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2NL FR: QQ overpair

2NL FR: QQ overpair - Tue Feb 14, 2012, 01:44 PM
ah309's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 7
Hi guys, played this hand last night, I *think* I played it right, but looking for some analysis.

Villain limps on the Button. Plays 47 / 7 / 27 but this is only from 15 hands. Very loose passive from the short time at the table, called a few raises but folded most and won pennies on another. No other information from the other 14 hands regarding cards he played.

My stats for the session were around 26 / 15 / 73 (from 40~ hands). I had won a few small pots and lost a couple of hands to 3bets and Cbets. I was trying to stick to solid starting hands after a lot of downswing recently.

My questions would be about my bet sizing and timing. Should I have raised all in on the flop? I didn't want to raise preflop for fear of scaring the limper off. Perhaps a flop all in would have scared him off the pot, but with my overpair I wanted to extract as much money as possible from him.

Any feedback on this hand is appreciated

Last edited by ah309; Tue Feb 14, 2012 at 01:50 PM.. Reason: Removing result
Tue Feb 14, 2012, 02:16 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Hi ah309.

While you did extract maximum value from your hand here, I think by keeping the pot smaller than it needed to be early in the hand, you greatly increased your risk; either for losing the hand, or for failing to extract as much value as possible.

You see ah309, hands like QQ, the big pp, are the sorts of hands that usually do not improve the deeper you get into the board. As such, they usually "prefer" to build a big pot EARLY, as that allows a simplification of later streets decisions.

Everything you have to go on in the way of info seems to point to the fact that this opponent is a calling station type. As such, I do not think you really need to "fear" a pre flop raise pricing him off his hand in my opinion. The main "mistake" that C.S. players make is that they CALL too much, so when you hold a hand like QQ, you may as well let him make that mistake by raising early. I think in your spot, I would have raised, making it around 8c to go (at least), and possibly even as large as 12c to go versus a true "calling station" (we only have 15 hands on villain, so we cannot be really sure quite yet).

By doing this, you set up an SPR going to the flop of somewhere between 4.8 and 7 (depending on the raise size chosen), and either SPR will tend to allow you to commit to what will normally be an over pair hand EARLIER, thus denying a passive player maximum chance to draw at whatever "cheese" hand he elected to call on.

You see Ah309, what I really do not "get" is why you are "scared" of pricing this villain off the pot pre flop, but you are willing to take a VERY aggro C/R line on the flop?

Wouldn't this tend to "wake him up" to the chance that single pair hands he holds might be beat, and essentially win you the same amount you would have one by raising pre flop? Doesn't trying for a C/R on the flop to build your pot value ALSO give the villain a chance to "out flop" your QQ for "free"?

As it played out, it appears to me the C.S. villain did do what C.S. villains do so frequently; call all the way down with lesser hands than you are representing. This got you max value. But by failing to account for this player's seeming "leaks" in your pre flop decision, and by electing a "trickier" line, you tended to increase the chance that you would get beaten by keeping the pot smaller initially, thus forcing yourself to feed value in all the way thru to the river. That allows a player that calls too much to have maximum chance to draw at you...and THAT will tend to lead to a maximum number of suck outs (or it will lead to him giving up earlier, thus not getting you as much value as betting early would).

hope it helps.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Feb 14, 2012 at 02:58 PM..

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