it about 1k-1.5k at least. But what woudl he call with?

a] he has nothing, or something and is too scared of the 4 clubs - he folds.
b] he has a flush - he calls, or shoves and I have to fold.

aka: I doubt betting here would do me any good, but is that thinking correct? Would it have been better to bet the turn and test the waters? Or should I make the value bet on the river anyway?

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keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 02:29 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Limping in the small blind is not a bad play in and of itself. The guy's getting almost 5-to-1 to see a flop, and he may have a read on you saying that raising would not be profitable. Raising would also put him in the awkward position of risking upwards of 5% of his remaining stack to see a flop that will have a huge pot if you call. If I were him I'd probably raise you with most hands if I had the nit-read, but I think limping there is fine on his part.

On your part, I think the raise is not that good unless you have a read that the guy's limp/folding a ton. Not just having seen him do it once or twice, but having seen him do it a lot. He's only really sitting on ~15bb after accounting for the antes, which means you're only really sitting on ~15bb. If you raise and he calls, you've just made a huge pot with a terrible hand. If you check instead, you're getting infinite pot odds to catch a flop. It's sort of a playing-it-safe route, but I don't see much value in taking the risky route against a random with a bad ten-high.

I like the flop check because the pot is big enough, you don't have a hand, and your draw is weak. The turn call is good imo, but you should be planning your river action if he bets again before you call the turn (vital to plan at least one street in advance so you don't get stuck and make a play that you'll regret later). Given the strength of your flush, I also like the river check. I don't think anything worse is calling.

Seems to me that your post-flop thought processes are fairly solid. Nothing really stands out to me as incorrect there. Congrats on the $100ish profit, BTW.
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 05:18 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Ov3rsight.

I think you've done a pretty good analysis of your hand.

I like your thinking to punish the limper and raise him out of the hand if he is doing this alot. But Panicky brings up a good point on the strength of your hand. It's terrible . So I would also want a good read that this guy that he limps a ton (maybe 100%) of his range. Then i think we can excert the pressure and get alot of folds. If he is limping every blind and this is the first time you are fighting back, may as well choose a better hand to begin the fight back. If we've raised his limp a few times already and he's folded I like the raise, as you mention it's a very small portion of your stack.

On the flop yeah, ugly, he's hit alot of hands or draws he's check calling with so a bad spot to push a weak draw or bluff.
On the turn. He leads out. I think I'm with you. I would call once to catch any bluffs but I'm not putting any more money in.
On the river he checks. I think even alot of bigger flushes will check call you here. 2 pairs and straights are very unlikely. I wouldn't bet here either.

I don't think you've missed out on much/any value. I think you've played it pretty well. His hand is wierd, just wierd it would be pretty difficult to cater for.

I do disagree with Panicky on one point. Preflop I think this guys play is terrible. Limping 94o. He's not actually getting 5:1 odds. He's only potentially getting 5:1. He only gets 5:1 odds if no-one ever puts any more money in for the rest of the hand. But thats pretty unlikely. Ov3rsights raise proves the fact he's not getting 5:1. When he calls after that OMG. When he shows up with 2 pair OMG

I hope you hit the $100 mark.

Good Luck
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 09:33 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
He limps 94s, not 94o (makes a pretty big difference imo). Although with the antes as they are, there's a case to be made for limping ATC here. Not to say that the villain's play was good in this specific scenario, but here's the concept I think is interesting about this hand:

Let's say that from the SB's perspective, the pot odds on a limp are exactly 5-to-1. Now lets say that the BB will raise 50% of hands. We'll also assume that 100% of the time the BB raises, the SB will fold. Since 50% of the SB's limps will get through, the pot odds to see a flop after limping are cut in half. In this scenario, the pot odds on a limp are still 2.5-to-1, which are good enough for a fit-or-fold approach to the hand. What I infer from this is that, assuming we have enough postflop playability to not lose money simply because we're OOP, we're getting sufficient pot odds to limp ATC. The only obstacle here preventing the SB from doing that profitably is the fact that he'll be OOP, but I don't think that justifies a fold all by itself. It might justify folding 94o, but folding suited cards with this kind of dead money seems overly positionally aware to me.
 
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Tue Feb 14, 2012, 10:23 PM
(#5)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Panicky,

My bad on the 94s. I don't think it does much at all to redeem his play though. 2.5:1 is terrible odds to play a hand of this strength OOP.

If it's folded round to the SB and SB can't bring themselves to fold a hand like this they should atleast raise it.

If you minraise (or 2. or something) in this spot. Vs the tight BB that lets you get away with limping you are probably winning the pot without showing down half the time or better. Sometimes they are flatting and you are still getting your 2.5:1 odds to see the flop OOP with some rags. When they 3b you, it shows alot more strength than BB raising a limper and you can fold even more comfortable.
Also additional value comes in taking the lead in the hand when he does call you light from BB you can look to represent a hand of strength on some flops (even like this one) and take down the pot with a C-Bet.

Limping in this spot is just giving money away. This villian definately got what he deserved

Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Wed Feb 15, 2012, 01:26 AM
(#6)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
hey over,

pre - love the play attack the limper

flop - i think for me it's better that continue your aggression if your not doing this very much to let him fold because you don't have a hand just a weak draw it's better to win it right now because you have the initiative pre and if he called or 3bet i'll give up

but you check so it's good

turn he bet's 600 i'll call also because of a small bet meaning he's not so sure of his hand either. if he bets 75% of the pot i will give up already

river definitely a check no miss value here

great play
 

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